저자: Luke · 외국인
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테슬라가 아크인베스트의 주당 7,000달러 목표가처럼 대폭 상승할 수도, 거품일 수도 있다는 양쪽 시각을 비교하고, 어느 쪽이든 수익을 낼 수 있는 보유 관점을 제시한 영상. 아크인베스트(캐시 우드)의 강세 논리: 테슬라는 EV 기술에서 3~5년 앞서 있고, 에너지·소프트웨어·보험 등 비자동차 사업의 잠재력이 크며, EV 보급 확대와 원가 절감으로 고성장이 예상된다는 주장. 이 논리대로면 목표가 7,000달러에 도달 가능하다고 설명. 거품론(진행자 논리): 규제가 자율주행의 가장 큰 장벽이며, 아크의 성장률 가정(EV 보급률 등)은 규제가 우호적인 지역에 기반해 과도하게 낙관적일 수 있음. 매출이 현재 밸류에이션(P/E 약 1,036배)을 최소 1~2년간 정당화하기 어렵고, 애플(P/E 38)·아마존(P/E 127)과 비교해도 극단적으로 비쌈. 대형 자금이 차익실현 후 재진입하면서 거품이 꺼질 수 있다고 봄. 이 경우 주가는 1,000~1,300달러까지 하락 가능성 언급. 결론적 전략: 7,000달러 도달 시 보유자는 큰 수익, 거품 붕괴 시에도 장기 보유자는 매도하지 않으면 손실이 확정되지 않는다는 논리. 예시로 애플이 2018년 고점 대비 약 40% 하락 후 2년 만에 회복·신고점을 든다. 헤지나 옵션은 권장하지 않음. 영상은 개인 의견이며 오락 목적이라고 명시. 전반적으로 테슬라 장기 보유를 전제로 한 낙관적 결론이며, 진행자는 강세/약세 어느 쪽에도 단정적 방향 예측을 하지 않음. 주요 수치: 테슬라 주가 약 2,000달러, P/E 1,036; 애플 P/E 38; 아마존 P/E 127; 비관 시나리오 1,000~1,300달러; 강세 목표 7,000달러(아크), 20,000달러(일부 극단론, 진행자 언급).
다듬은 글
what is going on guys luke here today to examine kathy wood's case for tesla being undervalued and we will examine the other side who say tesla is actually in a bubble and talk about some of the potential landmines in arkhanvest's case for tesla to seven thousand dollars per share but more importantly can you make a ton of money from tesla no matter who is right and no i'm not talking about options or hedging either so let's answer that question and more right now welcome back everyone in this video we will go over the case for tesla to seven thousand dollars per share presented by arc invest we'll also cover the case for tesla being in a bubble and flaws in arkhanvest case and we will discuss how you can profit huge from it no matter which way this goes a bubble or seven thousand dollars per share so regardless of the you know maybe crush i have on kathy i will keep this objective and leave my non-existent love life out of this it has no place in investing and if you agree with that hit that like button as it really does help the channel and let's dive into this the case for tesla to seven thousand dollars presented by kathy wood and arc invest so it's no secret that kathy wood and arkan vest have a really aggressive bull case for tesla but unlike many youtubers out there who you know will remain nameless they actually have put in the work and justified their price targets with actual data and analysis not just the pie in the sky click bait valuation based on flawed logic and analysis like tesla 10x this year and it keeps the same revenue growth next year the stock will 10x next year and be worth 20 000 per share yes because revenue and stock price rise proportionately sorry that is almost as bad as the guy who says tesla's price target is eighty seven dollars per share really dude okay sorry back on topic here i don't want to get bogged down too much into the details of arc invest case as you know we all know it pretty well but answer these questions for me is there any doubt that tesla has the best ev in the market and it's not even close is there any doubt that tesla is at least three to five years ahead at a minimum from everyone else and their lead is growing each year is there another automaker who has so many projects not related to autos like you know solar panels and energy trading and software insurance and all that good stuff that have huge potential for future revenue is there any doubt that tesla is expanding their infrastructure to accommodate massive growth in every part of their business when you add in all these factors it's easy to see explosive growth for tesla coming in the future especially as ev adoption continues they will continue to be more efficient and drive down cost and some of the other lines of business will actually grow so as you can see arc invest has shown a pretty clear path to reach the 7 000 per share price target that they set for tesla so let's go over the case for a bubble and we'll talk about some flaws with arc and vest case now before you get all riled up and run down to the comments let's all try to be objective here put our secret crushes aside for just a second and point out some of the less favorable things in arc and vest case that actually show why tesla could be in a bubble now not everything tesla is doing will be a hit i'm sorry they have had some failures as well and many of ark's projections involve pretty rosy estimates and assumptions the biggest flaw i see in the logic to seven thousand dollars and we have talked about it before on this channel and that is regulation i actually think that's the biggest hurdle to autonomy period i know that isn't part of their case to seven thousand dollars per share but it's worth mentioning considering other assumptions such as ev adoption rates and others are based on growth in states and countries where regulation favors what tesla is doing but those are the easy targets that tesla is taking down getting regulation changed in other areas and seeing those same adoption rates is going to be much harder and will take much longer than arc is suggesting now i'm not saying tesla will not continue to grow or get there but the growth rate may not be as high as arc has predicted so that leads me to revenue tesla does not and will not have the revenue for at least the next year maybe two years to justify its current valuation even with a ridiculously high growth rate it is very hard to see this catching up look at its p e ratio right now it's 1036 and i agree completely comparing it to other automakers p e ratios you know which tend to hover around 14 15 or so is just ridiculous because tesla is so much more so let's take a look at apple i hear the apple comparison all the time who is now trading at all-time highs and considered very rich right now and their p e ratio is 38.
yes 38 versus 1036. well let's look at another stock that is always traded at an overvalued mark per se and many investors never jumped in on it due to its high valuation it just never justified its valuation and that would be amazon and it's currently trading at around all-time highs too but its p e ratio is only 127.
so tesla is literally trading at almost 10 times that of amazon which is trading at all-time highs right now and basing a value on growth that hasn't happened and won't happen for three to five years at a minimum if not more is not normal and may not be sustainable and right now it's only two thousand dollars per share not seven thousand dollars per share looking at it from that perspective it will be incredibly hard for them to have the revenue to even remotely justify the high valuation and four to five years in the arc invest case at seven thousand dollars per share now remember arc invest is the exception on valuations it's not the rule and it would not surprise me to see big money pull out and take some massive profits that are sitting out there and wait for the revenue to catch up some before buying in again and if they do decide the valuation is too rich a bubble popping is exactly what will happen so how can you profit huge from it all no matter what a bubble or tesla to seven thousand dollars per share now remember this is my opinion and for entertainment purposes only do not listen to me now despite the fact that a stock bubble and tesla to seven thousand dollars per share being pretty much polar opposite positions there is a way to play this where you can make huge profits regardless of which way this falls in the end and remember i'm not talking about hedging or options or other strategies like that yes those can be used effectively it's just not how i like to trade and i know a lot of you are new investors and messing with those will get you burned eventually if you do not know what you're doing so let's knock the easy one out of the way first if you own tesla stock right now today or you buy it today tomorrow or anytime soon you stand a profit huge if it runs up to seven thousand dollars per share that is just simple math even for a public school kid like me but if tesla is in a bubble and that bubble burst how do you make money if you aren't shorting the stock or something else like that that is where you need to shift your thinking and your plan and goals for the stock if a bubble pop would destroy you think about where tesla is right now around two thousand dollars per share right i think in a bubble scenario tesla would fall down to somewhere between a thousand and thirteen hundred dollars per share worse case now if there was an accounting scandal or something like that just just bail and run and take whatever you can and get out just look at luck and coffee for an example of what happens there now if tesla is in a bubble and we have a meltdown in the overall market like we had in march i really don't think sub 1000 is out of the question at all but luke i just lost all of my money that is where you were wrong my friend you only lose if you bail out and sell if you are buying tesla because you believe in tesla long term then a bubble or even an overall market crash should have no effect on your stance on the stock and here's why when you bought tesla stock what price did you think it would go to my guess is most you thought you know three thousand five thousand i know some of you even believe in the extreme bull case of twenty thousand but we all had an expectation of the stock being a lot higher than it is right now in the future so has there ever been a stock that over the course of five or ten years had just gone up in a straight line no of course not there will be ups and downs and dare i say bubbles along the way let me give you an example in a recent example when apple hit an all-time high of 225 in 2018 and was the first u.s company to hit one trillion dollars a market cap the bubble popped and not because of a virus or something like that it just popped for apple fell to 140 or you know it lost around 40 percent but look at apple today just two years later it's over five hundred dollars per share it's the first u.s company to true trillion dollars if i could say two trillion dollars of market cap with a way better balance sheet to help line up the valuation and remember this is a very mature apple tesla still has legs to run at a much greater rate than apple does so if you take the appropriate time horizon with tesla and hold it long term and most importantly you don't sell on the right up regardless of whether it's a bump in the road or a big bump in the road there is no way you do not make massive profits in the end regardless of whether the bubble pops or just runs all the way up to seven thousand dollars per share and if you want to work directly with me as i show you how to create a plan set defined goals show you how to analyze a stock and build real wealth check out the first link down in the description where i will teach you my method for all those things and more and show your support for the channel by liking the video and follow me on all my social medias i have so you can watch me epically fail on all those and don't forget to sign up for weeble and get your two free stocks when you deposit a hundred dollars with them but i think it's going to be a crazy next few weeks so make sure you're subscribed what you can do right there so you can get the truth and all the craziness and here are some videos about tesla that'll give you a better feel for tesla and you know quite frankly about my channel thanks
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