저자: TomLee · 외국인
요약 보기
AI 우려가 버블을 막고 있어 조정이 막바지라는 주장. AI 발견(수학 문제 770개 해결 등)과 생산성 향상이 지속되며, AI 투자 자금(30조 달러)은 미국 가계 이자소득(연 약 7조 달러)으로 충당 가능하다고 봄. 금리가 5%대에서 5% 아래로 내려오고 연준 입장이 매파에서 완화로 바뀌는 중이라 역풍이 줄었다고 평가. 반도체·메모리·엔비디아·매그7은 공매도가 쉬워져 매도되는 것이며 바닥권으로 본다. 소프트웨어·암호화폐·경기민감주·금융주에 강세 견해. 중간선거 전후 몇 주는 불확실하지만 이후 시장이 광범위하게 강하게 오를 것으로 전망.
다듬은 글
But the reason I'm going to say AI concerns are preventing a bubble is that we're continuing to see astounding discoveries made by AI. I mean whether it's the Muse and the agents, but maybe two weeks ago OpenAI and discovering 770 math problems, this is not the end or late cycle for AI discovery and even the productivity boost.
So, as long as we're starting to see advances there, every dollar of capital raised for AI is generating returns. I think it's actually really healthy that the debt markets are sort of preventing a runaway uh speculative boom in AI. So, I think it's actually a very healthy correction that way. So you're you're focused more on the derivative impacts I I suppose you could say rather than spending concerns, funding concerns, capital crunch concerns, all the above.
Uh yeah, I mean unfortunately AI does require a lot of dollars. Um, we did a report a few weeks ago showing that if AI is going to spend 30 trillion over the next 25 years, one, there's actually plenty of investment dollars available because interest income from just American households annually is about 7 trillion.
So, you know, a trillion of that can be funded by just the interest income earned by Americans. But the mobile network build was about 25 trillion and roadways are 25 trillion. I think AI is a more important infrastructure build arguably than mobile and it's about the same dollar. So I I don't think there's too much money being thrown at AI today.
Would you buy the selloff yet? Yes, I think we're at the I think we're near the end stages of the selloff because it's become a consensus short uh to be shorting tech and I think yields which was really worrying markets as you know they've backed away. I mean, you've got two things that were headwinds before.
The Fed quite hawkish, now it's flipping potentially doubbish and interest rates, which were touching five, people fearing 6% are now back below 5%. I think the only things you have now is debt markets are kind of closed at the moment. And then, of course, the uncertainty about the war. I mean, would you, if you say yes, I'd buy it, where would you buy it?
Would you, you stay just with these largest AI related stocks in the market? Yeah, I Scott, I think the AI uh and the bottlenecks of the memories and the Nvidas and the Mag 7, they they're being sold because it is easy to short them now. And I think of course people are worried about the credit side, but I think they're bottoming, but I also like the software and I I like the crypto here.
I think kind of the whole broad cyclical trade I'd be pretty bullish on. And as you know, financials haven't been rallying, but rates are coming down. So, I think there's a lot of opportunity. This is what I view as a coiled stren spring because the fundamentals have been holding in. Wow. I mean, if you look at, you know, the the semiconductor index or the DRAM ETF, for example, we show that one.
Um, there's so much destruction within that trade. I I just I wonder what that chart what story that chart is really going to be telling in the weeks, if not months ahead. Uh Scott, I I think it just shows you what a battle AI is today. But keep in mind that in 1997, three years after the launch of the public internet and browsers, uh Cisco, which was the biggest stock at the time, had a massive 50% draw down, partly because Alan Greenspan was saying we had a irrational exuberance and then later kind of hinted at preemptive hikes, not too dissimilar to today.
Cisco went had a 50% correction, went down to five. A year later was 18. I I think the setup is similar. You know, Chat GBT is basically crossing its third anniversary. I think we're so early in this AI trade, but it's understandable for people to be worried. I mean, a lot of people made money and there's a lot of profit taking as well.
What about other areas of the market? Yeah, the market's broadened, but in a, you know, not so great way. Healthcare, staples, utilities. That doesn't exactly exude confidence in the market. No. Yeah. To see uh waste services which is a super defensive group rallying does show the market's nervous. I I'd say the halfful argument is that that's also a breath argument.
Uh but I did talk with Mark Newton. I I it does look like we're seeing, you know, tech basically touching support. So I think we know that the next couple weeks are uncertainty into midterms. I think this is the window where investors can buy things because the market is going generally risk off but I think post midterms the market's going to rally broadly and very strongly.
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