저자: TomLee · 외국인
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결론: 시장은 중앙은행 유동성과 위험프리미엄 축소에 힘입어 상승세가 이어질 것이며, 최고점 형성은 아직 이르다는 낙관론. 시장 현황: 다우는 하루 하락 마감했지만 사상 최고치 경신 흐름이며 최근 12개월 약 34% 상승. 주식뿐 아니라 채권과 금도 매수세가 유입되는 중. 유동성·자금 흐름: 과거 2년간 현금을 과도하게 보유했던 투자자들이 다시 위험자산으로 자금을 이동시키고 있으며, 해외 자금도 미국 위험자산으로 유입된다고 봄. 2020년 역시 위험프리미엄 축소로 PE 배수 확대가 이어질 것으로 전망. 연준 정책: 연준 대차대조표가 역사상 최대 수준으로 커지고 있어 완화 기조가 주식을 지지. 연준이 금리를 되돌리면 시장은 정체될 수 있으나, 글로벌 문제로 당분간 중앙은행이 세계 경기를 떠받치는 역할을 한다고 평가. 섹터 전략: 두 가지 테마 제시. 첫째, PMI 회복에 따른 기술·산업재 등 경기순환주 매수(산업재는 Dover 등 언급, 기술주 중심 상승). 둘째, 주식 대비 채권의 위험프리미엄이 높은 헬스케어 등 고위험프리미엄 종목 매수. 헬스케어는 이 기준상 현재 가장 저평가된 섹터라고 언급. 채권 금리: 10년물 금리는 1.7%대. 장단기 금리차 역전 재발 시 주식 급락 가능성이 있으나, 최근 금리 하락은 코로나19 등에 따른 위험회피 성격으로 해석. 2019~2020년 저점 경신은 우려 요인. 인플레이션: 실질 인플레이션은 아직 2% 이상으로 올라오지 않았고, 기대인플레이션 상승은 시간이 걸리며 2020년에는 투자 판단에서 비중이 낮을 것으로 봄. 다만 2021년에는 연준이 필요 이상 오래 완화할 경우 문제 될 수 있음. 비트코인: 2020년 반감기 이후 공급 감소와 대선 사이클에 따른 관심 증가, 중동 지정학 긴장 등을 근거로 강세 전망. 출연자 리스크 언급: 코로나19가 중국 등 글로벌 성장 전망에 역풍이 될 수 있다고 언급하며 산업재 단기 타격 가능성 인정.
다듬은 글
well even though the Dow end-of-the-day lower overall it was another record day on Wall Street that has that closing in and yet another new high it's now up nearly 34 percent in 12 months but it's not just stocks getting bought this year bonds they've also caught a bid recently and because the buyers yields have moved down the tenure at one point seven three percent let's talk more about all of this and maybe a little about crypto with Tom Lee co-founder in the head of research at fun strat Global Advisors stocks up bonds up Gold's up real estate sup how your great questions yes I think it shows that people may have owned too much cash in the past two years and now we're somebody had a bunch of cash sitting around a couple trillion that's right it's not yeah not just central banks I actually think there's money flowing into the US so I think when we see the TIC data will fire gonna see foreign inflows into risky assets in the US as well so I think this the story this year looks a lot like risk premia shrinking which means continuation last year where PE multiples keep expanding is there a way to quantify and I know we've talked about it and guide Ami's been talking about it and Tim's we've all been talking about any way to quantify how much of this run is central bank driven if if central banks weren't easy let's say the Fed kept rates where they were just reverse the December 2018 cut but did nothing else where would the market t I think markets would stall I mean maybe not because that fundamental flows would stall but I think perception would change and I think people would pause to see how things would unfold and therefore stocks would stall you and you the the growth of the balance sheet its historic it's gonna be by April the bouncy the Fed will be larger than it's ever been in history in an environment where I mean according to people in the administration it's the best economy ever why are we taking emergency measures in a situation where there are what's the emergency yeah I mean I I sympathize with that view because you know at this point in the expansion debt should be government debt should be shrinking but I think there are problems outside the US so I think the central bank is still carrying the rate of weight of the world and I think that's why we have the accommodation and for the moment it is good for a risk assets which again is good for the economy so but in terms of asset allocation Tom's is the thing to do here it seems like the mega caps are catching this large basket of money coming in do you stay in these trades that have worked that are obviously in some cases Google's not a difficult valuation to get you know apples not a terrible valuation relative to itself it might be but how do you play this or you go into underperformers because they have underperformed yeah III think there's sort of two themes you can play this year one is the PM eyes recover and so you want to be long the tech the industrial is really that cyclical trade and really led by tech but the other is risk premia is coming down stock equity risk premia to bonds is still really elevated and you want to buy stocks that have high risk premia like health care is is actually cheapest sector today on that basis so tom back to the bonds o for a second I mean last summer when we saw the 210 yield invert well obviously the Fed fixed that sort of thing that was kind of an issue and we saw the 10-year Treasury go down to you know multi-year lows one four five you had this bounce it could not get through to heading back down it's actually breaking the uptrend that it had been in since the summer and if you were to see that yield curves kind of flatten again are we gonna have those same sorts of concerns especially after all that easy money that we've had in the last six months or so is it really speaking to just really that the growth is not there and then when you talk about these risk premiums that maybe they're just getting a little too elevated yeah I mean if the curve flattens again or inverts it's bad and so stocks are gonna tumble or have some stumbles but I'm not surprised yields are kind of falling because you know with with coronavirus I would imagine people are gonna do some risk off and I think people made a lot of money last year so I think I'm kind of more at ripping this to sort of you know potential risk because this could be 2003 SARS again when you talk about industrials are you looking for us-centric or us contained industrials as opposed to yeah yeah cuz I I think it makes sense that you should see some short-term effect from the quarantine Xand the slowing trade so I mean I think missing materials may be hit harder but with industrials you know they tend to do well when the PMA's recovers so we're anticipating a recovering the ice I'm about 50 and so guys like Dover and you know maybe domestic less aerospace but yeah we talked about Dover last week remember we did all-time-high going back to 1950 you got to go back to Fonzie Wow / which is usually where people go back there by the way where where is inflation the Fed is pumping money at the problem we still don't have real inflation above 2% we haven't forever are they gonna keep going until they get that inflation target because at some point you either just give up yeah or are you just gonna there's gonna double down yeah I mean I would say incurred inflation expectations are gonna take a long time for people to start to think about inflation it should start to rise this year because labor markets are tightening so I think for 2020 it's less of a part of the calculus for investors but which means the Fed you know might be easy longer than we need to be but that might be a problem in 2021 quickly still bullish on Bitcoin yeah 2021 2020 should be great for Bitcoin because you got number one the havening happening the block reward for miners getting cut in half that's a good supply demand change I think last year the white house killed the Bitcoin rally by turning by the with their opposition but with the presidential election cycle under way it's not gonna be in the headlines and that's bullish for Bitcoin and then with you know geopolitical tensions in the Middle East I think that's good for crypto so should be a lot tail once we're getting a lot more interest in it as well from our clients you are you starting to see more you Lynch a lot alright Tom Lee a funds rep Tom was a real pleasure yeah great to see you alright you know guy Downey we have people are gonna criticize it criticizes you everybody else for saying all it's the Federal Reserve you know it is the Federal Reserve but at the same time it's just benefited people and and at some point even even the biggest Fed haters in the world the Jekyll Island rejecters have to at some point acknowledge that and maybe cave in and say you know what I'm gonna forget it I said second part of that question is what do you think of Chuck on happy days I know what he had a brief stint Chuck he was saying he played basketball I think he went off to college and then the people realize that you know we don't need Chuck and Ritchie give it to Ritchie and let Joey play a minor role that's what I think number one - listen I get it I say it all the time it doesn't matter the reasons your stocks go higher the money in your account is as real as it was if it was going up for the quote-unquote right reasons but at what cost and you answer your question about where's inflation well it's in everything we talk about every night because asset inflation is absolutely here I'm paying for education I don't know if you folks have seen that health care is through the roof and technology is the most deflationary force in history and we're dealing with it now so the feds fighting the wrong enemy right now inflation is everywhere except where they look for it in my opinion I'll just say one thing Tom Lee agree with me if the ten-year Treasury yield breaks that double bottom low from 2016 to last summer I think alarm bells are gonna go off and risk I say if we get close that damn well we'll have had alarm bells no I mean you're talking about 140 136 to locate Martin I mean look you know when it when it broke 2% last year it went straight back to that low and it held and it only held because the Fed got in there and they've written they cut rates three consecutive meetings starting in July 31st and then they started buying you know a hundred billion dollars a month in in Treasuries I share your frustration and I'm not saying that it couldn't happen I'm telling you though if we start to challenge even 150 we have some structural issues that that are not here and now and I and I realize that we all believe that the Fed is has greased the rails here and certainly the coronavirus could be doing such to at least put headwinds into the global growth forecast but 135 to 140 tells you we've got much bigger problems you
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