저자: TomLee · 외국인
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결론: 코로나19 우려에도 시장이 이미 일부 반영했을 수 있으나, 주가는 리스크 프리미엄 확대로 약세가 나올 것으로 본다. 시장 반응: 마카오 카지노 2주 폐쇄 등으로 카지노 운영사(윈 리조트, 라스베이거스 샌즈)와 관련 경기 전반에 충격이 예상된다. 월·화요일 랠리는 의외이나 시장이 개인보다 똑똑하다는 관점에서 가격 움직임 자체를 신호로 본다. 에너지 섹터: 유가 급락이 이어지며 밸류 트랩 논리가 아직 유효해 보인다. 중국 GDP 리스크와 테슬라 롱 대비 에너지 ETF 숏이 겹친 영향으로 본다. 다만 연내 반등 가능성은 있다고 본다. ISM 제조업: 수출 지표가 47에서 53으로 급반등했다. 과거 5번의 사례에서 확장 전환 후 EPS 성장이 크게 개선됐다. 컨센서스는 저성장 전제이나 올해 S&P500 EPS 성장 15%, 밸류에이션 확장 시 연간 20% 상승 가능성을 거론한다. 리스크: 코로나 사태가 장기화되면 단기 소비는 타격을 받지만 연간 실적에는 회복이 반영될 수 있다는 입장이다. 하이일드 스프레드 미반등과 VIX 높은 수준은 여전히 공포를 보여준다. 출연자 전망: 주식시장은 신호가 많으나 바닥 확인은 어렵다고 본다. 에너지는 연내 반등, 미국 주식은 연간 강세 가능성을 제시한다.
다듬은 글
officials in the Chinese city of Macau often referred to as the gambling capital of the world ordering that the town be shutting down all of its casinos for two weeks time as the city continues to grapple with the outbreak casino operator operators like Wynn Resorts and Las Vegas Sands now bracing for impact here and really every other piece of the economy to splintered off from that entertainment sector also watching this closely joining us now is fun strat advisors managing partner head of research Tom Lee back with us in studio good to see you again yeah good to see you guys under under all of this that we're watching play out though a lot has been made about what not just the moves right now to shut down Macau but really what the spillover effects here could be as investors continue to watch coronavirus cases spread people staying at home very nervous over there what do you make of all this well I think you know markets prices changed because either the fundamentals will change or the risk premia you know the perception of risk we are in the view that the coronavirus should be affecting risk premia meaning I you know I would expect stocks to be weaker on this it strange to see the rally Monday and Tuesday yeah but you know markets smarter than anyone any individual so to me this is signal and you know maybe the reality is that we've already priced in a corona event so I don't know I think it's actually a lot of signal today in terms of price move so taking a look at the different markets that have been impacted though oil continuing to get pummeled it seems as if the value trap thesis is sort of still intact for a lot of these energy investors if we strip away the coronavirus though and we're taking a look at the energy sector what are your thoughts is this continuing to look like a value trap to you this year as well you know I think energy in a way is kind of caught up in a couple of currents you know one is of course the GDP risk from China and their huge commodity consumer but I would also think if someone's going long Tesla they're shorting you know the energy ETF so I think it's a convenient punching bag for an overweight Tesla thesis so I think those combined effects are contributing to the misery I think energy turns around later this year because it's historically one of the best groups to own if the PM is recovered a 50 and that's what we got yesterday was not Simar covering well you talked about the eye and recovery I know we're running everyone's talking about Tesla so we're gonna dig more into that one in a little bit but while you're talking about the is M numbers that we got you actually pointed out yesterday in a note the information that comes along with that is potentially a buying opportunity here for folks to when we look at the rebound in the is M numbers particularly you were looking at is M exports and what happens when that rebounds above the 50 level which would no longer show a contraction when we're back above 50 and you looked at what happens when we do see that recovery and interestingly you point out in your note that a rebound in that number back into expansion territory or above 50 is traditionally seen as a buying opportunity when you look at what happens with earnings per share growth and noting that in the five instances that that's happened since 99 you've seen a boost of 18 percent in EPS growth but what does that mean if the streets are only really pricing in ten percent EPS growth are you saying that this signals yeah out of the woods that's right I think you know if I had to look at consensus I think people think we're late cycle earnings were flat last year and maybe we'll be lucky to squeeze out high single digit low double-digit earnings growth this year but the Isum export number blast it to 53 from like a forty seven ram it's a massive turn it's really interesting because the five other times it's happened it's been accompanied by a big recovery an earnings as you point out so I think that makes sense I think we've had a big inventory drawdown a lot of growth slowed because the trade war now that it's all turning we could see you know 15% S&P readings growth this year and that would be on top of possibly Pease expanding so maybe we're up 20% this year the big question mark there too though it would be in the short term with the corona virus outbreaks how would that impact because we just heard China potentially saying that they might not be able to meet the purchases they promised the US I know that that doesn't necessarily correlate to manufacturing because of what we know in the inverse relationship between the US and China generally won't be my we'll be buying more of their things but how might that impact things in the short term even though we see this short term rebound in is M what happens if the coronavirus maybe last longer than a lot of people are expecting yeah I mean I'd say the current advice probably like one of these high-amplitude but short-lived effects meaning no we're already seeing the quarantine zand people not leaving it's gonna kill retail but it doesn't kill the full year because all of that stuff comes back so I think the market is willing to look through it got it I think the problem right now is like you know high yield isn't rallying that much and the VIX is still showing a lot of fear so I think that's why to me the equity market it's a lot of signal but it's hard for me to say that maybe the bottom sitting hay investors sac
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