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비트코인은 디플레이션·인플레이션 모두에 대비하는 안전자산이며 ETF 승인 기대와 함께 장기 성장이 불가피하다고 주장한다. 비트코인: 2023년 3월~4월 지역은행 위기 때 약 19,000달러에서 30,000달러로 급등한 것이 안전자산 역할의 증거이며, 상대방 리스크가 없어 인기가 계속 커질 것이라고 본다. 블랙록·피델리티의 비트코인 ETF 신청도 긍정적 촉매로 언급했다. 미국 증시: S&P500은 6월에 상승했으며 상승은 M7(매그니피센트 세븐) 중심이었으나, 우드는 소형·중형주 등 다른 영역도 수혜를 볼 것이며 액티브 운용의 가치를 강조했다. AI 훈련 비용이 연 70% 하락하고 있어 AI 대중화가 확산될 것으로 본다. 다만 챗GPT가 구글 검색 모델에 리스크이며 M7 내에도 교란 요인이 있다고 경고했다. 금리·경기: 미국 10년물 금리는 3월 고점 약 4.8%, 현재 4.05% 수준이며 낮아진 고점이 나타나 금리 추가 상승은 제한적일 것으로 본다. 인플레이션이 둔화되고 있고 디플레이션 가능성이 있으며 경기 약세로 장기금리 상승은 놀랄 일이라고 주장했다. 수익곡선은 여전히 역전 상태이며 상업용 부동산이나 사모시장 등에서 새로운 위기 신호가 나올 수 있다고 봤다. 혁신 분야: 다운로드 가능한 혁신 플랫폼(멀티오믹스 시퀀싱, 로보틱스, 에너지 저장, AI, 블록체인)에 주목하며, 향후 5~10년간 진정한 파괴적 혁신 분야로 자금이 이동할 것이라고 전망했다. 전기차로의 전환도 업계 예상보다 빠르다고 언급했다. 출연자 전망 요약: 비트코인 장기 상승 확신, 미국 증시는 M7 외 영역으로 확산, 장기금리 상승 제한, 혁신 기업 중심 장기 투자 권고.
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uh Bitcoin uh sort of the Harbinger for for uh crypto up 10 good month and of course there is the speculation about uh a potential approval of a Bitcoin ETF uh that got people excited um so but the other thing we'd like to reiterate is we saw Bitcoin take off from nineteen thousand to thirty thousand when the Regional Bank crisis uh was uh in full uh force in March April and that told us the Bitcoin is a flight to safety currency it's a hedge against inflation it's a hedge against deflation deflation presents County counterparty Risk uh counterparty risks that do not exist in the world of Bitcoin regardless of whether you believe the economy is headed toward inflation deflation a boom or a recession kathywood believes that adoption of and price growth for Bitcoin are inevitable Kathy discussed the favorable developments around Bitcoin and the reasons why no matter how you split the pie Bitcoin is primed to grow in the latest update that was published today Kathy reminded viewers that the true driver of this year's Bitcoin boom was a regional banking crisis while pointing to positive triggers like applications by Financial behemoths BlackRock and Fidelity for a Bitcoin ETF as an investors go to safety asset or insurance policy as you may call it Kathy was quick to point out that Bitcoin has no counterparty risk and will only continue to gain popularity keep watching until the very end of the film when Kathy Wood discusses her economic Outlook the reasons she thinks a recession is likely the developments in artificial intelligence and how those developments will probably affect the economy here is Kathy Woods Outlook s p was up nicely in June and so a lot of that as we've seen has been focused on the mega Tech category what people are calling the Magnificent Seven now and um and they some of them will will be prime beneficiaries of this excitement about and and we believe there's the the excitement is real and Justified about artificial intelligence but um we think that there are other areas of the market besides the Magnificent Seven that will also benefit and I think our strategies are some of our strategies um we're a testimony to that in in the first half of the year you know interestingly um in our broadest strategy we have a 25 percent in health care and an overweighting relative to the the broad-based indices like the qqqs or the NASDAQ 100 as as they are called um so we're much more heavily weighted to small and mid cap and to be able to have outperformed uh the NASDAQ 100 in any of our strategies um is uh is testimony we think to the return of active management there are investors out there who do not religiously depend on the broad-based indices but are doing their homework and are saying and asking the question who is really going to benefit from this massive shift towards artificial intelligence which is gaining so much momentum because AI training costs are dropping 70 percent per year and they're coming up with uh good answers we would say this is what we do all the time and it's it's nice to have the company again if I might say long-term interest rates they moved up from 364 today 405 interesting we're getting a good test here uh in March the 10-year treasury bond yield peaked around 4.4.8 to 410 today it's 405.
uh in October before that it it had a Peak at 4.3 so lower highs we were having a little bit of a test here and uh we'd be surprised to see long rates continue to to move out because of the weakness that we see evolving in the economy and because inflation's coming down and because it could be negative which I think would shock a lot of people I was around uh did a road show in Europe last last week and I asked the question how many of you here are are hearing forecasters talk about D inflation nobody maybe one hand went up and I said I think you heard us talking about that so no one's talking about it and our confidence is increasing that it will happen that it won't be all bad Innovation is deflationary I just told you AI training costs are dropping 70 per year that's that's going to seep into many many other costs and cause unit growth to accelerate the Bloomberg commodity price in index it moved up three percent in the month of June but is still in a downtrend should have mentioned the yield curve is still inverted it got more inverted uh last month it got to almost 110 basis points which is the inversion it reached right before the Regional Bank crisis it's come off that a bit here but we wouldn't be surprised to see if it signaling you know more crises whether they in the commercial real estate market or in the private Equity Market in a way that we don't understand right now Bitcoin uh sort of the carbinger for for crypto up 10 good month and of course there is the speculation about uh a potential approval of a Bitcoin ETF uh that got people excited um so but the other thing we'd like to reiterate is we saw Bitcoin take off from nineteen thousand to thirty thousand when the Regional Bank crisis uh was in full uh force in March April and that told us the Bitcoin is a flight to safety currency it's a hedge against inflation it's a hedge against deflation deflation presents counter counterparty risk uh counterparty risks that do not exist in the world of Bitcoin and we think Innovation broadly is going to become a flight to safety category we think most investors are very very short Innovation they may think they have it covered with a magnificent seven as they're being called now but we do not think they do in fact we think there's going to be some disruption to The Magnificent Seven and we can get into that in another time and we've mentioned a chat GPT as a real risk to search and Google's entire model and there are other risks in the what used to be called fangs or Now The Magnificent Seven some of which is even competition for the AI chip world we think that Autos have been a great case in point here this shift towards electric is happening so much more quickly than I think the Auto industry first expected and autoanalysts expected that um that many many investors are on guard now thinking okay Innovation I'm going to take it more seriously we think that AI is going to Turbo Charge the speed at which uh these shifts take place and so let's just talk about AI a bit um we think there's going to be a lot of commoditization coming out of AI as you listened to uh Frank Downing and and will Summerlin on our last in the know Foundation models could be commoditized and commoditization is great for companies who harness the AI that is being commoditized to increase their productivity increase their efficiency and lower their unit labor costs so so that's great that could be a boon to the entire economy but the companies who will really benefit disproportionately are going to be those with Visionary leaders uh um broad-based distribution and after those two most importantly proprietary data that no one else has and so that's what we spend our time focused on as we are thinking about AI um we think this move into the megatex uh around AI has been more knee-jerk and uh and it will sort itself out as more and more people do uh the research uh so with that I'll close by saying you know Innovation solves problems we've said that since the beginning of covid That's when I started uh doing uh these uh in the know videos and I believe with the margin pressures that uh that corporations are going to face they're going to have even more problems uh moving forward so Innovation AI they're certainly going to make use of it Innovation as we saw with Bitcoin around Regional uh Bank crisis is a flight to safety and one of the flights to safety that investors must consider is the traditional World Order being disrupted magnificently by the five major Innovation platforms around which we have centered our research multi-ohmic sequencing robotics energy storage artificial intelligence and blockchain technology and the convergence between and among those Technologies is going to cause super exponential growth for some but creative Destruction for others and so we believe in the next five to ten years that investors who are short true Innovation uh truly disruptive innovation are going to start moving more and more into that space allocating Capital to its highest and best use so that's Kathy Woods opinion of Bitcoin and the indisputable momentum this digital currency has amassed regardless of the state of the economy whether we're talking about inflation or deflation economic growth or slump bitcoin's Rising usage and potential for Price growth cannot be ignored Kathy made a point of highlighting bitcoin's special attractiveness and the lack of counterparty risk since she is convinced that it will continue to draw investors as a safe haven asset or insurance policy I sincerely hope that today's video was helpful to you in some way I will see you all in the next one thank you for watching foreign
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