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deep seek is the teu of AI just like Teemu was going to kill Amazon that's exactly how we view deep seek these opportunities 25 years cover in Tech the Bears sound smart when they come out of their caves when they're in hibernation modood the Bulls make money Dan yeah great to be here yeah thank you yeah the the global head of Technology research for Bush Securities deep seek deep let's talk about it deep I haven't even heard of that why is deep seek not a concern for Invidia look um competition in the AI Revolution is going to happen and and we've always viewed commodation of llms of models is ultimately the path now in terms of deep seek in terms of 6 million to produce a model this good with no Nvidia h100 I mean it's the same chance that I'm playing in the NBA for the Lakers uh you know in terms of the the chances that that's actually right so I think part of this issue is the street navigating what's the facts versus what aren't the facts in no way does this disrupt the AI Revolution thesis two trillion of AI capb backs is going to happen over the next 3 years regardless of deep seek that clearly benefits Nvidia Microsoft Amazon paler and others you want me to stop it for you but we were basically saying with the uh Lakers analogies is a super low probability that it's actually true it's it's fictional it's fictional it's a Netflix show got it got it that deep seek spent 6 million and didn't use Nvidia gpus to produced it I think this was one of the probably top three most unwarranted sell-offs I've seen in Tech since covid 2020 deep seek in no way changes the path of AI spend whether it's 80 billion from Microsoft 65 billion from meta and I just had a small LL model that consumers are interacting with is a lot different than literally 10,000x the capacity and algorithms needed to operate in an Enterprise so first we believe they had 30 to 50,000 Invidia h100 gpus to create so which is to level set in other words I don't believe what based on all the experts I've talked to as well as many in that they were able to produce what they're saying with no hardware and no GP so I think to levels I think that's an important to to start with yeah and then I would also add model open source models that's what meta has done the price of models and inference is going to continue to go down but that's a positive because you only have 4% of Enterprises in the US that are going down the AI path that means more computing power for use cases cheaper that ultimately more Enterprises are going to go down and right now the demand to supply for nvidia's chips are 15 to1 we've talked to 25 Enterprises over the last 48 hours that are going through seven and eight figure AI deployments zero of them have even flinched because of deep seek and say like deep seek is the teu of AI just like Teemu was going to kill Amazon that's exactly how we view deep seek and these opportunities 25 years cover in Tech the Bears sound smart when they come out of their caves when they're in hibernation mode the Bulls make money um let's just say if you go to Time Square and someone selling Hermes sneakers for $30 that's how I would equate deep seek in AI it's a great model yeah no one doubts that but to say that it was made $6 million with no Nvidia gpus is a fictional Netflix show why do you think so many people took it so seriously though like especially the the engineers um in Silicon Valley they all seem to have taken it pretty seriously no it's taken seriously in terms of the model that it's built the reaction from investers is way mispricing what it's going to do to spending in other words this is not some Black Swan moment that's going to change the AI spending trajectory it's a great model Chinese built that shows open source is going to continue to close the gap with you know Clos Loop like open AI being bullish on AI the llm models are just one small piece it's all about the data the use cases the algorithms and that's that's our view in other words like this is a panick selloff that's hugely mised even though it's it's a scary headline right so my follow next question was actually going to be on the potential implications to the hbm suppliers but my guess is that your view is that nothing changes my my view is I I'm not saying that you can have regardless of deep seek we are in the early days of a $2 trillion AI cap X and that's not changing because opensource model coming out of a lab and China is going to take down the US tech world that's really at the end of that's sort of our um our view after talking with dozens and dozens of Executives AI Engineers companies going down the path it's not just me being like you know my own view yeah yeah what about in the near- term over the next couple of quarters um do you see companies at least saying you know the traditional buyers of these uh Nvidia um gpus let us reassess at least even a little bit no because then you go to the back of the line there's no lack of Confidence from anywhere in the ecosystem I think this is going to be viewed as more of a golden buying opportunity and every year the last few years even going back to co we get call it 56 times a year pockets of that you could own these names and and and it's no different that's our Playbook because we believe we're less than halfway through a tech bull market with the Trump Administration that's going to clearly limit more and more export controls around chips especially as the bite Dan Tik Tock situation is playing out as we speak and I just continue to view that us will continue to have a massive lead over China because of the bigger players in the AI Revolution what about other types of Hardware like humanite robots autonomous I think when it comes to physical AI they will clearly be behind because physical AI it's not even a debate that would be in videoed and the export controls will hugely limit their ability on physical AI deep Seek You could argue all day long in terms of like what did they use is a 6 million is 100 million but no doubt a successful model they've built physical AI whole other ball game that I believe there are years behind us when it comes to physical AI because of the nature of Tesla Nvidia and of of course what we have with you know with weo and and Google let's shift gears to Apple yeah and I think Apple it's a good time to because what I noticed is um like Apple stocks been up during this whole period right and the question would be like why would Apple be up when the rest of tech is is really down it's our view Apple wins either way cuz it's not about llms they will be a platform that 25% of consumers around the world will access AI through whether it's us China Korea Middle East the double-edged sword the blessing and curse is that I think it took a deep seek to actually highlight to investors how apple is actually well POS positioned as a platform when's the Super Cycle coming the Apple iPhone super cycle it's my view the super cycle is a 2-year super cycle that started with 16 and goes through 17 and a good example despite all the doomsday predictions and obviously they will report tomorrow night they're going to do 230 to 235 million units this year is 15 million units more than the street predicted a year ago it speaks to my view haters hate and that's how they've missed the last two trillion in Apple's market cap what do you think the Chinese government wants long term obviously here in the States you know all this drama around Tik Tok you know the phone is becoming more and more of Our Lives I mean it it's access to our lives right which is why Tik Tok is such a big deal I have to imagine that the Chinese government too ultimately would want to have more and more of its citizens off of off of iPhones right and onto um Huawei and also if I could add on top of that the future of autonomous the idea of here in the states the idea of having Chinese made autonomously driven cars going around recording live videos all over the country is probably really frightening to most Americans the Chinese government must feel similarly about American um autonomous vehicles doing the same in China so sort of this decoupling of techn big Tech Powers what does that mean for apple and Tesla long term so Apple's the second biggest employer in all of China at when you include foxcon at in ter Peak iPhone production in Beijing they love on the trophy case having app Apple Tesla and musk and cook they're 10% politicians 90% CEOs Apple has always been able to navigate the political landscape geopolitical you know basically as well as any other Tech player out there that's going to continue to be a tight rope but that's why like Apple's going to announce an AI partner in China it's either bu to 10 cent or bu Dan so they're going to play ball I think the overall environment right now that's why Cooks in China every few months just like musk does that the fact that they have to then rely more and more on working with local Chinese Partners when it comes to software does that impair in any way apple and or Tesla's profitability in that market I mean I don't think it it definitely impairs some profitability but I think for them that's table Stakes cuz right now it's like you have 100 million iPhones in China that haven't upgrade in four years and also the one thing I'd ALS say is like they've gained 300 bips of market share in China in the last two years so despite all the doomsday world's ending they've gained 200 bips in market share and also Huawei phones the latest Huawei phone would be the equivalent of a iPhone 13
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