저자: 레이달리오 · 한국인
요약 보기
달리오는 연준이 양적긴축 중단·양적완화 재개를 시사하는 것이 자산 버블을 조장한다고 본다. 근거로 S&P500 주식위험프리미엄이 약 0.4%(예상수익률 4.4% vs 10년물 4%)로 거의 없고 밸류에이션이 과열되었으며, 미국 실질성장률 약 2%, 실업률 4.3%로 완전고용에 근접하고, 인플레이션이 3%대로 목표 2%를 웃돈다고 지적한다. 또한 신용스프레드가 역대 최저 수준이라 유동성이 과잉이라고 본다. 이 경우 실질금리 하락으로 성장주·금·물가연동자산이 강세를 보일 수 있으며, 시장 과열 직전 긴축 신호가 나올 때 매도하는 것이 이상적이라고 제시한다.
다듬은 글
This video is about a recent article by Raydal Allio titled "Performance is Fostering a Bubble." Please note that this video is not intended to encourage investment, and you must make your own investment decisions. Ray Dalio often shares his analyses and perspectives on the internet, and he recently created this video to warn that the upcoming Federal Reserve policy could lead to an overheating of the market economy.
In particular, since Ray Dalio explains in this article how assets will change and how everyone will react if the asset market enters a bubble due to the Fed's policies, and also explains when to sell assets, watching the video to the end will likely be helpful regardless of the type of assets you invest in .
Dalio explains economic phenomena through his core framework, the Big Day Cycle. This cycle explains the grand cyclical process of economic growth, bubbles, and recessions, with the increase and decrease of debt within a market economy being the primary cause . To briefly summarize Dali's Big Day Cycle, the entire cycle can be divided into four stages .
In the early stages, debt is low and used for productive investments, healthy growth is achieved, and there is stable inflation. Next, in the legal stages, debt increases faster than income, and asset prices skyrocket due to easy credit . It is also a period when strong economic growth, asset returns, and investor optimism are at their peak, but debt accumulates to unsustainable levels, increasing the vulnerability of the financial system .
Next is the peak stage, where the cost of debt services becomes too high relative to income and reaches a point where the central bank can no longer lower interest rates, leading to a mobility crunch and a crash in asset prices. The next stage is the deleveraging phase, a process aimed at resolving the burden of excessive debt, during which economic activity contracts, the experimental rate increases, and the value of the currency changes.
It can be described as a stage where the debt-to-income ratio decreases, a new equilibrium is reached, and preparations for the next cycle are made . According to Dalio's analysis, the view is that as debt grows faster than income due to the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing policy, it will soon enter a phase where optimism regarding asset returns and investments is maximized .
Before discussing the perspective of the Fed, to briefly summarize the importance of the Fed and quantitative easing, quantitative easing is a policy in which the Fed supplies market liquidity by purchasing assets such as bonds or mortgage-backed securities in the capital market. Conversely, quantitative tightening refers to a policy in which the Federal Reserve actively sells its assets in the market .
These policies can be described as more aggressive monetary policies that control the actual amount of money, moving beyond the existing Fed interest rates, which can be considered the price of money . In a previous video, I also showed how QE and QT affect the cryptocurrency market . If you are interested, please refer to the video above .
Dalio predicts that the announcement suggesting the Fed will halt quantitative tightening and introduce quantitative easing will have a significant impact on capital markets . While Yeon-ju outwardly explains these changes as technical measures to maintain the scale of the banking system, Ray Dalio points out that these policy changes are, in any way, policies designed to supply liquidity to the market .
These policy decisions by the Fed differ sharply from the economic environment in which previous quantitative easing policies were implemented . It is said that in the past, quantitative easing policies were implemented in specific economic situations . These economic environments can be broadly categorized into four main types .
The first was when asset values were declining and were neither undervalued nor overvalued; the second was when the economy was contracting or very weak; the third was when inflation was low or declining; and the fourth was when debt and liquidity problems were severe and credit spreads were wide, indicating tension in the capital markets .
Ray Dalio's argument can be confirmed in the total of four instances in U.S. economic history where quantitative easing policies were implemented . The Ilja Q-in in 2008 and 2010 took place amidst the threat of the financial system's collapse and the crash of the housing and stock markets due to the global financial crisis.
In the second Q-in of 2010 and 2011, there was a market risk that economic growth, which had doubled since the global financial crisis, would stop and enter a recession . The third Q-in was initiated to stabilize the employment market in 2012 and 2014, as the economic situation was entrenched in slow employment growth and low growth.
The 4th Q period began in 2020 and 2022 due to the risk of economic collapse caused by COVID-19, and Q was initiated to prevent this . However, the reason Ray Daly characterizes the Fed's current quantitative easing policy as bubble stimulation is that, unlike the crisis situations in the past when recessionary stimulus was implemented, the current economy has four conflicting conditions.
For this reason, Daly analyzes that the Fed's current expansion of liquidity will strengthen signs of economic overheating and amplify systemic risk, unlike in the past . The first point is that the asset value is overvalued . First of all, major asset values such as the S&P 500 have reached historical highs and are continuing to rise .
A simple example illustrating this is the stock risk premium . The expected winning percentage of the S&P 500 is calculated by dividing the PE by 1, and the current PE of the S&P 500 is around 28 to 30, which is actually higher than the figure Ray Dalio uses. You can obtain the stock risk premium of approximately 0.4% by subtracting the 4% interest rate of 10-year government bonds, which can be considered safe assets, from Ray Dalio's expected return of 4.4% for the S&P 500.
As such, the fact that the reward for the risk stock investors take on compared to bonds is almost non-existent, such as 0.4% and 4%, suggests that the market is filled with excessive optimism and that assets are overvalued . In this situation, providing mobility can lead to an abnormal rise in asset prices, that is, a legal rise.
The second is the relatively alarming economic situation. With the U.S. real growth rate adjusted for inflation at around 2% and the unemployment rate at 4.3%—close to full employment at 3%—it can be said that the situation is different from the past when people worried about an economic recession .
Dallio warns that if Q is implemented when the economy does not require additional stimulus, it is highly likely to artificially overheat demand and further intensify inflation . The third factor is high inflation figures. Inflation is staying in the 3% range, higher than the Fed's target of 2%. Furthermore, it can be said that structural factors, such as deglobalization—economic policies that prioritize domestic interests— and the imposition of tariffs, are continuously exerting upward pressure on costs .
Dalion warns that while the Fed's primary focus is price stability, increasing liquidity in an already high-inflation environment risks amplifying inflationary risks and could lead to a situation where the interest rate hike cycle is restarted. The fourth point is the potential for abundant liquidity and stable credit spreads.
In the past, when quantitative easing was being implemented, money did not circulate due to a credit crunch, resulting in wide credit spreads that represent the interest rate difference between risky and safe assets . However, currently, credit and liquidity are relatively abundant, and credit spreads for risky assets are at all-time lows.
This means that investors currently feel little risk, and indicates that the market is flooded with money, allowing even companies with low credit ratings to raise funds at low interest rates. Ray Dalio argues that supplying additional liquidity through quantitative easing can maximize risk-taking and make debt-based bubbles even larger .
Therefore, Dalio is warning that this quantitative easing will result only in the negative effects of bubble-like stimulus, without the positive effects of recession-like stimulus . This time, let's look at the impact that Raydal Allio believes the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing policy will have .
First, due to increasing liquidity in the market, real interest rates are expected to fall, compressing the already significantly low risk premium of the stock market and lowering real returns . When the real rate of return decreases, the blood of the stock rises, leading to a situation where the stock price becomes more expensive relative to earnings .
In this environment, growth stocks and inflation-hedged assets are expected to show strength, and the value of technology and AI growth stocks, in particular, is expected to increase. In addition, it is said that the value of inflation-hedging assets, such as gold and inflation-linked bonds, will also rise.
It is said that if inflation risks resurface, companies in tangible assets, such as mining and infrastructure, are likely to outperform pure technology stocks . It is said that in this economic environment, strong liquidity growth can be expected to occur, similar to late 1999 or 2010 and 2011 . It is said that eventually, excessive mobility growth will lead to a situation where government market regulation becomes inevitable.
Here, Dalio states that the ideal time to sell these assets is just before the market explodes, when tightening measures sufficient to curb inflation are implemented . In other words, it seems that this can be interpreted as the time when the Fed starts raising interest rates again or stops quantitative easing .
Ultimately, Ray Dalio's prediction seems to be a concern about rising inflation caused by increased liquidity . Generally, it can be said that 5-day prices and labor costs rise before inflation figures increase . In this regard, President Trump demonstrated his commitment to lowering inflation by personally visiting Saudi Arabia and demanding that Canada continue cucumber production as soon as he began his term .
Furthermore, since the war between Russia and Ukraine is more likely to end rather than just begin, it seems unlikely that oil prices will rise for the time being . For the second component, labor costs, it seems we can refer to employment figures . Of course, other factors may have also influenced employment figures, but the emergence of the T shows that the U.S.
unemployment rate is showing a continuous increase as of November 30, 2022 . In particular, the news that it is becoming difficult for developers to find employment—contrary to the situation in the past when a large number of developers were employed— seems to clearly demonstrate that AI is having a deflationary impact on the overall economy.
Of course, trends regarding oil and employment could change, but it seems unlikely that real inflation figures will rise for the time being . In addition, since the amount of the Fed's quantitative easing is not yet certain, it seems we need to continuously monitor these three factors. This video was about Ray Dalio's writing . We will be back with more great content next time.
Comments 0