It's unrealistic for investors to say markets are going straight down, says Fundstrat's Tom Lee

요약 보기

결론: 톰 리는 단기 반등 한계는 인정하나 연말까지 펀더멘털 반전 가능성을 근거로 시장 하락 일변도는 비현실적이라고 주장. 주제1 - 기술적 약세 vs 펀더멘털 마크(수석 기술분석가)는 기술적 지표가 나쁘고 하락추세라고 봄, 반등은 짧을 것이라는 의견. 톰 리는 가격은 펀더멘털이 바뀌면 달라질 수 있다고 봄. 주제2 - 인플레이션 선행지표 원자재, 구인건수, 주택가격, 신규 임대료 등 선행지표와 실제 경제지표 간 괴리가 커지고 있다고 언급. 주제3 - 지정학·유가 리스크 인플레이션 급등과 기대 변화의 핵심은 유가이며, 전쟁 또는 석유 공급 관련 해결이 게임체인저가 될 수 있다고 봄. OPEC 대폭 감산에도 유가 상승폭이 작아 상방 기대가 과장됐을 수 있다고 봄. 주제4 - 반등 경로 해석 논쟁 마크 노트는 38.50 근처에서 반등이 제한되고 저점 재시험 경로를 제시하나, 동시에 S&P 4300 경로도 언급한다고 톰 리가 반박. 톰 리는 노트가 여러 경로를 제시한다고 주장. 주제5 - 나뭇가지식 해석: 노무라 스티븐 가이거 비판 전일 대반전은 강세가 아니라 약세로 봐야 한다는 견해(헤지 청산, 풋 청산 후 추가 하락 문 개방)에 대해, 톰 리는 단기 트레이딩 코멘트로 보며 큰 틀의 펀더멘털 긍정 요인이 있다고 반론. 주제6 - 목표가 현실성 논란 진행자는 높은 목표가와 연속된 강세 주장이 신뢰를 떨어뜨린다고 지적. 톰 리는 목표가가 비현실적일 수 있다는 점은 인정하나, 시장이 일직선으로 하락한다는 것도 비현실적이라고 답변. 출연자 전망 요약: 단기 반등은 제한적일 수 있으나 연말까지 펀더멘털 개선 요인에 따라 하락 일변도는 아니라는 입장.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. uh Mark and I talk frequently uh we have a huddle and we spend a lot of time in each other's offices talking about markets uh Mark's view does reflect how poorly technicals are I mean you know price is the Arbiter and the Market's been in a ugly downtrend which is what Mark's speaking to but price can change if fundamentals change and I think in between now and your end as much as investors are glum and pessimistic there are things that present themselves as things that can change how price reacts I mean I think foremost I think there's still a growing gap between what is apparent in terms of inflationary leading indicators whether it's Commodities job openings home price Market rent for new properties and how it shows up in the hard data now granted the FED is not trusting forecasts so they rely on the hard data but that Gap is still growing and the second is there's a lot of geopolitical risks around oil and energy prices and so much of the inflation and The Surge and the change in expectations have hinged on oil which means if we have any resolution on either the war front uh or on oil supply I mean I think it's been kind of interesting that OPEC announced a pretty big production cut and oil has barely increased I think that just tells you that as much as energy is still a wild card and investors are worried about it I don't know if it's as much an upside skew as people think but those two represent pretty big you know potential game changers for how people View Market Direction but I understand but I still have a hard time it's almost like the play caller and the quarterback are not on the same page right um bounces will likely prove short-lived that that's from your Chief technician do you disagree with that uh again Scott it's just it's time frames I wouldn't say I'm disagreeing with Mark but uh but Tom he says he says that he basically says we're going to go back to the lows before a pullback back down to the left yes underway just to be clear that's if you read the complete note that's not true he actually lays out different paths but the path that's being read there is one of the directions so I would just say uh it is actually a lot more balanced than what you're describing oh I'm just quoting bounces will likely prove short-lived and might not exceed 38.50 before a pullback back down to Lowes gets underway I mean it's in the same note that talks about s p potentially a path towards 4 300 as well so again I'm just saying that within that same note there are multiple paths but you're just highlighting one of the paths I want you to react to another uh a comment that I saw from uh Stephen Geiger he's a fixed income Analyst at nomura and he looks at that reversal yesterday to which you suggest it was bullish he says and I quote yesterday was incredibly bearish in my view even though most think bullish that massive reversal took out tons of Hedges puts were closed bears were purged opens the door for a much bigger decline in the immediate term what's your reaction to that Tom uh Scott I mean that's uh that's a trading comment and you know how markets trade in the next day or two or a couple weeks I wouldn't disagree with those points but to me again I think that there are potential fundamental positive Catalyst between now and your end and so I I know that there's price and momentum's negative but it doesn't mean that that's going to necessarily govern What markets do the rest of the year it's the same reason people can overlay charts of today versus 2008 and sort of treat that as Canon and that's the direction markets are going but of course that's not the only overlay one can do so Scott I I'd say there's positioning and then there's technicals but then there's also fundamentals and macros so as much as investors are betting that it's only going to be technical or positioning that matter there are other factors that can drive markets Tom look I I've asked you a bunch of those questions uh regarding you and Mark and I know you you frankly you sound exasperated with me um but there are a lot of our viewers who are exasperated with you um and the fact that you have such a lofty price Target despite what seems to be blaring in front of all of us that there's no way to reach some of those lofty levels because of the significant issues that are in front of us I'll give you the last word um I'm happy I'm happy to do that but how do you square that because when we have you on and you continue to make these bullish cases in the face of short-lived reversals that seem to be nothing more than bear Market bounces it leaves some people questioning whether they should listen to the advice or not uh that's fair Scott I mean the markets endured a lot of damage in the past month uh or you know it's going to be difficult because it there is a Time window here between now and your end but at the same time let's say that uh our targets are unrealistic which it is I also think it's also unrealistic for investors to say that markets go straight down so you know it's been tough it's been a tough year unfortunately you know I kind of wish markets were performing better but we're in a tough situation with inflation and that's been a pretty tough monster to slay yeah understood Tom I appreciate it I appreciate you coming on and having the conversation I always do that's Tom Lee funstrat