저자: Stylosa · 외국인
요약 보기
OpenAI가 경쟁 열위(B2B에서 Anthropic에 밀리고 소비자 시장은 Google에 밀림)로 IPO를 서두르며, 손익률 -122% 등 재무 악화가 주가에 불리하다고 주장. SpaceX·Anthropic·OpenAI IPO 몰림에 따른 자금 경쟁과 패스트 엔트리 지수편입 이슈도 언급. Google의 AI 끼워팔기는 사용자 수를 부풀린다고 비판. Starbucks·Spotify의 AI 도입은 부정적으로 평가. 특정 상장 종목 가격 방향 예측은 명시되지 않음.
다듬은 글
I think we're getting quite close now to the end of Open AI. It looks like Sam Altman's company is panicking and they are rushing towards an IPO, which is a listing on the public stock market faster than they intended because they are falling behind in every single metric. They are losing the business-to-business enterprise AI arena to Anthropic.
Anthropic is now worth more on paper than Open AI on the private markets and they seem to be losing the consumer AI market to Google. Now again, you guys have probably watched the videos I've been making on this channel. Google likes to shove their AI into everything which inflates their numbers and I'm not actually happy with what Google is doing at all with search and its integration in YouTube.
But the fact remains, Open AI is falling behind in these categories and that's going to affect their future valuation and it will affect their future stock price. They need to get out as soon as possible. And of course, you've got SpaceX, you've got Anthropic and Open AI looking to all IPO this year.
There's only so much money. You can't invest in all of these companies and obviously, when a company IPOs, they think their share value is well, they think they're worth a lot at that moment in time. So as they IPO, they can look to offload shares. They can look to generate revenue for the company that way generate capital, I guess I should say, not revenue specifically.
Also, they are hoping obviously people pile in and buy the shares so the share price goes up so they make even more money. But we're going to have to wait and see because I think this is going to be a disaster. But I've got a lot to cover in this video, guys. But we're going to start with Starbucks and we're going to start with Spotify because what the freak is going on here?
This is Starbucks, right? And they've they've scrapped an AI inventory tool across North America. Now the reason why they've done this, yeah, is because it has been counting products incorrectly. It's been getting product details wrong. But you all know how AI operates. It believes that it is right.
It is hallucinating and it's confidently hallucinating. This to me is one of these examples of these companies reducing headcount in these key roles, key departments, replacing them with AI, thinking the AI is fantastic cuz it works really fast, but the AI is getting things wrong, which are then found out further down the chain after these problems have been introduced at a foundation level, and they keep going, you know, throughout the system, and then eventually it gets to one of the restaurants, and they're like, "Hey, we should have 10 eggnog left, but we've got one.
What has happened here?" And then they've chased it all the way back. This is just That's just a wild example I've made up, by the way. They've chased it all the way back and gone, "Oh, yeah, the AI got that wrong." But we asked the AI to make sure it made no mistakes, but it did. This is going to be the first example of a long list of examples of companies offloading their work to AI, and because the AI is confidently wrong, um they think it's right, and it's not until it actually is wrong, and then they're like, "Oh, we need to sort this out," which ultimately probably will result in hiring back people to fix this problem.
So, we've got a double whammy for Spotify. This is crazy. Um so, the first one, this has been reported by Hollywood Reporter, Spotify introduces AI-generated personal podcasts. Why would anybody want this? Why would you Like, you listen to a podcast for a different point of view. You may listen to a podcast for, you know, a similar view to yourself.
You may listen to a podcast to learn something. Maybe you want to listen to a scientific one, a history podcast, you know. Um I'm addicted to The Rest Is History. I love that podcast. I watch it all the time. You know, I'm I'm not particularly interested in all of that the topics, but I like learning about them, and and it's a different point of view.
Um I don't want Spotify to make me a personalized AI-generated podcast that is telling me what I want to hear. This This This is just This is totally terrible, and it again, it makes me really worried of a world where we're in our own little entertainment bubbles that are generatively produced by AI models, cuz if a company like Spotify thinks it's fine, which by the way, Spotify is terrible because they pay their artists absolutely nothing when it comes to revenue share.
But this is just taking the piss. This is going, we'll make you your own private entertainment, you'll enjoy it, but then you'll never be able to share that with anyone else because well, it's just been made for you. This is inherently absolutely 100% sad. But it's not only that. So, this is Spotify's official website and they say Spotify and Universal Music Group announced landmark licensing agreement for fan-made covers and remixes.
Now, what this is is again the use of AI. Certain songs that are enabled by the license holder can be remixed with AI in Spotify. So, if you've got a favorite song, but you think, "Hey, I want this to be a classical version or I want this to be a jazz version." You can tell the AI and it will remix the song and then you can listen to it like that.
Again, this is offensive to me because I'm like, "Why would you want this? It's not what the original creator intended. If you want that type of music, go and find it from somebody else that makes it. Why are we using AI for this?" Cuz the AI inherently and fundamentally has stolen this content from other creators and is just regurgitating it.
It is absolute garbage and again, I don't think these companies get the message. Spotify needs to piss off with AI stuff. Again, if they came out and said, "We're we're we're not having AI at all on our platform. We don't want it." I think people would be like, "Wow, this is great." And and they'd really enjoy a service.
But of course, as we know, there's tons of AI artists on Spotify. Some of them are getting incredible amounts of views and it's just sad. It's absolutely sad. So, The Economist is reporting Google is dethroning OpenAI as the king of consumer AI. Now, what I want to do here is kind of expand on what I was saying earlier on in the video.
Now, Google is shoving its AI into everything. It's in Google Search. Every time you do a search on Google, unless you specifically say, "I do not want AI." But I mean, a lot of the time you're just going to quickly Google something. It's going to come up with the the AI overview. That makes you a consumer user of their AI models, right?
This is not you going to chat GPT and typing in the result. You're just Googling. Everybody Googles. Not everybody uses chat GPT. So, on a very simple level, it's obvious that this headline probably is true. And again, this is probably making early investors in open AI think, "Oh Oh my god, we need to This company needs to IPO as soon as possible because we need to sell their shares immediately." And it would I wouldn't put it past open AI that whenever it eventually does IPO, it just tanks on the stock market.
And the big worry is when it does that, it might take everything else with them because they are seen as the darling of the AI world. Although, maybe that could be a little bit of an outdated viewpoint because this company has been on a you know, a pretty solid downward trajectory in terms of its metrics and in terms of its PR image for a while now.
So, maybe it won't be as bad when this does collapse, but I do fully believe open AI is going to really struggle. So, The Information got an article on this, but I just want to pull out these quotes from this article with these sections. Again, there's a link to this in video description below. So, open AI's first quarter data suggests it's on track to hit its earlier goal of generating 30 billion in revenue in 2026.
The data also showed that it's still operating deeply in the red and the company's chatbot user growth has stalled. That's the key thing here. Open AI has told investors that its adjusted operating income margin was minus 122% in the first quarter according to the people. That means that for every dollar of revenue the company generated, it lost $1.22 even after excluding some large line items such as stock-based compensation, according to one of the people.
Open AI faces another challenge, growing chat GPT usage. Open AI's weekly active users for the quarter averaged about 905 million users, according to two people. Although, the company hit about 920 million weekly active users in February. The lower average figure for the quarter implies that usage during the rest of the quarter was weaker than the February snapshot.
The number of users at the end of March couldn't be learned. The company had expected to hit 1 billion weekly active users by the end of last year. Uh but it warned employees to expect rough vibes as anti-consumer AI uh anti anti-consumer. That's That's me reading that. I should read that again cuz it doesn't say that.
It says as consumer AI rival not anti-consumer AI company. So, as consumer AI rival Google made gains with its Gemini chatbot. Google is increasingly fusing Gemini with its core search engine, which has billions of users. This is what I'm saying, right? Google is just shoving their stuff into everything.
So, that they easily can inflate their numbers like we've got billions and billions of users. We're destroying your usage. You've got no chance of catching us up. But I think the key thing here is ChatGPT, you have to go back to the the the heady days when the ChatGPT launched only a few years ago. Um it was insane.
I'm sure we all had that moment where it was like, "Oh my god, look at this. You can talk to this thing and it gives you a result. This is amazing." We didn't actually fully understand what the thing was at the time, how it was trained, how it was actually produced. Now we do, but ChatGPT had this meteoric rise, had a ton of investment in the private market, and then it stalled because it cannot actually work out how to make money.
The only thing it's doing as far as I can understand is Codex, which is the coding agent, which is basically to compete with Claude from Anthropic, Claude code, which is what's generating them a ton of money. Um the chatbot doesn't generate money. They tried to put adverts in it, that doesn't generate money.
They are trying a lot of things to make money and it isn't working. It looks like their ultimate play here is to IPO, is to go, "Okay, promise something insane." Probably along the line of the same lines of Elon Musk. Just promise something insane. "We're going to be on Mars with a million person colony.
Let's go." SpaceX IPO. It's like, come on. Like that's not We're going to put data centers in space. It's like, "Okay, maybe, but that's still long way away. Like what what what we what you're saying? I mean, with Tesla, it's like, "Look, we're going to have full self-driving cars." We haven't got full self-driving cars.
We've got cars that can do a bit of self-driving, don't get me wrong, but they're not full self-driving cars. So, all these crazy things, um but I I I just don't think Sam Altman's going to be able to do that. I just think I just don't think that's going to be possible for him. So, let's jump over to the Financial Times, because this is relevant.
This is the uh SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic IPOs are going to ignite a trading frenzy on Wall Street. Now, this is referring to a thing called fast entry. This is the a new system of adding your um company to the Nasdaq and and and uh I think it's for the Nasdaq specifically. Yeah, for the Nasdaq. Um and yeah yeah, here we go.
Fast entry rules that thrust uh the stock straight into Wall Street indices. Again, I'm not going to I I don't understand the technicalities of this, but the process was different in the past, but they've changed it to get SpaceX on because they really wanted the listing and blah blah blah. Um but the key takeaway from all of this is again that issue of you've got these three companies that are going to IPO.
These companies are you you know, they're SpaceX thinks it's worth nearly 2 trillion, right? On the private market, but it doesn't have the revenue to back that up, but it's saying that the future TAM, which is uh total addressable market, is going to be 25, 30 trillion, and they're going to be the the start of this.
And so, if you want to invest in them, it's going to be a massive amount of return cuz they're going to own this incredible industry and blah blah blah. OpenAI, as we've discussed in this video, are struggling. Anthropic seems to be in the ascendancy when it comes to these AI coding bots and agentic AI systems.
They're the sort of go-to one. I've obviously got Mythos as well, which is this whole, "Oh my god, it's a massive security threat. It can do incredible things." blah blah blah. And OpenAI is falling behind in a lot of this. Now, I've got to say, I don't really care either way for these companies. Like I said, I've got big issues with the way um AI models are trained.
I've got big issues with the amount of capital being spent. I've got big issues with people losing their job Um and I've got big issues with just these systems not actually doing anything. Like I again, and I know I've referenced this a lot in the videos that I made, but my utopian view of the of AI was I want it to cure diseases.
I want When I first came across this, I was like, "Oh my god, it can do a lot of different things simultaneously. Maybe it can look at different problems in different ways and come to conclusions that we could never have worked out as humans." And this is going to be actually insane, but instead, we've just ended up with chatbots, image generators, video generators, fake content creators, fake music, fake books, fake movies.
Like, come on. This is like just garbage. And out of all of this, we've just got coding agents, which you know, are seen as pretty strong. Even the Codex agent from coding model from OpenAI is seen as a really strong model. But again, they don't replace software engineers. They just enable a lot of the sort of groundwork to be done really fast and then software engineers still need to go back and check on things.
And again, like I referenced at the top of this video, you've got things like the system Starbucks were using where it was wrong. And they only found out it was wrong after it'd been used for a while and that's actually devastating, right? So, there's going to be these issues with the code as well. So, SpaceX has an AI division because SpaceX owns or I think SpaceX bought open not OpenAI, xAI, right?
And owns Twitter as well or X, whatever the hell it's called. But, they've got I think it's Colossus 1 and Colossus 2. They've got these massive data centers, massive amounts of GPUs in, tons of compute. But, they are selling their compute to Anthropic, which I think is a damning indictment that actually the Grok models are garbage.
The people running Grok don't know what they're doing. Their models are terrible and they've got too much compute and they can't actually use it. So, now they're renting it away to a company that can, which is a direct rival, which is Anthropic for 15 billion a year. And I think this actually does I would look at this and go this to me says Elon Musk's X AI doesn't know what it's doing and now it's just becoming a rental company because it can't actually compete in any way with these other AI companies.
Okay, let's end this with the speculation for OpenAI's IPO. So, CNBC is reporting that OpenAI to confidentially file for IPO as soon as Friday. And the key points are OpenAI is preparing to confidentially file a draft of its IPO prospectus as soon as Friday, CNBC confirmed. The AI company is working with banks including Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley to prepare to file in the coming days or weeks according to source familiar with plans.
An OpenAI representative said in a statement that the company's focus remains on execution. Well, it's possible that the company is about to get executed when it goes on the public markets or there could be a lot of retail investors holding the bag as they all come rushing in thinking I want to buy some OpenAI and actually it turns out that the company tanks.
Also, it's got to be said as well, again, I'm not going to be overly technical here cuz I don't entirely understand all this myself, but like there are um ETFs and index funds which when companies get to a certain size, if you're invested in an ETF, you have exposure to one of these companies. So, you know, if you're in like I don't know what the ETFs are, but let's say you're in like a S&P 500 ETF, you're going to have exposure to all the top 500 companies, but also the biggest companies in that block are going to you're going to have more exposure to them even though you're not individually invested into them.
And I think that's obviously something that OpenAI would love to happen if their value becomes so much that they are forcibly included in those kind of ETF baskets I think they're referred to them as. But I don't know, this to me just I if I was an investor and if I was looking at OpenAI, honestly, I'd like I'd be very wary of this because we know what this company has done and we know that it it's not really there's not been any kind of meaningful usage of their AI.
They can keep saying they're going to do this, they're going to build out more compute, they're going to be able to get AGI and all this, but we're not seeing any results and I I just think it's just like what I just think it's crap. I think this company's crap and I don't think this company's going to do very well long term.
Also, I'm completely against what Spotify is I was going to say Shopify, that's the wrong platform. Spotify is doing with AI, that is just completely stupid, doesn't make any sense at all and um I think it's funny that Starbucks have made a mess. All right, guys. I hope you enjoyed that video. I've got to say it is actually boiling in the UK now.
So, I'm going to end this video before I literally melt away. It's like 30° apparently, which is not good. I don't know what the heat the situation with the heat is in the UK, but it always feels a lot hotter than it actually is. You know, I've been in other countries like I've been in California when it's like 32° and it feels cold.
Yeah, it don't feel cold. It feels mega hot. Anyway, all right, guys. Thanks for watching the video. You know, you can follow me on everything which is @solosam and I'll catch you little lot on the next one. See you soon.
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