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골드만삭스가 장단기 금리 역전이 과거처럼 임박한 경기침체 신호가 아니라고 주장하며, 12개월 내 미국 경기침체 확률을 20%로 낮췄다. 영상 진행자는 경기침체 확률이 낮고 인플레이션 둔화로 연준 금리인하가 이미 가격에 반영돼 있으며, 금리역전은 이번에 다를 수 있다는 골드만의 논리를 소개하면서도 S&P500 이익 감소(-8.1%)와 상업용 부동산 리스크 등 우려 요인도 함께 제시한다.
다듬은 글
ready for it this time is different reports let's get into why Goldman Sachs says this time is different now that the inverted yield curve isn't as bad as it seems we know that generally the inverted yield curve when you look at the difference between the 10 year and the two-year treasury being inverted is a signal a Surefire signal of a recession to come and it is one of the most prominent signals for Bears to say we're done we're out we are sitting the sidelines because it's just a matter of time the bond market knows best now Goldman Sachs says well maybe they don't let's analyze why Goldman Sachs thinks that especially since the most dangerous words in investing or this time is different but before we do let's give you a quick reminder of what the yield curve chart looks like this is the chart of the inverted yield curve as you can see we had a massive inversion lower than where we sit now right before the banking crisis we were so inverted because that February and January data was coming out so strong markets were convinced the Federal Reserve was going to hike us to Oblivion when the banking crisis occurred we actually had a very rapid steepening of the yield curve because markets thought oh my gosh this is it the FED will stop hiking because of the banking crisis and they won't drive us into a deep dark ugly recession now the bond markets once again seems convinced with an almost 100 basis point in version of the yield curve this type of inversion by the way forecasts over 500 basis points of fed Cuts being priced into the market going forward now there is a potentially simple explanation and we'll look at what Goldman says a potentially simple explanation is look everybody expects inflation to be transitory now and if you expect inflation to be transitory you expect that the 10-year treasury yield and the two-year treasury yield won't last this long so what happens people demand a higher yield now for two-year bonds because we're still in a period of high inflation but when that high inflation goes away people will once again return to accepting a lower yield on the two-year and a higher yield on the longer term commitment the tenure who knows that's been my simple explanation though I give a lot of credence to the bond market and I like to pay attention to uh anything that that's potentially a negative signal I'm not a big fan of getting trapped in confirmation bias I want to see what is everyone else thinking uh but lately all the Bears have been flip flow okay well not all of them but I I vomit when I see the Bears flip-flop with the argument of well you know we're still bearish but we're going to increase our Equity allocation because uh you know stocks are going up that was TS Lombard for you last a little respect there anyway Goldman Sachs first I think Note 4 is their inverted yield curve uh discussion but let's take a look at some of the things that Goldman Sachs saying here first Goldman Sachs just cut their probability of a U.S recession starting within the next 12 months to just 20 20 that is a down from 25 it is also down from the 35 uh chance of a recession within the next 12 months that they argued for back during the banking crisis and it is way below the 54 amongst Wall Street Journal economists who are surveyed on the probability of a recession within the next 12 months now what do we have on the second argument here argument number two U.S economic activity remains resilient Q2 GDP growth tracking at 2.3 percent consumer sentiment rebounding sharply from depressed levels unemployment falling back to 3.56 in June initial jobless claims reversing most of their mini spike in jobless claims true those have been pretty stable we do expect some deceleration in the next quarters when it comes to employment because of the slower real disposable income potentially leading to some lower sales interesting especially since we did just get retail sales numbers prior report May report revised up a little June report revised down a little bit but easing Financial conditions easing Financial conditions think about that a rebound in the housing market easing Financial conditions to be lower yields we haven't seen that rebound and housing I've been seeing that and the ongoing boom in Factory building all suggests the U.S will continue to grow albeit at a lower Trend Pace okay it's a good setup so far then they argue that even though we have this student loan headwind ahead of us which is now widely being associated with basically a five percent cut in people's income Goldman Sachs believes the biggest growth drags or really behind us I've personally been arguing that we really lack a lot of negative catalysts ahead of us short of some kind of Black Swan it's very difficult to see big negative catalysts right now unless we have some really bad earnings season but so far that doesn't seem to be the case the 0.16 percent increase in cpix food and energy in June was the lowest since Feb of 2021 follows a string of 0.4 readings but it doesn't mean it's just one month of better news as measures of underlying inflation such as trimmed mean CPI and PCI or pce rather here I am thinking about PCI cards for computers because I'm installing one but anyway now PC has been easing for quite a while moreover there are strong fundamental reasons to expect ongoing disinflation used car prices are sliding on the back of higher Auto production and inventories rent inflation still has a long way to fall before it catches up to the message from median asking rents so that's owner's equivalent rents which is what CPI uses it's like a 34 weight and Market reads of rents big disparity still suggesting you still have a lot of Tailwind to get this inflation down which is great and the labor market continues to rebalance with a slow downtrend in job openings but then also fewer quits which is good and nominal wage growth that's still positive for workers because you're still making money real wage growth just when positive but it is uh you're not growing your wages as quickly as you once were now what about the yield curve because this is the part that I think is so fascinating where you have Goldman Sachs finally and it's been a while I mean I've been trying to explain why it's possible that the yield curve could be inverted and not signal a recession for I feel like a year now anyway uh Goldman Sachs here we go we don't share the widespread concern about yield curve inversion conceptually an inverted yield curve means that rates that the rates Market is pricing in future cuts that are large enough to outweigh term premium which accounts for its usual upward slope in English when the yield curve is inverted markets expect the Federal Reserve to cut rates so quickly and in such a large way that you have higher yields now that are greater than the usual reward you get for committing your money longer usually you commit your money longer you make more money and when you get an inversion it's because the markets for some reason are expecting big cuts now there are two reasons the markets can expect big cuts one recession panic and then you get you know cuts and a steepening yield curve and that tends to be the really painful part it's usually it's not the inversion It's usually the steepening that's the painful part usually and then of course you have uh uh you know this this uh you know potential for disinflation uh to be why we're seeing this but okay let's keep going with what Goldman's argument is okay so reading this properly in the past this has generally this in other words the inverted yield curve right are you ready for this this has generally only happened in situations where a recession was becoming clearly visible okay now this is important because they're arguing that usually you saw a yield curve inversion once it was blatantly obvious that you were going into a recession now that's interesting we'll look at some charts in a moment here that's very very interesting hence the curve strong track record as a recession predictor in other words they're kind of throwing cold water on this indicator saying look it's so good Because by the time a recession is usually obvious that's when the yield curve tends to be inverted when it's already obvious that a little bit feels like cheating honestly but okay let's keep going here so uh but three things are different about the current cycle oof boy we love those words this time is different not really but okay keep going here three things are different let's hear what the three things are first the term premium is well below its long-term average okay in other words the amount of money that you get compensated today for investing your money into treasury bonds longer is already relatively low so you don't get that much of a premium anymore these days uh just for investing your money longer term before covid the premium you'd get between the 10 and the two year like if you look at 2018 with somewhere around 30 to 50 basis points relatively low that was your positive term premium okay second there is a plausible path to Fed easing easing on the back of lower inflation now of course some bears argue this is going to lead to a disaster of uh of basically uh the FED creating you know stimulating again and then what you end up with an oopsie-doopsies inflation again now remember though we already know because we've studied this so much on this channel that what caused inflation during covet was not the fact that we printed money it was how rapidly we printed the money so yes we could return to what we saw between 2010 and 2020 which is where we slowly printed money and didn't have any inflation kind of wild all right in fact both hour and the next fomc's non-recession projections call for more than 200 bips of gradual Cuts over the next two to three years that's two to three percent of cuts over the next two to three years third okay so so two reasons so far we started out with a low term premium we're already pricing in Fed rate Cuts without a recession so you know usually you get an inverted yield curve when you're pricing on rate Cuts because of a recession but we're not seeing a recession yet so the inverted yield curve happened so early and maybe that's a sign that you know with markets are just reacting the fact that the fed's expecting the cup okay third reason if forecasters are overly pessimistic now rate Market investors and thus expectations priced into the yield curve are probably also overly pessimistic so the argument that the inverted yield curve validates the consensus forecast of a recession is circular in other words the more people say the inverted yield curve is going to cause a recession the more people in the bond market start pricing in a recession and then the more economists start pricing in oh my gosh we're probably gonna have a recession in the next 12 months and then you get this sort of reiteration now the yield curve converts even more blah blah blah blah blah right now there are two big two more pieces here from Goldman Sachs but uh Matt Thompson here says declining earnings in commercial real estate are big negative catalysts the problem with this is as we just saw from The Wall Street Journal s p earnings are already expected to fall 8.1 percent per share EPS down 8.1 percent per share year over year you're in the earnings recession yeah what's the stock market doing it's going up why why is it going up because people didn't believe inflation would be transitory now that it's turning out to be somewhat transitory people are slowly getting back in the market in fact a lot of us I guarantee it in some of you watching this feel this way right now a lot of us are like please just give me one more dip I've been missing out let me put more into the market this is normal it's totally normal and when we look back at 2020 everybody was like please let there be a double dip I just want another chance to buy bro and it just kept going up and up and up I'm not saying it's healthy how quickly it's happening but it's it's remarkable that the market is going up when you're already expecting negative EPS of 8.1 percent and net income Falling by 11.4 percent now this other argument Matt Thompson here says is that well what about commercial real estate well so far commercial real estate has done Jack Huda nothing sure there are write Downs for offices loan loss reserves are going up even at Banks like Morgan Stanley for these offices and potentially this office and Retail commercial Crush but I mean we're talking about three four years before we start seeing some of these refinances really roll and at that point is the economy already well beyond who knows now zero phases here says but the S P 500 is overbought uh on the six month chart been overbought for like three years it makes you wonder if it has to do with sort of how rapidly people now get in and out of the stock market who knows uh okay so uh let's get to the next argument from Goldman here ah argument number five check out me Kevin's amazing not only is there a free newsletter you can click on down below but you've got these incredible courses we do fundamental analysis on real estate we do those in our live streams as well we're gonna be doing a lot of those in uh together when we're doing analysis for uh house hack or your own deals uh Property Management do it yourself Property Management rental renovation stocks and psychology money and probably the most popular bundle right now is the triple stocks and psych zero to millionaire real estate and this how to get more done and uh well it's basically where I break down exactly for you hday rather than like trying to learn how to sit here in code or whatever and figure out how you're going to create your AI bot or whatever let's get you caught up to speed and get you productive with AI today that's what this course does along with you know some of the other amazing things s've got bundle up questions so going back to Goldman Sachs right here a 25 basis point hike five and a quarter to five and a half percent at the July meeting is almost certain but we expect it to be the last of this cycle despite some assertions to the contrary for more hawkish participants we don't think that the septembered meeting is truly live both in the June press conference and in his Congressional testimony Powell argued moving carefully or at a careful Pace now since we're closer to our destination the minutes also signaled they probably didn't have a majority uh for for confirming what they're going to do with the next meeting but what's more likely to be live according to Goldman Sachs is the November 1st meeting where you're going to end up with three more CPI reports and four more pce reports lots and lots of data all right then we've got number six most of the G10 Banks uh are still a little bit further from the FED at completing their tightening Cycles now we did just get some great numbers from the Bank of Canada for inflation Thanks Max for pointing those out on the month of a month decline there at headline under three percent uh the Bank of Canada is still widely expected to deliver their final rate to 5.25 they're probably just trying to copy America we expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to deliver one more 25 BP hike uh and uh let's see and another two sir oh in August and then another two later in the year uh no big implications for some changes of the Guard you've got UK is probably going to get to a terminal rate of six percent uh another 100 basis points to go thanks to that Rising core inflation rather than falling and then Goldman Sachs does price in fewer cuts for Canada Europe and the US than markets are looking at for next year which is somewhat negative right but uh that's also bait on the back of a stronger economy so when we look at the inverted yield curve chart wise again this is the inverted yield curve over history and what I'd like to see is when did we actually get this inversion here and here in the.com Era let's compare that so I'm going to get the actual dates for that so the inversion and the yield curve happened first and it looks like it's going to be an 07.
06.06 was your first inversion I I don't know if you could say that uh we were we were convinced uh that a recession was ahead of us by by 07 but okay interesting argument still Goldman Sachs then you've got uh the 2000s era we really saw the inverted yield curve as early as February of 2000. I mean these are these were pretty leading inversions so I think that these the leading-ness of some of these inversions actually potentially gives you a little bit of a counter argument to Goldman here uh in that we had are below zero percent here pretty early when when you had the recessions uh you know certainly later a recession is almost more where they're steepening uh sat so I don't know if that really helps Goldman's argument much but either way I personally do agree with a couple of the arguments they make regarding the inferred yield curve that you've got this Doom Loop of forecasters oh nope definitely recession uh that increases your inverted yield curve but you also have my argument of disinflation and then Goldman's argument of Fed rate Cuts already being priced in a non-recessionary environment so is it possible this time could be different who knows again those are the most dangerous words in investing so you should prepare for no but then on the other hand do you prepare for yes I don't know I don't think this is where you could just look at these data points you have to look at everything holistically stronger retail sales or at least non-native retail sales consumer spending Bank of America suggesting hey people still have higher deposits than they did before the pandemic uh inflation trending down very rapidly earnings not coming in as bad as expected so far fingers crossed it stays like that but uh we'll se
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