저자: 짐크레이머 · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 2020년 1월 이란과의 군사 긴장 고조를 가정한 '위험한 세상' 포트폴리오를 제시하며, 전쟁 가능성이 크다고 보고 현금·금·유틸리티·석유·방산·사이버보안 비중을 늘리라고 주장함. 현금: 전쟁 가능성이 높다고 판단하면 나이와 무관하게 자산의 절반을 현금으로 보유하라고 권고. 전쟁 시 저가 매수 기회를 잡기 위한 필수 요소라고 설명. 국채: 3년물 국채 수익률이 1.6% 미만으로 낮아 기회비용이 크다고 언급. 장기 전쟁이면 3년 만기가 적합하다고 봄. 머니마켓펀드도 대안으로 소개. 금: 금 가격이 전면전 시 1,560달러대에서 2,000달러까지 오를 수 있다고 전망. 실물 금 보유를 권하며 극단적으로는 해외 보관도 언급. 금 ETF GLD 선호. 금광주로 배럭 골드(가치주, 현재 고점 대비 2달러 이상 하락)와 애그니코 이글(성장주, 고점 대비 4포인트 하락, 매수 정당화)을 제시. 은은 산업용 수요 때문에 선호하지 않으며 추천하지 않음. 유틸리티: 안정성을 위해 아메리칸 일렉트릭 파워(배당 3%), 콘에디슨(배당 3.4%), 도미니언(배당 4.5%)을 매수 대상으로 제시. 석유: 호르무즈 해협 봉쇄 시 유가 급등 가능성을 언급하나 단기적일 것으로 봄. 미국 생산 확대로 선물 가격이 현재 현물가 63달러보다 낮은 52달러 수준으로 하락해 있다고 설명. 슐럼버거(SLB, 배당 약 5%), 파이어니어 내추럴(Permian 분지 수혜), BP(배당 6.2%), 코노코필립스(최근 배당 38% 인상)를 언급하며 매수 가능하다고 함. 방산/사이버보안: 방산주 중 L3해리스를 가장 선호하며 211달러 수준에서 고점 대비 약 6달러 하락해 매수 가치가 있다고 봄. 레이시온은 합병 및 분할 이슈와 주가 과열로 추천하지 않음. 록히드마틴, 노스롭그루먼, 제너럴다이내믹스도 주가가 많이 올라 비추천. 사이버보안은 크라우드스트라이크를 언급하나 당일 상승 중이므로 조정 시 매수 고려. 추가 문답: 은은 비추천, 금 ETF GLD와 일부 금광주는 선호. 에로젯 로켓다인은 과소평가된 우량 기업으로 긍정적 평가. 뉴코(Nucor)는 3% 배당의 안정적 철강주로 보유 유지 권고. 전반적으로 이 포트폴리오는 투기가 아닌 수익을 낼 수 있는 핵심 자산 배분이라고 강조. 리스크: 단기적으로 시장이 타격을 받을 수 있으며 전쟁 현실화 시 충격을 대비해야 한다고 언급.
다듬은 글
Everywhere I went this weekend, people kept asking me to make a military briefcase. How are they preparing for what they see as a future war with Iran? For these people, this long-running conflict has reached the point of no return. They think there is something to worry about, something big. I don't know if they're right, but war is clearly on the table.
So, as a precaution, let me present to you my “world is a dangerous place” portfolio, which depicts an imminent conflict, including an Iranian attack on the United States, followed by some kind of retaliation. Perhaps Iran will close the Strait of Hormuz. Through which 21 million barrels of oil flow per day .
Maybe they will launch a cyberattack. Maybe they will use conventional weapons. This portfolio will work in any of these scenarios. First, if you really believe we are heading for war, you need money, lots of money. Now, and you'll probably make next to nothing on your money. You...That's not the point .
When I look at the value of Treasury bonds, I like to look at them for 3 years. If you expect the war to be more protracted, then 3 years will suit you. Of course, the opportunity cost is terrible. Uh, 3-year Treasury bonds are only yielding less than 1.6% interest rates right now, when I...you know, I have to tell you, yeah, high-quality common stocks compared to interest rates right now, I like quality.
Quality promotions. But that does n't mean cash is king in such situations. I mean, wars tend to create buying opportunities, and cash allows you to take advantage of them. So, this is the most important component of any portfolio in the world, it's a dangerous category . Now, for those of you who want to avoid putting your cash in individual Treasury bonds, I see money market funds getting slightly better returns.
If you believe that a real war with Iran is inevitable, I recommend investing half of your capital in cash. Half, regardless of your age group. Because this is a true wartime asset allocation . With such a huge cash position, you will be ready for anything. The second important part of the military portfolio is gold.
I prefer owning bars or gold lanterns. This is an ETF that tracks the price of a precious metal . But if you're really serious about war fears, bullion is safer than anything traded on an exchange. And if you're really extremely paranoid, you know what you need to do? You need to keep them outside the United States.
Open a safety deposit box in another country and put them there. Extremism, I know, but the world is a dangerous place. I see the price of gold rising from the 1560s to $2,000 in the event of an all-out war. But if owning gold directly seems too conservative to you, I have a couple of stock-based alternatives: a value bet and a growth bet.
In terms of value, there is Barrick Gold, which is now down more than two dollars from its highs. Barrick acquired the old Rand Gold , and the combined company is now run by Mark Bristow, former CEO of Rand Gold. I like Barrick because it has huge assets. But the merged company was just beginning to take shape.
Excellent cash flow, recently increased dividends. They aim to provide high returns for their shareholders, which is a bit different from the old days. Mark Bristow is one of the best in the business, and he runs a very tight schedule. Under his leadership, Barrick got rid of some "sacred cow" mines that were not profitable enough.
And thanks to these steps, the company now has a stunningly clean balance sheet. Okay, maybe you want more of a growing gold mining business? Well, the best of them is Agnico Eagle. It is managed by Sean Boyd. Like Bristow, he swears by this new golden model, making money for shareholders and returning dividends to them.
Unlike Barrick, Agnico Eagle operates in a relatively safe region, such as Canada, Finland, and northern Mexico. The company was able to make a fortune thanks to lower gold prices. I can't wait to see how much they earn now that they're all grown up. Oh, and the stock is now four points below its high, so I think it's perfectly legitimate to buy Agnico Eagle right here .
The third component of the military portfolio is public utilities. If you need security, choose American Electric Power, the largest electricity transmission company in America, with a yield of 3%. Con Edison shares are light assets. They do not generate electricity, but simply transmit it to customers, with a yield of 3.4%.
I also agree to buy Dominion, with a yield of 4.5%. About a year ago, these guys acquired Scana, a southern utility company with a lot of synergies. That's why the yield is so high. I regularly communicate with the CEOs of these three utility companies. I like what I hear. Fourth, if Iran, let's say, closes the Strait of Hormuz, it will lead to a large increase in oil prices.
Although it may be short-lived, because American manufacturers, well, they will eventually make up the difference, trust me . It is the power of the US that is the reason why oil futures for the coming years have fallen, so to speak, to about $52 , which is below the current spot price of $63. What is worth having in the oil industry?
Well, okay , let's get started. First, there is the best oil and gas service company, and that is Schlumberger, SLB. They should have a lot of business with higher priced crude oil because that should stimulate a lot of new drilling in places that have n't replenished their fields in centuries. These are typical investments for the country.
The stock has a yield of almost 5% . The CEO is obligated to pay dividends. Secondly, for a growing oil company, how about Pioneer Natural, run by the great Scott Sheffield, who was a huge developer of the Permian Basin in Texas. A small increase in crude oil prices makes Permian Basin oil incredibly profitable.
Plus a potential takeover target for Pioneer. 31 income, okay, this is BP. Solid dividends, 6.2% yield. Value, Conoco, which reported a much better- than-expected quarter and recently increased its dividend by 38%. You can bless yourself by buying any or all of the stocks there. I...only if, of course, you think the world is a dangerous place.
The fifth component of a good military portfolio is, obviously, you need a defense contractor. Now, personally I like the L3 Harris. It's a combination of the old L3 and Harris, driven by the wonderful Bill Brown. This company has an integrated mission systems development business that is fully focused on intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance.
It also has a space and airborne division where they deal with cybersecurity, avionics, electronic warfare, high-precision attack sensors, drones, and a lot of aviation training. In short , L3 Harris produces exactly what our military needs to wage war in the Middle East. This is worth buying, guys.
That. For 20. For 211 dollars, you know what? The stock is only down about six dollars from its high, but all these defense contractors have made a lot of money. Just not this one. If you think we are heading for war, then it is definitely worth buying. And from a portfolio perspective, this is probably the one I would buy, regardless of whether it would be a dangerous place.
However, I cannot recommend Raytheon in good conscience. It merges with United Technologies, which then splits into three corporations. After the acquisition, Raytheon will cease to be a purely defensive play. Also , I think his stock has gone up too much. The same goes for Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, and General Dynamics.
Remember that Raytheon is going to separate from the defense part of United Technologies, but it will take a long time. Finally, let's not forget about cybersecurity. For that, we have CrowdStrike, which just appeared on the show last week and told us it knows how to stop attacks from Iran. Unfortunately, the stock is up today, so it might be worth waiting for a pullback.
God, they were just strong. The bottom line is that if we do get the firestorm that so many people I've talked to seem to be expecting, you have to be prepared for the market to take a hit at least in the short term. My briefcase is a dangerous place for the world, even though it's supposed to make you money.
So if you believe a real war with Iran is inevitable, you need money, you need gold, utilities, oil, defense, and cybersecurity. And I'm sure that even in times of turmoil related to war, this briefcase will suit you. Let's go to R D in Kentucky. R D. Hello everyone, little one . Hey, Cramer, I view silver as a precious metal.
I always liked it. I wonder how much of it I should invest in my portfolio? Well, I'm not a fan of silver because there are industrial uses. I am a fan of gold. I've been a fan of gold since the show started. I like GLD. I like a few gold company stocks. I cannot in good conscience recommend silver .
It's never been something I'm passionate about. Let 's go to Robert's in Oregon. Robert? Yes. Good afternoon. Good afternoon, Robert. Perfectly. My question today is this: My brother and sister and I inherited Aerojet Rocketdyne stock this year when our parents passed away, and I want to maybe buy some more of those.
Hmm, it's been steadily growing for the past 3 years, and now, with the formation of, uh, the new Space Force, the exploration aspects of NASA, and our current political climate, I'm curious what you think of these stocks. I'll tell you, Robert, I'm genuinely surprised they didn't take off further. It's a really good company, as you mentioned.
She does not have sufficient support from analysts who write about her. I think getting ahead of this is a very good idea. You have a winner. Let's please turn to John from New Jersey. John. Well done, uh, Jim. It would be remiss of me not to offer my condolences to the Eagles, but if it makes you any better, I'm a Jets fan.
Well, I just hope Carson Wentz feels better. That's all I care about. What happened? Yes, definitely. He's a cool guy. Okay , my stock is Nucor. Hmm, I own a little bit, you know, I own what I can. I have about $2,500 there . I bought in July at 56 and then again in August at 50. I want to know your feelings about the future.
We will have earnings reports. I know the macroeconomic picture is affecting this , like a trade war, maybe, you know, elections, etc. I want to know your feelings about Nucor. Is this your own portfolio, uh, or an exchange, or what is it? This is definitely not an exchange. This is my own portfolio.
I don't believe in the " buy and hold" principle. I believe in the principle of "buy and do your homework." If you do your homework on Nucor, you will see that they have never had a hard time like all the other steel producers. But that's exactly why it's a blue chip among industrial steel producers.
3% yield, safe yield. That. Keep buying . Keep owning. If you think you need a defensive action plan, you should be prepared for the market to take a hit in the short term. But these are your core asset elements, okay? And again , I'm saying that this portfolio can actually make you money. We're not...We're not...
We're not...We're not speculators. But it can make you money. Much more attention is being paid to Mad Money. Axon has risen more than 180% over the past few years, but could its drop today be a red flag or a buying opportunity? I'll have to see you. Then, a retail call that might surprise you. I'll break it down and tell you what it means for your wallet.
And oil calls are rapidly rising in today's edition of lightning talk. Kramer #MadTweets. ? Visit madmoney.cnbc.com.
Comments 0