Mohamed El-Erian on his market outlook and bitcoin

요약 보기

결론: 유동성 장세가 계속되며 단기 상승 경로가 유효하지만, 버블 영역이라 리스크는 커지고 있다. 주식 시장: 역대 최대 주간 자금 유입이 있었고 찰스 슈왑 계좌 개설도 급증해 유동성이 더 들어올 것으로 본다. 가격은 높지만 경로상 상승 추세는 유지된다는 진단이다. 테슬라·비트코인: 두 자산은 시장의 인기주로, 단순 고점 신호인지 구조적 전환인지에 대해 비트코인은 결제 수단으로서의 수용 확대가 특수한 요인이라고 설명했다. 다만 과열 지표(스팩 활동, 신규 계좌 개설 등)가 많아 거품 영역에 있다고 봤다. 합리적 버블 개념으로 유동성이 계속 흐르는 한 유지될 수 있다고 주장했다. 재정·유동성: 옐런 재무장관이 G7에서 대규모 재정 확대를 주장했고, IMF SDR 발행을 통한 유동성 확대도 논의됐다. 미국이 다른 나라보다 훨씬 앞서 유동성을 주입할 것이며, 그 규모는 매우 크다. 언제 과도한 유동성이 문제가 되는지가 핵심 질문이라고 언급했다. 달러·금: 달러가 추가로 크게 약세를 보일 것으로 보지 않는다. 백신 접종 속도, 경제 역동성, 해외 직접투자 등이 달러를 지지한다는 논리다. 금은 매력이 비트코인으로 일부 이동했으며, 금이 유일한 방어 수단으로 여겨지지 않게 됐다고 설명했다. 비트코인 수요 성격: 긍정적 이유(글로벌 통화·결제 수단 기대)와 부정적 이유(각종 위험으로부터의 자기 보호)가 섞여 유입되고 있다고 평가했다.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. so my first question is about positioning and inflows when you when you look at all the data there is it suggesting things uh are going to rise further from here or or are we getting a little bit stretched thanks for having me wilfred it's suggesting both so the path of least resistance remains up we've just had the highest weekly inflow into the equity market ever so people are putting it to work charles schwab's reported that there's been a massive increase in account opening and there's more liquidity on the way having said that we are at rather elevated prices but this is all about liquidity you've heard me say this over and over again it is technical the path of least resistance is still up over time when you see something like tesla which has been a darling of course of the market buying bitcoin uh which has also been a darling of the market do you start to think this is this is marking the top or uh is it a bigger transition that's bullish for both both assets so that one is has a specific element to it which is the broader acceptance of bitcoins and it's not just tesla that is saying you can use it as a form of payments it's others too but you could have had in that sentence so many other things you would have had specs look at the amount of stack activity we have had everybody and the brother and sister are opening specs you could have all sorts of things that indicate that we are frothy but remember the notion of a rational bubble yes we are in bubble territory but it's rational because of all this liquidity and and the liquidity keeps flowing mohammed the latest is secretary janet yellen in her first call with g7 finance ministers and treasury secretaries today brought the go big message there that now is the time to do something big on the economy and yes they were talking about some technicals of expanding the imf fire power through sdrs but what is the potential for more stimulus not just from the united states at this time so she took the message go big to apply both to national budgets where she's going to have less success but also to apply to the imf sdr issues which is basically an issuance of currency that if it happens countries will wake up and find that the deposit account has gone up at the imf and they can spend it so i think she will succeed on the global liquidity element because most other countries will go along um but she's not going to be able to move other countries very much on their own budgets the us is going to be way ahead and do if you just do the numbers it is incredible how much liquidity is likely to be injected in this economy the big question is will it create an accident at what point does a lot of liquidity become too much liquidity with that in mind mohammed are you a believer that the dollar is due to weaken further despite already having been soft of late uh and why isn't gold performing better with all of this liquidity out there so first i'm not a believer that the dollar will weaken a lot from here i think we've seen most of the weakening because it is about more than just liquidity it also has to do with vaccine distribution where we dominate europe it has to do with the dynamism of the economy with foreign direct influence so if you add everything up it doesn't look as much as bearish for the dollar um so that's one two gold gold pot of gold part of the attractiveness of gold has gone to bitcoins and i think that explains a lot where bitcoins is as well gold is no longer seen as the only defensive vehicle now bitcoins are starting to attract a lot of people that are in there for what i call negative reasons you have the positive reasons people that believe it's going to be a global currency that believe it's going to be a form of payments and then you have the negative reasons people who just are protecting themselves against all sorts of things