저자: TracyRynek · 외국인
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이번 영상은 워런 버핏의 최근 투자 사례(버크셔의 파일럿 플라잉J 지분 인수)를 계기로 가치투자의 세 가지 교훈을 정리하고, 그 원칙에 맞는 저평가 가능 종목 다섯 개를 소개하는 내용이다. 핵심 교훈 1: 지루한 기업이 아름답다. 파일럿 플라잉J는 휴게소 사업만이 아니라 레스토랑(279개 이상, 미국 10위권 프랜차이즈), 연료 유통, 대형 유조선단(미국 4위권), 편의점까지 운영하는 복합 기업이다. 화려한 성장주보다 생활 밀착형 인프라 기업을 열린 마음으로 볼 것을 권한다. 핵심 교훈 2: 이미 수익을 내는 기업을 사라. 세제 개편으로 법인세가 20%로 인하되면 버크셔 계열사에 유리하겠지만, 이미 수익을 내고 성장 중인 기업이 규제 환경 변화에도 더 잘 대응한다는 논리다. 핵심 교훈 3: 경제의 building block 기업을 사라. 철도, 물류처럼 평소 눈에 띄지 않지만 경제를 떠받치는 기업들이 장기적으로 시장을 지배하는 경향이 있다. 소개 종목 (진행자가 제시한 수치 기준): - Parker Hannifin(PH): 시가총액 약 230억 달러, PER 19.5, 배당 1.5%, 올해 이익 11.6%·내년 12% 성장 전망. 100년 역사의 산업 기계·유압 기업. - Air Products(APD): 시가총액 약 300억 달러, PER 22, 배당 2.5%, 올해 이익 17% 감소 후 내년 10% 반등 전망. PBR 3.5. - Casey's General Stores(CASY): 시가총액 약 40억 달러, PER 25(다소 비쌈), 배당 약 1%, 올해 이익 4% 감소 후 내년 12% 반등 전망, PSR 0.6. 미 중서부 소도시 편의점·피자 체인. - Hanes Brands(HBI): 시가총액 약 90억 달러, PER 12(저평가 구간), 배당 2.4%, 올해 이익 7%·내년 8.3% 성장 전망, PSR 1.4, PBR 8.1. 속옷·티셔츠 등 기본 의류. - Ryder System(R): 시가총액 약 45억 달러, PER 19.2, 배당 2.2%, PBR 2.1, PSR 0.6, 올해 이익 18% 감소 후 내년 반등 전망. 북미 대형 트럭 임대·물류 기업. 진행자는 실적 발표(컨퍼런스콜) 이후 가격 조정 시 매수 기회를 노리고, 이익 감소 기업은 감소 원인을 확인할 것을 권했다. 버핏이 파일럿 인수 가격을 공개하지 않아 적정 매수가는 알 수 없다고 언급했다.
다듬은 글
this is the value investor podcast with Tracy rynek all things value all the time welcome back value investors so Warren Buffett was giving interviews again this week due to a big position that Berkshire Hathaway had taken in a company called pilot Flying J they are a Travel Center company you probably have seen them driving around the country and also in Canada actually they have travel centers up there they have about 750 locations with over 27,000 employees so this is a big operation they're the largest Travel Center company and they had about twenty billion in revenue they took a thirty eight point six percent equity stake and over the next six years they basically will build a majority position and own the company outright so they of course had to announce it and go on he went on television just to talk about it and then he ends up talking about a lot of other things including the stock market in general whether or not it's overvalued all that stuff but I'm sure you were thinking when you heard about the steel that you know what Buffett is buying travel centers that's pretty boring because I can guarantee you that if I had told you even in last week's value investor to buy travel Centers of America which is one of their competitors and they are listed on the stock exchange you could have bought travel Centers of America any time you could still buy it right now that you would have said oh Tracy that's so boring why do I want have a high a Travel Center company but with Buffett and Berkshire buying it it's reminded me of some of the lessons that Warren Buffett's always imparts about investing and that these are very important concepts to keep in mind for value investors and long-term investors in general about what to look for in a company and not to overlook certain opportunities because there's things right before your eyes that you might not consider so I'm gonna go over a couple of the lessons I gathered just watching him on the interviews this week talking about this company and then I'm gonna give you five stocks that kind of fit in with this philosophy summer values and some aren't but I'm not sure he got a complete value on this company when he bought it either but I'll get to that a little bit later so the first lesson is boring is beautiful like I was just talking about no one really would have had travel centers on their watch list and I know this because there's very few people following Travel Centers of America on stocked wits and it's not like anyone's writing you know hot-to-trot articles about how you have to go out there and buy the Travel Centers but you know there's always a lot of hype about the next great thing and how you should invest in it and we're all talking about AEI and social media and all of those super hot areas which are hot and growing and interesting but sometimes these so-called boring companies are the real superstars so pilot Flying J for instance isn't just the Travel Center even though that's what they call themselves they also operate restaurants in a lot of those centers so they have over 279 restaurants and that makes them the 10th largest franchise restaurant franchise chain in America and because they also operate the service stations at these centers with gasoline and all of that they operate the fourth largest tanker fleet in the nation as well so there's all these plus they have the convenience stores in there so they're selling a lot of goods so they're basically a retailer on top of it too so when you start to really dig down into what the business is it becomes more than just you know the Travel Center with the bathroom and maybe some showers for the truck drivers it has its hands in a whole bunch of different areas and it dominates this market which as we all know is what Warren Buffett likes so when you start to look at a company from this perspective it definitely gets more interesting and I'm sure many of you after you heard the news of him buying this we're like oh of course that makes total sense that's a Buffett type company but yet most of us wouldn't have seen it that way prior to his announcement so don't rule out a company just because it's not based in Silicon Valley or because it seems boring keep an open mind when you're looking for investing opportunities the second lesson I took from just watching him in interviews this week were to buy companies that are profitable this might seem like a really basic requirement right but I was struck by something he said about the possible tax reform that they're working on in Washington DC and its impacts on Berkshire Hathaway he said Berkshires many businesses were already making profits they're already growing earnings under this current tax plan as good companies will do they will adjust to whatever regulatory and legal climate they're given and still grow the business under those requirements so if the corporate rate is slashed down to 20% from its current level - him - Buffett and Berkshire that's great they will benefit if it gets slashed down but they're already succeeding now so long term investors remember to look for great companies that have already figured out a way to succeed even by dominating competition and by adjusting to the regulatory environment to already be profitable and growing under those conditions because then if you do get something like tax reform that's quite dramatic they're only going to do better under those conditions so keep that in mind as well and then a third lesson is to buy these building block type companies so we all know that Buffett loves to buy companies they kind of operate in the shadows and that are these building blocks of the economy so pilot Flying J is one of those because you probably drove by one dozens hundreds maybe even thousands of times on your travels or even just going to and from work in some cases and never really gave it a second thought because it's always just kind of been there over the last couple decades similarly we know Berkshire owns Burlington Northern Railroad that's also a reason he bought a railroad because again we don't really give it a second thought it's considered the old economy but those railroads are still delivering all the products many things that we're using today including automobiles still get delivered by the rails so he likes to buy these businesses that operate day in and day out without much fanfare but the economy wouldn't really run the same without them and we take it for granted that they're there so keep that in mind too when you're looking out there for companies to invest in that these building block type companies aren't a fly-by-night they're not flashes in the pan they have a long history and they tend to dominate their industries those are just three lessons I've learned from Buffett over the years and just from watching him again this week because these are some of the themes he brought up in his interviews this week with this acquisition announcement so I was thinking what companies fit these lessons today and are any of them value stacks I couldn't really run a screen for this because there is no screening of you know fine Buffett type company screen I wish there was but there really isn't so I just kind of had to tap into my own knowledge of what is a publicly traded company out there what kind of fits into these three lessons and then I look to see are they cheap are they not a couple I did pass by because they were just a little too expensive for me right now but a few of these are on the more expensive side as far as PE but I do have to wonder what Buffett paid for the pilot company because the terms weren't disclosed he likes to get things cheap but in this environment and this hot economy it's doubtful he got it dirt cheap and they weren't desperate to sell either so I would be interested to know but we don't know so keep that in mind too when you are considering buying into a business as an investor you want to get it cheap obviously but sometimes the fundamentals support paying a little bit extra to get into that company so let's jump right into the stacks the first one is Parker Hannifin the ticker is pH they do motion and control type industrial as well as filtration they do hydraulics they have a 23 billion market cap they've been in business a hundred years this is the building block type company their PE right now is 19.5 so it's kind of in general running right along with the market the stock is up big and in September though if you would have gotten it even just a month ago you would have paid a little bit less earnings look good it's supposed to be up 11.6 percent this fiscal year and another 12% next fiscal year that's not that's not awful for a hundred-year-old business here the price of book is four point five so a little bit higher there as well but you do get a dividend paying one point five percent so keep this one in mind our second company is Air Products and chemical this sticker is a PD and it provides atmospheric and process gases to customers in 50 countries yes this is a gas company but not like natural gas these are industrial type gases shares have stalled pretty much and earnings around the decline I didn't dig in to find out why earnings are expected to decline 17% this year and then they're expected to rebound 10% next year the p/e is 22 they have a 30 billion market cap dividend is 2.5 percent so you do get some dividend there for patients and the price to book is three point five so not too awful on the price to book there they were founded in 1940 so they've been around quite a long time as well you kind of see tanks from Air Products when you're driving around the country actually a lot sometimes in you know near manufacturing hubs and stuff so that's another one to keep on your list the third stack is Casey's general stores this is one of the favorites of mine and they owned a chain of convenience stores mostly in small towns in the Midwest I was just in southern Wisconsin for a weekend and I saw several new Casey general stores up there they service mostly in markets and towns that are 5,000 people and under they have the gas station they've the convenience store and they are the fifth largest pizza chain in the United States now because their pizza is really good and in these small towns with only 5,000 people or less you may have no other pizza place to go to so not only is it good but they are providing a service there where nobody else is so I like that aspect of it a lot they have a market cap of 4 billion they're a little more expensive here but they these shares are also up recently their p/e is 25 I keep waiting for it to get cheaper for me to buy it but earning is expected to decline 4% in this fiscal year that's why the shares actually sold off for a little while but rebounding 12% next year dividend about 1% so they do pay you something and even though they got that p/e of 25 they do have a price to sales ratio of just 0.6 so I like that with the price-to-book of 3.6 which isn't too high either so even though they got that higher p/e some of their other fundamentals are valuing their so Casey's general stores CAS why another one that was a favorite until they kind of stumbled recently is Hanes brands hbi is their ticker and yes they make underwear underwear t-shirts sweatshirts fleece and some active wear so they do the real basics of apparel stuff that you know you're gonna need socks you're gonna need it so they sell worldwide and they have a lot of brands you know in addition to Hanes they have champion which does a lot of the sports apparel they do Playtex Balian Maidenform which is on the women's side that's like the bras and the underwear so they were founded in 1901 and they actually own most of the manufacturing facilities worldwide something like 90 percent they have a market cap of 9 billion this is one that actually does have value fundamentals right now they're p/e is 12 so I like that that's low more than the overall market average obviously and under our 15 cutoff their price of sales is 1.4 and they have a much higher price to book of 8.1 but I like that PE they do pay a dividend 2.4 percent you're getting growth but it's not super dynamic growth earnings expected we have 7% this year and 8.3 percent next year but you're getting it pretty cheap at the p/e of 12 so this is one where you have to judge and see if you can get in cheap enough to justify that slightly lower growth but founded in 1901 I'd say it's not too shabby given how long they've been around so Hanes brands kind of an interesting apparel play and these have been beaten up and then their fifth company is on the transport side which Buffett really likes and most of us ignore and it's brighter systems with a capital R is the ticker and they do logistics and transportation including having all those truck rentals that's how most of us know writer it's one of North America's largest fleets of trucks they were founded in 1933 by Jim Ryder actually and they've market cap of 4.5 billion so they're not super big dividend is 2.2 percent they have a p/e of nineteen point two which is kind of in line with the overall market I wouldn't say it's cheap I wouldn't say it's super expensive but they have a priced book of just 2.1 and a price to sales ratio of 0.6 so those two fundamentals are definitely in the value category and the shares have rebounded a little bit again with the overall market here earnings are expected to decline 18 percent this year so I'd have to dig in to see why they suddenly have had this earnings decline but they're expected rebound next year and they're growing sales about 5.5 percent so overall this is kind of hidden areas the trucking side a lot of people follow the railroads including myself but the trucking side is also should do well a hot economy because obviously everybody's transporting things around the country when you have a hot economy so this is another one to keep in mind so let's go over the tickers so that you have the list Parker Hannifin pH Air Products and chemical APD Casey's general stores CAS Y Hanes brands HB I and Reiter systems which is just R and remember you might want to have some patience and kind of see if some of these pull back after the nice rally that they've had cuz then you can get them cheaper they also have earnings coming up so you might want to tune in to find out what's happening especially on a couple of these companies where the earnings are expected to decline this year something is going on there the conference calls are a good place to find out where everything stands so definitely tune into some of those don't just read the transcripts anybody can you know sign on while the conference call is going on and most of the companies put them on their website afterwards so that you can listen to it after and you get a lot of context when you listen to what the actual voices sound like and and how the analysts are actually asking their questions instead of just reading the transcript so definitely tune in to those and I'll be having more podcasts about what's happening during earnings season with the value stocks as we get into this third quarter earnings season in the next couple of weeks so be sure to tune in and if you haven't subscribed it to the value investor podcast you can now do so in its own standalone program on iTunes so go over to Apple podcasts and subscribe to us there or get both of the podcasts both the market edge and the value investor podcast also on iTunes and on soundcloud so until next week I'll see you then
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