저자: JimRogers · 외국인
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결론: 짐 로저스는 미국 증시가 사상 최고치로 비싸며 1~2년 내 하락 가능성이 높다고 보고 매도를 시사하지만, 시점 예측은 하지 않는다. 투자 원칙: 로저스는 '싸게 사서 비싸게 판다'는 원칙을 강조하며, 핫팁을 피하고 충분히 공부한 뒤 투자하라고 조언한다. 쉬워 보이지만 높고 낮음을 판단하는 것이 어렵다고 말한다. 가치 판단: 현재 미국 주식시장은 역사적 최고 수준의 밸류에이션이며, 버핏지표와 CAPE 지수가 차트 밖으로 벗어나 비현실적이라는 진행자 질문에 동의하는 취지로 답한다. 부동산과 채권도 일부 거품이라고 언급한다. 저평가 자산: 러시아 주식과 원자재(상품 생산업체 또는 원자재 ETF)가 현재 싸다고 본다. 은은 고점 대비 60~70% 하락해 싸 보인다고 언급한다. 중국: 중국 경기 둔화가 글로벌 시장이 과소평가한 성장 둔화의 초기 신호일 수 있다고 보며, 본인은 중국 주식을 보유 중이나 아직 매도하지 않았다고 밝힌다. 시장 전망: 연준이 시장 하락 시 돈을 더 찍어 한 번 더 상승할 수 있다고 보지만, 이는 연준의 행동에 대한 추측이다. 전체적으로 지금은 매도할 시기라는 취지다. 리스크: 장기 강세장이 언젠가 끝날 것이라는 점, 하락장에 휘말리지 않도록 주의해야 한다는 점을 강조한다. 진행자는 금리가 낮아 주식에 머무르는 것을 질문했으나 명확한 해법은 제시되지 않았다.
다듬은 글
hi i'm david scranton and thanks for clicking this video because today we're talking about personal finance and the good habits to establish before you head into retirement and i'm here with jeff small president of arbor financial services as well as jim rogers the chairman of rogers holdings and beyland trust incorporated gentlemen great to have you both back on the show as usual i am delighted to be here i'm in singapore in quarantine and singapore and quarantine i know you're in singapore i'm sorry to hear you're in quarantine jim we're kind of all in quarantine though in general with this virus however we're talking about personal finance today and i know you studied philosophy what is your personal philosophy when it comes to managing money buy low and sell high that's a pretty easy one you can give us so i know it sounds easy david but it is not easy it is sounds so easy and it sounds so wonderful and you see people on tv and you say i could do that i could have bought apple ha the problem is knowing what is low and what is high that's the very difficult part my i have learned over the years to try to find things that are ignored and that are cheap because people ignore them but where there's a positive change taking place if you can find something cheap where there's change good change taking place you might make a lot of money so buying incorrectly you say could be the biggest mistake when it comes to personal finances and the average investor really doesn't know when to buy do they jim the average investor should not do anything until he or she knows a lot about something don't listen to hot tips everybody wants a hot tip david everybody wants to be rich this week avoid hot tips and wait until you yourself know a lot about something and then do some more research and then buy and then call me because that's how you get rich well the average investor is generally trying to get rich jim and so i think that that focus really undermines the potential to be successful in retirement or to achieve the retirement goals don't you think if you want to listen to hot tips and jump in and out all the time you're never going to be successful and you're never going to be rich and you're going to be working the rest of your life so jim i'm confused jim i thought you made your investment decision decisions by reading the stuff on reddit i mean that's not that's not how you make buy sell decisions i don't know how else to do it then i watched david scranton i love it i love it there you go that's good this good advice that i i appreciate the uh the pitch you know you said last time we had spoken to you in june um that it's bad to be young today and i know you're talking about the national debt and what we're doing as a country and i want to talk about that with you in the next segment but do you think even as an investor it's harder for young people today to buy low and sell high than maybe when we were growing up because of all the computerized trading and how manipulated values are but you can always find something this cheap i mean russia is cheap right now commodities are cheap right now there are always something that's cheap if you do your research and look around and tonight certainly the united states stock market is at an all-time high that's not cheap property is in a bubble in many places bonds are in a bubble but many stocks are still cheap i guess i figure when we were growing up it was more buy and hold you did your analysis you could be sure it's undervalued you buy and hold today things seem so manipulated that it's it's just it's got to be a little bit harder for the younger generation it seems but david i mean silver is down 60 percent from its all-time high that might be cheap yeah okay i mean down 70 from its all-time high that's not a bubble it might be cheap so jim jeff here hey listen china is starting to slow down and so i think the markets globally over there have underestimated the scale of growth on a potential slowdown do you think that's going to happen in the united states with all the stimulus that we've had that we're underestimating the scale of potential slowdown when the stimulus ends well we've had the longest bull market in american history in fact one of the longest bull markets in any history so it's going to end someday maybe the slowdown in china is one of the early signs that the world is going to go into going to have problems some today i own chinese shares i have not sold any yet but i certainly notice what's happening i know that the chinese central bank is not printing a lot of money like a lot of banks were like like we're like they and like a lot of people were so maybe we're getting closer to i know we're getting closer to the end i don't know that this is the end of jeffrey well that's very interesting because i've heard a lot of very interesting commentary recently about how to re-evaluate the market but when you look at things like the buffett indicator or the cape index they're off the charts jim i mean they just seem completely unrealistic how can the market march higher from here well next year's earnings beat 2021s in the united states i guess is the ultimate question you are exactly right that all of the signs are there we've seen this movie before with stocks in areas where normally and historically they should be sold and maybe they should be but jeffrey what i suspect is that if they start going down the federal reserve the central bank is going to panic and print even more money and so there's going to be one more move up now i'm not good market timing but i would suspect that the fed because they want to keep their jobs are going to keep this going as long as they can it's going to end it's certainly going to end within the next year or two maybe you should sell because i'm not selling yet i love that advice that's great yeah i have a friend actually who's a financial advisor believe it or not he says the same thing he says you want to make money just buy what i sell just sell what i buy it's it's that easy so jim you know if somebody wants to stay in the game and they want to stay in the stock market um because interest rates are low where would you advise them today to look to do it in a way where maybe they're a little bit more protected you tell me how to put i've never used that word in the investment world there's no such thing in the stock market i know i know is that an oxymoron dave so but what where would you tell them right now then maybe for the best opportunities that might have the longest positive run ahead versus places where you think the run you know the gig could be up well the places that i can see the only places i see that are cheap as i said before commodities uh you can look at commodity producers or you can buy commodity etfs you don't have to buy futures that's the best place i can tell you that russia's cheap i suspect most of your viewers are not going to think about buying russia i've been buying russia because it's very cheap it's hated nobody likes russia so there are places but they are getting fewer and farther further between and if you don't want to worry about market timing you know everything jeffrey says is right everything is at all-time high senate very very high levels evaluation levels and historically this is the time to sell yeah i guess if you're going to be have you're going to be in the domestic markets i guess you got to have one figure on the trigger you got to watch it closely because you certainly don't want to get caught in a down draft so jim rogers thanks once again for being with us here thank you my pleasure and if you enjoyed this video please give us a thumbs up and subscribe to our youtube channel for more interviews with top names in the financial industry
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