저자: AirplaneJane · 외국인
요약 보기
차트 기반 주간 워치리스트 영상으로, 결론적으로 SPY·나스닥은 단기 상승 저항선 돌파 여부를 지켜보는 흐름이며 개별 종목은 롱·숏 후보를 나열한다. 지수 흐름: SPY는 6일간 횡보 박스 상단을 돌파해 311 부근에서 318~319 저항을 노리는 시나리오를 제시. 나스닥은 추세선에 막혀 있고 거래량 동반 돌파 여부를 확인하자고 함. 러셀2000: 4차례 테스트한 고점 돌파 여부가 관건, 돌파 시 상방 가능성을 언급. 롱 후보: AAP(미상 가격대 166.75 갭 메우기 또는 161.16 이탈 시나리오, 공매도 비중 55%), AMAT(160~150 구간 돌파 시 상승 가능성 언급), Lucan(26.13 지지, 27.15~27.20 저항), CBS(3910 또는 3907 돌파 시 중기 상승, 단기 3880 저항·3850 지지), VIAV(23 지지·23.22 저항 단기 매매 관점). 숏 후보: NVDA(206.43 이탈 후 재차 하락, 265 부근을 저항으로 제시), CAE(2684 지지·2745 저항, 2593까지 조정 가능성), CNP(25.20 이탈 또는 25.53 돌파 시 방향 결정), ARVN(3003 지지·3066 저항, 29 부근 눌림 가능성), HUGE(36~37 부근 조정 가능성 언급). 중기 스윙 롱: EBIX(3278 부근 지지 후 3678 돌파 시 3840~4100, 이후 41 방향 제시). 리스크: 영상 전반에 거래 리스크·수익 비보장 고지, 과거 성과가 미래를 보장하지 않는다는 면책 언급. 사용 지표는 거래량·지지저항·이동평균 중심이며 RSI는 진입 근거로 쓰지 않는다고 밝힘. 출연자 전망: 개별 종목 방향성을 다수 언급하나 확정 수익을 주장하지 않으며, 시장이 양방향으로 갈 수 있다는 중립적 태도를 보임. 구독자 대상 라이브 Q&A 및 투표 요청도 포함.
다듬은 글
hello everyone and welcome to the third week of November. This month is flying by and it has been rocking. I want to know what you guys think of the additional videos I've been putting out. I really wanted more interaction instead of me just speaking technically about charts and the weekly watch list. I really feel like I help give back to the community more that way, and I want your feedback as well.
Speaking about community, let me shrink this really quickly. I was nominated for an award locally, and if you guys could please vote for me, that would be awesome. I'd love the support. Just go to the page, which I'll put down below too: it's business community 360 CA. Scroll down to the nominees. If you're on a phone, just keep scrolling down and you'll see this come up. Click on financial services, then vote for me right there. It's super easy. Part of the criteria for winning is engagement with society and giving back to your followers, so everything I do is really to help you guys. I'd love it if you could give me that back, just two seconds of your time. And if you like my content, please like and subscribe and turn on notifications, because that's how you'll get the new videos.
Let's get into it. As always, you guys know I had my Series 7 back in 2000 and was working with Smith Barney. However, I am no longer current as a broker, but I did go through all the studies. Please remember, number one, trading involves all sorts of varying degrees of risk no matter what security or instrument you're trading, and no returns are guaranteed. If you try a new strategy, it's best to paper trade that strategy until you have the winning version down. Also, any past performance is not indicative of future performance. So, a little disclaimer.
Let's look at the indexes. They always start with SPY. We're rocking up, following the averages, right on up the hill. It looks like we might hit this resistance line at 318. That's a pretty big move coming up, right back here at 303, and now we're all the way up at 311. We had consolidation over the week. It could even extend out to here: one, two, three, four, five, six days of consolidation in this little box, and now we're above it. That's pretty telling. Volume wasn't really higher or lower, but we did have higher volume with the breakout. So I'm looking for it to potentially move up to 318–319 before we start to see a pullback.
Let's look at Nasdaq. We're butting up against this trendline. This is now the fourth time we've had a bit higher than normal volume, and we closed at the top. I'm curious whether we continue up or whether this higher volume turns into a potential sell-off. We'll see what the market has for us, but on the bigger picture we're sitting on a trendline. Let's check the weekly too. On the weekly we're above this trendline. I drew it on the daily, I believe. I should note on my trendlines which timeframe I drew them on. Looking at the daily, I drew it from the high of one candle to the low of another. Disregard the one down here, because it's not even going to hold. Interesting, though, it keeps changing. Okay, now that we're breaking out, let's look at this one: right here, and we tested it, and consolidated again this past week. Volume is increasing and price is increasing. That's what you want to see when a stock is going up, because you want demand increasing along with price to justify the move. When price rises on decreasing volume, that's going against supply and demand, and there's some manipulation driving the price.
Now the Russell. We've come to an area we've tested once, twice, three times, four times, and we haven't broken above the high back on May 19th. We had a downward trend, a bit of a descending triangle, with a breakout, but volume wasn't really higher than normal. RSI isn't in the overbought area. I don't use that as a signal to get in or out, I'm just looking for reasons not to enter a trade. On this one, we still have selling volume every time it comes up to these highs, with selling wicks. I'm looking to see if we can form a nice strong buying wick right here. Buyers drove it up, but I'd really think about a breakout above this wick around 165–166, because if we break above that, we have potential upside. That's the first on my potential long list. I always say potential longs or potential shorts, because the market can really go either way, but I'll give you the levels to watch.
At the end of the day, I'd look at 162–172. There was a big gap on earnings, so we could see a potential gap fill up to the 166–175 area, or a breakdown below 161–162. AAP has 71 million in the float and 55% short volume on Friday. Looking back over the year, we're hitting the 21 EMA. The 4 hasn't crossed the 8 yet, but we did bounce off these moving averages, so keep that one on your watchlist.
Next potential long is AMAT. AMAT also had earnings, and you can see a nice gap up. On the 15-minute chart, Friday, end of day, we had a massive run-up and it closed up. It had a nice spike at 10:45, pulled back, and found support right around 180. I'd look for the 160–150 area to be broken to the upside. AMAT has 920 million in the float, so you have to think of that as a long freight train. With that much volume behind it moving pretty quickly, it takes longer and is harder to stop the momentum. 33% short volume on Friday.
Next potential long is Lucan. Lucan has been compared to Starbucks, but in China. It had earnings on the 13th, and then on the 15th it ran up from 22 to 27, a nice $5 move, roughly 20% of the stock. Support is around 26.13 and resistance to the upside around 27.15–27.20. Lucan is a lower float, not really low, but it has 30.68 million in the float and 43% short volume on Friday.
Next potential longs are in entertainment and broadcasting. CBS Corporation, CBS. This is the 15-minute chart; I forgot to show you where we are, and this is the yearly chart. We're testing the 52-week highs, which is very important. This could be a big breakout, and we had massive volume on Friday. CBS has had a downward trend, and we're butting up against the 50-day simple moving average. We've had increasing volume after earnings. For a longer-term swing, I'd look for a breakout above 39.10, or above 39.07, the daily 50 SMA. For an intraday trade, I'd look for 38.80 resistance to break and 38.50 support to hold. CBS had 60% short volume on Friday, which is pretty interesting. If we start to see a squeeze building in early pre-market before we open, we might get more of a run-up. It has 327 million in the float.
The next potential long is ViacomCBS, VIAV. If you look at the Viacom chart, it's very similar to CBS. It came up almost to the 50 and nearly hit it again on Friday, and it just had earnings. Looking at these two charts, they seem to be trading symbiotically. If one moves, the other potentially moves too, in the same entertainment and broadcasting sector. Viacom has 352 million in the float and was 72% short volume on Friday. I always try to put myself in the heads of other traders. Both had higher than normal short volume, so I think those traders see that 50 SMA as resistance and are setting their stops there. If it breaks above that, it could be a big move for both stocks. For buy calls, support is 23, and resistance is 23.22.
Now for potential shorts for the week. Nvidia had earnings and then broke down. I'd look for support at 204, if it breaks, 204.40, and resistance around 204.46. Looking back at the yearly chart, let me remove some drawings I put on by mistake. The cool thing about TradingView is you can click undo and put back whatever you did by accident. Nvidia touched this level on Thursday too. Someone asked me a question live, which I'll be doing again this Wednesday, so check it out at 1:30 on Wednesday. I'll answer other traders' questions live on YouTube.
Here we have a consolidation box: nine days of consolidation inside this box, with volume neither very large nor very small, except right before earnings. Now the 4 has crossed over the 8, and we broke below the support level of 206.43. As I said, a clean break below 206.43 would be a pretty good short. Look what happened: we broke below 206.43 in the first half hour of the day, then it came down, tested that level as resistance, and sold off again. If you were thinking about going short, I'd use the 206.50 area as resistance, because it acted as fairly strong support in the past, so it will probably flip to resistance. That's it for Nvidia for me.
CAE is a local one here in Canada. They do simulator training for pilots. It had a massive run-up, but it's now potentially testing that gap fill back down. Watch 27.45 to the upside and 26.84 support. It has 265 million in the float. We've tested this level once, twice, three, four, five times, but it hasn't broken above. That's why I have an area to watch for a potential move down, maybe back to 25.93, before a bigger run-up. It would probably be more of a move down to the averages and then potentially back up. It looks like it can't break this 27.50 level.
The next potential short is CNP, CenterPoint Energy. It cut earnings and a massive sell-off came down, and it might have a potential move up. I'd look for support at 25.20 to break, or resistance at 25.53 to the upside. It had a consolidation day right here, so this could have a bigger move coming, because it was fairly consolidated throughout Friday with no big range. Anytime I see a consolidation day like this, I think a move is coming in one direction or the other. They're holding it there to set up a position, and when I say "they," I mean the larger traders, the institutional traders and hedge funds, saying hold it in this range because they want their position set before it makes a major move.
Next potential short is ARVN, and CNP has 300 million in the float. ARVN is a pharmaceutical, and I think it has the potential to be overextended and have a sell-off, like CAE. Resistance is 30.66 to the upside and support is 30.03, or the 30 range. If you look, it broke out on higher than normal volume, a bit of a climax, but not as much volume as I'd like. It looks overbought to me, and the momentum is coming back down somewhat, so it might pull back to the 29 area before ripping up again. Stops don't always go straight up. They come down, go up, come down, go up. Just like this one went down, came up, then down, came up, then down, you see the same pattern going up, back, up, back. So this might have a pullback coming.
Huge in Q10 is the final one, ARVN. Be cautious, because it's a lower float with 16.2 million, and Huge is 215 million in the float. Look at this: it had a massive run-up in three days, going from 30 to 20 to 41, a $9 move on massive volume. Momentum is starting to show overbought and decreasing just a little. It's also testing a resistance area for the third time, so there's a potential move back down toward the 36–37 area. It looks a bit overbought to me, so I'm watching for a potential pullback this week. That's a potential short, but not a longer-term swing in my opinion.
Then I have one longer-term potential swing, and that's EBIX this week. Let's remove the other drawings. EBIX came down, and it seems we've got higher than normal volume after earnings. It came down to the 32 area, 30 to 25, with higher than normal volume. I'm looking for it to break above 36.78, which would be a nice 2.25 move from where it closed Friday. If it breaks above there, it has a nice gap fill up to 38–40, and potentially up to 41, with the averages along the way as roadblocks. This might have a potential move. You can see it came down and tested that low and broke below it, but they took it right back up. We'll see. The higher than normal volume caught my eye, and it's looking a bit oversold too. But I won't use that as the only indicator to get in. I'd watch the price action as well.
All right guys, if you like my content, please like and subscribe. If you have ideas for other trading videos you'd like to see, shoot them over. If you have questions you'd like me to answer in my live Q&A on Wednesday at 1:30, put them in the comments below or email me at Jane at CJ trade calm. Thanks so much, and have a great weekend.
댓글 0