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in 2022 I predict the Tesla stock price would be 260 by the end of 2023 what actually happened is the stock ended around 255 bucks per share which was a shees moment then in September of 2023 I made a stock price prediction for end of 2024 end of this year of 350 bucks per share and everybody was going like man you're dreaming it's wishful thinking it's never going to happen you're in la la land well guess what it happened literally on the dot one of those days and it's absolutely a shees moment that everyone's asking me how the heck did I do it my evaluations are down to earth realistic and taking account of everything macro environment and all that kind of stuff now I do mention in my prediction videos that hey these are just predictions they're not facts they they probably won't happen you never know what's going to happen in the future you just don't know but if these elements happen including fundamentals and macro environment then realistically this is a fair value for Tesla by end of this year if all this happens this is how I do my valuations and so far for a couple years now it's been on point and we're going to do the same thing for 2025 today is November 22nd and I'm predicting Tesla's 2025 price Target end of 2025 let's just say that cuz that's how I do them today so it's going to be a shish moment it's going to be an awesome moment I'm going to go through with you guys here quarter by quarter obviously I'm not going to take too much of your time but it's good to know know the details on how I did it now if you're a member on YouTube on this channel then you guys are seeing it first things first if you guys are you guys are awesome there's a lot of a lot more exclusive stuff coming just for you guys I love my YouTube members I really really do and if you guys watching this the next day on November 23rd then why aren't you guys a YouTube member there's a lot of great stuff discord's coming soon exclusive videos Early Access all those things are coming and it's little less just two bucks a month that's a way of supporting me but it's okay if you guys don't want to do that smashing that like button and hitting subscribe also helps just make sure you guys have that notification Bell on so you guys know when my videos hit so before we get right into it I do have to make a disclaimer I'm not a psychic I'm not from the future I don't this is not a crystal ball this is a moon that I got it from this website mooc Globes and if you guys want a link in description as well they're flipping awesome all the predictions that I make are just predictions so the prediction that I make today it may happen again third time if it happens fliping awesome if it doesn't well then it's just a prediction not the facts I'm not a financial adviser I'm just some guy who's going all the into T of stock because of FST and full stop driving and all the other stuff that you guys know if you guys have been following my channel for a long time so I got to make this disclaimer any prediction that I make in today's video is my official 2025 price Target prediction but it's just a prediction that is it without further Ado if you guys haven't already I know I asked before but smash that like button and let's get into my official 2025 price target for Tesla let's go no so here's my Tesla stock price prediction chart that I used to Value Tesla and other companies that I decide to invest in but so far at the moment it's just Tesla and yes this chart is available on patreon if you guys want access to it too you guys can go in there download the file and play around with it as well Link in the card in the corner but let's before we get into 2025 I do want to point one thing out in 2024 and Q3 these are official numbers by Tesla and this is the stock price today 338 bucks per share and a market cap almost reaching $1.1 trillion with 93p now in my Q4 prediction this is not my official numbers yet I just need more data from China Europe and North America to see what they could end off with by end of or the beginning of December end of November when we get more data I'm thinking about 500,000 Vehicles could be sold or delivered in Q4 and with that I can see all these numbers playing out operating margin a bit less than Q3 but nonetheless ending the year at around $100 billion in revenue and just $7.2 billion in net income gap cuz we got to go based on the Gap here that's important now you guys may know that to have the same stock price we need a PE of 163 to have the same stock price and the same valuation why because in Q4 of 2023 Tesla had a tax inherited loss that was slapped on I'm pretty sure we'll have it again this Q4 as well but nonetheless this just added on to damper PE and to give a boost to the EPS but in fundamentals it doesn't even really matter so the real PE if we don't get that tax in here loss again is around 163 just letting you guys know when we go to 2025 because I'm not in my valuation I'm excluding that because it's not part of the fundamentals it it's it's not and to speculate that doesn't make any sense so just letting you guys know that today's 93p and if we don't get a tax inheritance loss in Q4 that's a PE of 163 today and that's with better earnings too so that PE then is probably or now cuz that's what it is now it's probably over 180 right now just letting you guys know but when it comes to PE and Tesla it doesn't really matter it just helps me to know understand where the stock is if it's expensive to buy if it's right I think Tesla should be around the 10050 PES in my opinion for it to be around a fair value because it has a lot of things that it's not priced in that's I know it may sound crazy but I use this formula to get two years of my price Targets on The Flipping dot so take it as you like but that's how I do things so that's 2024 that's all I want you guys to know about 2024 let's go to 2025 because it's going to get real juicy man going quarter by quter is very important because we get more detailed information which at the end helps with the stock price and all that kind of stuff let's get into it in q1 of 2025 before I put the vehicle deliveries in for each quarter let me go over each column as it'll answer a lot of your questions at the end trust me so average selling price per each vehicle as you guys can see it's going down every quarter 39,800 all the way down to just below 39,000 by Q4 could even go lower if the affordable vehicles or when the affordable Vehicles go in Mass scale which probably won't happen until Q4 which you guys can see that big drop from Q3 to Q4 that would be an average selling price for the whole year of 39,380 650 million every single quarter a little bit less than 202 24s but nonetheless I think oems are so behind I don't or and Ice vehicles are so behind companies that they need to buy credits especially the ones in Europe so I think this is still going to be very high in 2025 Services practice increases by about 30% in revenue and nearly 50% in their gross profits compared to 2024 leasing Revenue goes up because interest rates are going down so that's going to help more people lease the vehicles in fact I think it should be more because we're getting interest rates going lower and lower people finance and you know they get a lease on their vehicle rather than paying full in cash so we're going to see this increase nicely insurance at 1.5 billion for the whole year of 2025 with a 5% gross profit rate 2023 they did about half a billion in Revenue which is insane 2024 will know in the first few days of 2025 it's probably going to be double that and I'm thinking a 50% growth on top of that as well because look how many cars they can ensure and the more States they enter they can ensure as well so I think this number could actually be even higher but you know me some of these things that are very hard to speculate and to predict I'll keep it conservative and I think 1.5 billion is pretty darn conservative vehicle grows profits q1 16% Q2 17.5 % because we have mass production in Q3 I brought it back down to 16.5% because they're ramping the affordable models as you guys know when they ramp new vehicles when Tesla ramps new vehicles or any products that tampers on the vle goes profits it becomes a cash furn for sometime think about the Cyber truck now it's profitable but that's how it is and then in Q4 17.4 going back to what it is ending the year total as an average of 16.99% I mean that was the number that I concluded to or that's when it averaged out to and I'm just like that that's pretty hilarious that's funny I also have here FSC Global Revenue at 500 million in q1 and 650 850 and a billion in Q4 with an 80% gross profits ending at 2.4 billion for 2025 and $3 billion in Revenue in Q3 of 2024 this quarter that just passed by they did about 326 billion or sorry 326 million in FSD sales Q4 could be as high as 400 so I'm thinking q1 could be 500 so we're getting some numbers here and there they haven't officially have this on their income statement yet but I think in 2025 things will change because Robo taxi is going to hit the road in two states at least and I have it here that in the first two quarters nothing will happen but in Q3 10 million or at least 200 Vehicles will be robot taxis and then in Q4 will be 700 800 being around 1,000 robot taxis on the road collecting around $45 million in revenue and and if they take around a 28% or 30% cut from these Robo taxes from the model 3 Model y users or drivers that's about $13.5 million some are saying it can starting early as Q2 which if that's the case then even more profits and revenue in my opinion but I think Q3 keeping things conservative that's when it'll start energy oh man energy is going to be 2025 is going to be the year of energy they're saying it's going to be the year of robot taxi I think it's the start of the robot taxi but in terms of Revenue and profits oh man the energy is going to be flipping awesome in 2025 you guys can see it quarterly here which ends up about 15.5 almost billion in revenue and over 4.2 billion in Gross profits which is insane that's like what 70 80% growth compared to last year and revenue is about 50% growth so I think these are realistic numbers when we have Shanghai coming in as well and that's going to ramp pretty fast too going to the operating cost I think it's going to be around $12.2 billion for the entire year taxes of 2.2 billion now yes this may be more but I know Trump is going to reduce taxes for everybody so I took that into account but I think I should increase this one as well but we'll see we'll always update this every quarter as this one is a little bit hard and tricky to predict as well other income here about 1.1 billion which would be interest income and Etc all that kind of stuff stock based compensation is going to be 1.65 billion and of course shares outstanding keeps getting diluted because they not doing any BuyBacks or anything so these are the numbers that I think will happen that's not vehicle related and such which it's on it's growth it's just screaming growth here which is absolutely awesome especially energy and robot taxi and Fs okay I mean let's let's not get carried away I'm flipping excited let's put the numbers quarter by quarter this is what I think q1 deliveries could be in 2025 455,000 Vehicles now before you guys go like oh no man if they're going to do 500,000 vehicle deliveries in Q4 this should be at least 460 470 475,000 Vehicles you're right but I like to you know be conservative with my delivery numbers in these things now it gets crazy here as we go by the quarters of course but I like to keep things realistic you guys already know that q1 is just not a good quarter for any sales or any vehicles or just any retail it's a q1 is just not a good quarter so there's going to be lower deliveries than anyone thinks that's why I have 455,000 vehicles we put that in and Bam look at all these numbers coming I love it so right off the bat you guys can see total Gap gross margin of 19.9% you guys can see operating margin of 99.5% so we're going back to the single digits but that's expected it's q1 of 202 5 don't get worked up or anything it's normal it's normal but 9.5 gets you a net income gap of almost 2.3 billion non gap of 2.6 billion EPS non gap of 75 which if you compare to 2024 that's better than q3s which that is that quarter surprised everybody that's actually pretty good moving on to Q2 I think in Q2 they can deliver 525,000 vehicles and Bam look at that total Gap gross margin of 20 21% look at the operating margin of 11.1% that's absolutely insane that's a net income of 3.1 billion and a non- gap of 3.5 billion that's a dollar in EPS non gap which is absolutely a shees moment but we're not done here yet and yes usually I do the stock price prediction for every quarter but let's just focus on the year end let's just focus on the year end I'll have another video on that later I don't want this video to be so long or too long in Q3 of 2025 I think it'll be around 580,000 vehicle deliveries and look at that we get obviously we get a little dip here because of 16.5 that's a lower vehicle gross profits due to the ramp of the new affordable Vehicles which that'll bring the that'll tamper the gross profits a little bit until they can get it to scale which I do think they'll get it to scale pretty darn quickly that's a gap gross margin of 20.6% the good thing is we're in 20% that is a big waler is going to love it waler is going to absolutely love it operating margin dips down to 10.8% with a net income gap of 3.3 billion and a non gap of 3.7 billion that's a EPS nonap of a16 and moving on for the end year I think this is going to be one of the greatest quarters Q4 of 2025 around 640,000 Vehicles because again the affordable vehicles are going to come in and that's going to help and interest rates are lower people are looking going back to purchasing vehicles and stuff like that bam look at that overall 2.2 million vehicle deliveries for 2025 which is about a 23 or 22% increase from 2024 Elon set between 20 to 30% % so I took it in the 20 23% I think this would make sense given the fact that they're going to ramp up new models then that'll take some time think 2.2 million does make sense for 2025 so in Q4 that is a total Gap gross margins of over 21% hitting a record actually in the past year or two so that's absolutely a shees moment look at the operating margin man 12% that's absolutely awesome and Q3 Q4 we are over 30 billions in revenue and Q4 that's nearly $36 billion 4 billion in net income gap and almost 4 over 4.4 billion in non Gap that is an EPS non gap of $125 that is insane we end off 2025 at a total revenue of15 billion and a net income gap of 12.6 billion which is an absolutely Ashish moment that's like nearly an 80% growth from 2024 so that is a ches moment so if you guys want to look at the opting margin quickly I do want to point this out to you guys in 2024 if if Q4 comes the way it is that's about the low 8% in operating margin while in end of 2025 we'll get close to 11% which is absolutely a shees moment it's absolutely a shees moment it's crazy and you guys can compare the full years of 2025 to 2024 with a numberb you guys can pause and take a look at it it's absolutely a shees moment now here comes the F par Peggy that's awesome the numbers look good and stuff like that you know it's better than 2024 just you know the e PPS non Gap look at that it's $46 compared to $263 of 2024's which is literally a 60 70% growth which is insane that's absolutely in flipping insane it's a shees moment that's great what's your price Target now what do you think is going to happen by end of 2025 based on all the numbers that I'm looking at and looking at the macro environment at that time knowing that interest rates will be low and if there's no Black Swan event that's important guys if there's a Black Swan event if World War II breaks out all bets are off like none of this will matter but if everything continues the way it is and you know Trump effect comes less regulation for FSD move we have robot taxi coming we have FSD going like crazy like I have it here we have vehicle deliveries growing the way they are and the operating Merchant all that kind of stuff I can see the PE remember guys paler is in the high 200s in PE it's crazy it's crazy and I don't see why Tesla can't do the same if we know that 2026 is going to be a monstrous year for Tesla I think if EPS non Gap ends at $4 we can probably end around $6 in 2026 maybe a little bit more as well if there's any major news that doesn't include here what the price track I'm going to tell you guys right now is absolutely very bearish maybe it's even bullish for some of you guys but this is based on what the fundamentals are at the end of it the macro environment at that time and what the effect would be from Trump which includes again the robot taxes and FSD all that kind of stuff if all this happens I can easily see a comfortable price target of 575 bucks per share or a PE of around 160 which again PE doesn't matter for Tesla it just shows you if the stock is cheap or expensive but knowing Tesla that has so much things that can bring in that needs to be priced in 16p I think it's actually a little conservative to give it for Q4 of 2025 I feel like it should be higher but I'll only add it in if Tesla goes like you guys can now pre-order the optimists and the Cyber cab this year if they do that oh man I can see the PE going as high as 180 even 200 to around the 700 marks I can see that easily but we're going based on none of that we're going based on what the numbers are going to be what the vehicle deliveries are going to be with the robo taxi sales and the FSD next year there's no Optimus there's no cyber cab which we know is going to be mass produced or volume produced in 2026 none of that this valuation includes the mega packs of Shanghai and LA rope so all that energy the vehicle deliveries the FSD the robo taxi the macro environment at that time this doesn't include any new announcements of new Giga factories no new announcements of mega pack factories no new announcement of any other thing nothing nothing just just this just this fundamentals current things FSD robot taxes energy credits uh lithium Refinery and that's going to bring the cogs down massively for Tesla and 2026 projection of robot taxis and all those other stuff no new products no no new products at all and if there is announcement of that then I can see it up north of 600 bucks 700 bucks and stuff like that I do see it and if Optimus comes in and they say you can order your Optimus some saying go it can go as high as 1,000 which is absolutely a sh Show but that's my price target for 2025 official price Target 575 bucks per share that's a market cap of over 1.8 trillion almost reaching $1.9 trillion so practically close to 2 trillion which is absolutely a shees moment at the moment it's 1.1 trillion that's about a 60% increase from now that's absolutely insane now the funny thing is some of you guys will say this is too bearish some of you guys will say this is too high but looking at it realistically fair value I'm talking about fair value guys I'm not talking about when putting in future things that could happen I'm saying fair value at the end of 2025 is 575 bucks per share that's what I think now I'm curious to know what you guys think what your price targets are for 2025 and I want to know in the comments below and and I want to know what you guys think about this price Target again comment below I'm very interested to know if you guys want this shet as well to play around with it you guys can get it in patreon as well now here's the thing I had Joe on this channel we talked about it we had a podcast he was saying that this thing can actually hit 1,000 bucks per share by end of 2025 if a lot of things happen technically not technically it's just crazy and he think the stock can reach 10,000 per share by 2025 by 20 2030 2030 not 2025 by 2030 it's a shees moment and you guys need to watch this podcast right here grab your popcorn because I was mind blown probably one of the most mindblowing podcast that I've ever been on it's just about Tesla it it's crazy check it out yall be disappointed get your about de t-shirt guys right here because hey 575 compared to now what is a 340 you bought the dip you bought the dip subscribe guys and I shall see you guys in the next video see you
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