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what you learn from history is the market goes down it goes down a lot the math is simple there's been 93 years a century this is easy to do the markets had 50 declines of 10 or more so 50 declines in 93 years but once every two years the market falls 10 percent we call that a correction that means that's a euphemism for losing a lot of money rapidly we call it a correction and uh so 50 declines in 93 years about once every two years the market falls 10 of those 50 declines 15 have been 25 or more that's known as a bear market we've had 15 declines in 93 years so every six years the market's gonna have a 25 decline that's all you need to know you need to know the market's gonna go down sometime if you're not ready for that you shouldn't own stocks and it's good when it happens if you like a stock at 14 it goes to six that's great you understand the company you look at the balance sheet they're doing fine and you're hoping to get to 22 with it 14 to 22 is terrific 6 to 22 is exceptional so you take advantage of these declines they're going to happen no one knows when they're going to happen so that there is peter lynch he ran the magellan fund at fidelity for 13 years and turned 18 million into 14 billion at an average annual return of 29.2 and many people think of lynch as this stock market big brain genius but the more you look into him the more you realize that his success came from a mastery of the long-term investing temperament and when it comes to investing during a period of extreme volatility such as a market crash it's this investing temperament that largely decides whether you succeed or fail so in this video i'm going to take you through some clips from this 1994 lecture by peter lynch and will hear firsthand the mental tips and tricks he used to profit from big market crashes this video is brought to you by sharesight sicte now as sad as it is most investors usually do pretty terribly when they're hit with a market crash there's shocking news headlines you know fear is everywhere and people tend to make very silly decisions so as peter lynch will now explain the first step in profiting from a stock market crash is to just know that a crash will come you know it's inevitable your portfolio will be hit and it's only a matter of time and no one can predict it people get too carried away and first of all they try and predict the stock market that is a total waste of time no one can predict the stock market but i'm trying to tell you it'd be very useful to know what the stock market is going to do it'd be terrific to know that the dow jones average a year for now would be x then we're going to have a full scale recession our interest rate's going to be 12 that's useful stuff you never know it though you just don't get to learn it so i've always said if you spend 14 minutes a year in economics you've wasted 12 minutes and i i really believe that so don't think you're going to be able to see the crash coming but understand that it will happen it will catch you out of the blue at some point in your investing career so if you're going to be a holder of common stock the first step in profiting from a crash is to be at peace with the idea that you're going to cop one and no one can see it coming and if you are at peace with that idea then you can start to understand ways to profit from this inevitable event occurring and the key organ in your body in the stock market is your stomach it's not the brain if you can add eight and eight get reasonably close to 16 that's the only level of math you need to know all you have to know is you're going to see it's always going to be scary there's going to be always something to worry about and you just have to forget all about it cut it all out and own good companies our own turnarounds study them and you'll do well and that's all there is and i've i'm ready for questions so when it comes to making money from a market crash it's really all about your stomach you really don't have to be a genius you know the mathematical side of things is actually quite easy but it's the temperamental side of investing that's very tough and that's why most people lose money when the market crashes even though it's actually raining gold so at this point we understand that you know these crashes will happen we won't see it coming and it's fear and panic that usually lead us to doing dumb things that cause permanent loss of capital so now let's turn our attention to some of the things we need to do to be able to profit from a market crash and the first step as peter lynch would say is you need to know what you own i made money in dunkin donuts i can understand it i uh when there was recessions i didn't have to worry about what was happening i could go there and people were still there i didn't have to worry about low price korean imports i mean i just didn't know you know i can understand it and you laugh i made 10 or 15 times my money in dunkin donuts those are the kind of stocks i can understand you shouldn't be calling your broker four times a day to get stock quotes it doesn't work getting up in the morning to look to see how you stocked yesterday is not useful you should be looking at the company when you get the quarterly reports you should if you're at the mall imagine if you were in the re if you're in the retailing industry or if you're in restaurant industry you would have seen taco bell you would have seen mcdonald's you were seeing toys r us i mean you were seeing all these companies do terrifically well you've seen bombay you're seeing tandy with radio shack and you've seen radio shack roll across the country pretty soon they were you know 25 raider shacks in every major city and he said there's not much room for them to go but they had a 20-year great run that's what you're dealing with you're not dealing with the minutia of today you're dealing what's this company doing two years three years four years five years from now so peter lynch touches on two key points that honestly will get you through any market crash very very well the first point is to understand what you're holding in your portfolio you know if you really do understand what you've bought your fear and anxiety will be vastly reduced when the stock is plummeting because you know you're holding a great business you know you know that that business is rock solid it has no debt for example has great profit margins it has a huge competitive advantage and you went in and you did the calculations and you worked out that you bought it well below its intrinsic value you know if you know that when the stock craters you'll actually start getting excited because you know that you're actually buying one dollar for 50 cents but if you haven't done the work then when that stock plummets because of you know abc reasons you won't know where that company will be in a year's time you know it's it's like going scuba diving you always check your equipment you check the ocean conditions you make sure you go out with a buddy you don't just grab your regulator and just wing it at 10 pm at night by yourself and just hope for the best overall the more checks you do with your companies the better off you'll be at making smart decisions when the sky is falling and then secondly lynch also touches on the idea of maintaining a long long-term investing outlook you know if the stock market crashes and you're expecting to make you know 10 this month maybe to help cover your rent payments four good luck you'll definitely lose money but if your goal is to say come out ahead in 10 years time then all of a sudden stock market crashes are not scary at all they're just like they're black friday sales but in the stock market you find the right businesses buy them up when the stock market is depressed and then you wait you just wait that's all you have to do you wait for the market to eventually correct itself over the next year two three years and then you've made money look even in the gfc it only took five and a half years to get back to where you were at the previous top and if you held on for 10 years well you've made a lot of money so don't get you know you have to understand it and say they're doing well and as long as they keep doing well my best stocks have been my fifth sixth seventh year i own them not my fifth sixth seventh day so you have to understand that and uh stay with it you only need to buy a few stocks every decade when your lifetime's over you don't need a lot of five baggers to make a lot of money starting with ten thousand dollars or five thousand dollars you could about walmart ten years after they went public and made 35 times your money if you bought it when they went public you would have made 500 times your money but you can wait 10 years after walmart went public and made uh 30 over 30 times your money you could wait three years after microsoft went public and made 10 times your money so find the great companies and stick with them then if the market does crash you know run over your valuation and you'll probably find you have an amazing long-term opportunity to buy the business very cheap you know as buffett says we buy one dollar bills for 50 cents that's our goal and the other thing peter touches on in that clip is how you only need a few killer stocks in your lifetime you know normally it's extremely hard to find these kinds of opportunities but the crazy thing about a market crash is that these infrequent buying opportunities they actually start popping up everywhere you know in big market crashes like the gfc basically your entire watch list will become so cheap that all the stocks represent big multi-bagger opportunities so knowing that you only need a few big stocks in your lifetime and these opportunities normally come very infrequently hopefully that changes your mindset in the depths of a big market crash turn that feeling of fear into a feeling of opportunity you know this is rare and i'm gonna grab it with both hands then lastly i also just wanted to play one final clip from peter about a very desirable characteristic of a company particularly during a recession or a market crash there's a lot of times people buy on the basis the stock has gone down this much you know how much further can you go down i did the same thing in my uh i think my first or second year fidelity kaiser industries had gone from 26 this year to 16.
i said how much lower can it go it's 16. so i think we bought one of the biggest blocks ever in the new york on the american stock exchange of kaiser industries at 14. i said you know it's gone from 26 to 16 how much we're going to go well at 10 i called my mother and said mom you're going to uh look at this kaiser industries i mean how much lower can it go it's gone from 26 to 10.
well it went to six it went to five it went to four and went to three and at three i figured out you know there's something very wrong here because kaiser industries owns forty percent of kaiser steel they own forty percent of kai's aluminum they own thirty two percent of kaiser cement they own kaiser broadcast and they own kaiser santa gravel kaiser engineers they own jeep they own business after business and they had no debt now i learned this very early this might be a breakthrough for so many people it's very hard to go bankrupt if you don't have any debt it's tricky some people approach that it's a it's a real achievement but they had no debt and the whole company at three was selling at about 75 million that point it was equal to buying one boeing 747 i said there's something wrong with this company selling for 75 million i was a little premature at 16 but uh i said everything's fine and eventually this work out and they what they did is they gave away all their shares to their shareholders they passed out shares and guys meant they passed their chairs and kai's aluminum they passed out their public shares and kaiser steel they sold all the other businesses and you get about fifty dollars a share and but if you didn't understand the company if you're just buying on the fact the stock had gone from 26 to 16 and then it got into 10 what would you do when went to nine what would you do when went to eight what would you do when went to seven this is the problem that people have is they sell stocks because they didn't know why they bought it then it went down and they don't know what to do now do you flip a coin do you walk around the block you know what do you do he's absolutely right most people don't know what to do when the stock goes down because they don't know enough about the company but what was interesting about his story about kaiser industries is he knew the business was fine because it had no debt if the cash flows stay decent enough to cover the expenses the business has no debt then it's practically impossible for that company to go bust so another tip in recessions scary times market crashes is just to make sure that your companies have debt levels under control you know for example facebook has no debt google has i think 14 billion dollars in debt but it has 142 billion dollars worth of cash or short-term marketable securities they're just not going bankrupt and if they aren't going bankrupt if nothing can force them into bankruptcy then it's only a matter of time before the market crash or the storm is over and things just go back to the way they were so there's another reassuring factor you know in the depths of a recession if your company has no debt you have that added layer of security about the future of the business but anyway guys that would just about do for today they are peter lynch's tips as to not only not only surviving but thriving from market crashes i really like listening to peter talk because he's just so damn rational he just knows exactly what to say uh but hopefully that gives you a little bit of insight into kind of the mindset and the tips and tricks how you can actually end up profiting quite substantially from stock market crashes they are you know if maybe you haven't been through a big one before they are quite scary particularly for new investors but really when when you take the time to understand this long-term investing temperament they represent the best opportunities you will ever get in the stock market long term stock market crashes are your friend so anyway guys that will just about do us for this video leave a like on it if you did enjoy or if you found it useful subscribe to the channel if you've not done so already if you are interested in how i go about my investing my active investing strategy and you just wanted an eight-hour step-by-step course on how to implement the warren buffett peter lynch style value investing strategy then you can check out profitful introduction to stock analysis that'll be left down in the description below but guys that will just about do us thanks always to the patreon supporters for you know supporting the channel and making these videos possible i appreciate it and i'll see you guys in the next video thanks again to sharesight for sponsoring this video so recently i finally decided to stop being lazy and i imported all of my stock portfolios across into sharesight finally i should have done that a hell of a lot sooner so with sharesight you sign up you link your shareside account with your stock broker or you just add your positions manually and then from there sharesight tracks everything for you it tracks your capital gains it tracks your dividends it'll track your dividend reinvestment plans it'll track gains and losses from currency fluctuations seriously this is by far the most thorough portfolio tracker i have ever seen and because they track and record everything so thoroughly they can provide you with 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