저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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결론: 피터 쉬프는 2023년 미국 경제와 달러가 붕괴 위기에 놓였으며, 인플레이션은 쉽게 잡히지 않고 금은 유리하고 비트코인은 위험하다고 주장한다. 금융위기 진단: 쉬프는 2023년 3월 은행 위기를 2008년 금융위기의 2편으로 보며 그때보다 더 큰 피해가 날 것이라고 주장한다. 연준이 2002~2005년 금리를 1%로 묶어 주택 거품을 키운 뒤 금리를 약 5%로 올리면서 위기가 왔고, 이후 양적완화와 제로금리로 버텼지만 10년 넘게 저금리와 과도한 통화정책으로 더 큰 신용 거품을 만들었다고 본다. 인플레이션 전망: 7월 헤드라인 CPI는 전년 대비 8.5%로 6월의 9.1%보다 낮아졌다. 바이든 대통령은 전월 대비 0%를 강조했지만, 근원 CPI는 전년 대비 5.9%였다. 쉬프는 실제 물가 부담이 훨씬 심하며 향후 CPI가 9.1%를 넘을 수 있고 인플레이션이 장기간 지속된다고 본다. 시나리오: 연준이 인플레이션을 2%로 되돌리는 데 성공하면 주식·채권이 붕괴하고 정부 디폴트와 지출 삭감을 동반한 통화 재난이 온다고 본다. 연준이 2%에 도달하기 전에 정책을 바꾸면 인플레이션이 다시 오르고, 사람들이 달러에서 도망치게 된다고 주장한다. 1980년대 초 볼커 이전의 고인플레이션 사례도 언급했다. 자산 전망: 달러에는 매우 불리하고, 금에는 매우 유리하다고 본다. 주식은 2002년 최악의 업종이 2023년에도 반복될 것으로 본다. 미국 국가부채 상환 불능을 경고하며 디폴트가 시작되면 2008년보다 훨씬 나쁜 비극이 온다고 주장한다. 비트코인: 가치가 실물 자산이나 현금흐름이 아니라 신규 구매자 유입에만 의존하므로 거품이 터질 수 있다고 본다. 비트코인은 일반 투자자에게 좋은 거래가 아니며 신중해야 한다고 권한다. 반론 언급: 제러미 시겔의 주택가격 하락이 인플레이션 위협이 지나갔다는 신호라는 주장에 대해, 쉬프는 임대료·보험·세금 등 비용이 계속 오를 것이라며 반박한다. 리스크: 연준 정책 실패, 국가부채, 은행권 불안이 핵심 리스크다. 영상은 쉬프의 예측에 동의하는지 시청자에게 질문하며 마무리한다.
다듬은 글
in the midst of a widespread crisis that has already brought down several major Banks and put others in jeopardy Peter Schiff CEO of Europe Pacific Asset Management has likened the current situation to the 2018 financial crisis and called it as a sequel that will be worse than the one that proceeded the 2008 recession well you just arrived at the right time today we are unveiling that truth once again about the global economy at which direction it is heading in 2023 which shifts facts and warnings so without wasting any time let's get right into today's video Shear Force responding to a previous tweet in which he claimed that the Credit Suisse was the casualty of a Swiss Central bank's unfavorable interest rate hikes and that the Swiss would choose the Tamp for greater inflation but he additionally said in an interview which was broadcast on March 22 that inflation would be substantially greater in the U.S in expressing his standpoint the American stock broker stated that the Federal Reserve of the United States triggered another financial crisis and the media is hesitant to refer to this as an economic downturn they kept claiming that there is a banking crisis as Schiff pointed out in his statement that what happened in 2008 was a banking crisis and no one wants to talk about it because they don't want to recall those memories and made comparison to what happened back in 2008 however what's happening now is just like a part two of that where it is more likely to cause much more damage to the economy and Bank Reserves than before he further emphasized that from 2002 through 2005-ish the Federal Reserve held Landing rates at one percent giving birth to adaptable rate mortgages zero dark financing nothing down and the era of cheap money he said that we inflated the housing bubble and many of these real estate loans turned bad when the Federal Reserved ultimately adjusted rates and raised them to roughly five percent resulting in the financial crisis as stated by Chef the government averted the economic downturn with the use of quantitative easing and zero percent rates of interest but now that we've had zero percent inflation rates for over 10 years the Federal Reserve has made far more monetary policy mistakes since the 2008 financial crisis then prior and so it has raised a much bigger credit bubble interestingly a spinball reported on March 20 the financial expert and long-term Bitcoin or BTC critic previously predicted a substantial fall in the value of the US dollar and that it would drive the world to transition from currency to digital Assets in the future but that Bitcoin would not be considered as one of them will the inflation get worse on Wednesday morning the latest Consumer Price Index or CPI numbers were announced year on headlined a CPI comprising food and energy grew by 8.5 percent in July a decrease in the official inflation number from the previous month when prices jumped by 9.1 percent year over year the result of 9.1 percent was a 41 year high on precisely the same day as the CPI data President Joe Biden declared that buyer prices had changed by zero percent month over month he said that the U.S economy had zero percent inflation in the month of July and if that is combined with last week's spectacular job report of 528 000 new jobs created in the previous month and 3.5 layoffs it highlights the type of economy we've been constructing President Biden was referring to the headline CPI AI circulation month over month which remained constant from the prior month of June core CPI which eliminates food and energy climbed 5.9 percent year on year and 0.3 percent month on month but as per shifts worried that is not something that can be considered as relief for the consumers if the official CPI is taken into account then the prices of which Goods which were already high didn't get any higher in the month of July Schiff said that despite the fact that there is a minor decline in reported CPI Schiff claimed that the inflation would be a lot worse he further said that it is more likely to happen in the future that the U.S economy will get a higher inflation figure than 9.1 percent and that the economy is nowhere near done with the inflation problem it will be around for a long time most likely the rest of this era and Beyond now what are the possible outcomes of this Peter Schiff continues to discuss his thoughts on the U.S economy and the federal reserve's efforts to contain inflation he tweeted on Saturday on where the United States economy is heading he mentioned two possible outcomes of this whole situation while describing many the Federal Reserve is successful in restoring inflation to two percent shares bonds and re-elected all collapse resulting in a massive monetary Calamity and severe downturn that includes government defaults and expenditure Cuts moving on to discuss the subsequent end result Schiff said that the Federal Reserve changes course before inflation climbs to 2 percent If the Fed shifts either to avoid a monetary disaster or in the wake of at least one inflation would rise mirroring The Experience following the 2008 monetary crisis instead of working towards the Greenback back everyone will be running away from it this time Schiff also tweeted on Friday that everyone is aware of the high inflation of the 1970s which did not end until volcker became harsh in the early 1980s however for the 10 years from 1982 to 1992 the average annual CPI increase was 4.43 percent the U.S federal reserve didn't bring inflation back down to two percent until after the 2008 financial crisis by frequently tweeting on the status of the U.S financial system Peter Schiff further claimed that because of nearly a decade of inflated Banking and Financial coverage inflation is here to stay and may grow a lot worse despite price increases that is highly adverse for the dollar and extremely favorable for gold while adding that sub negative 2 inflation times are gone furthermore he stated in August that the United States is in the midst of a major monetary catastrophe that will turn into a much bigger disaster when defaults and payments begin rewind of a financial slump in the United States that could be a lot worse than 2008.
shift recently reached an agreement with Puerto Rico's monetary Authority and agreed to dissolve his euro-pacific financial Business Without committing any legal violation Schiff also deferred with Wharton College Finance Professor Jeremy Siegel who expressed his financial perspective on CNBC last week he said that Jeremy is not right in his opinion he claimed that what Jeremy thinks is that dropping real estate prices signaled that the inflation threat has passed that leads to lower asset costs client expenses including those associated with home ownership such as rent mortgage payment insurance taxes utilities and upkeep will continue to rise the stock market's worst performing categories in 2002 will almost certainly repeat as the wars performing categories in 2023.
shift has consistently warned about the impending collapse of the U.S economy and the US dollar in October he issued a warning about the growing national debt that the United States cannot repay The Economist further added that we now have far more debt than we experienced in 2008 so when the defaults kick in it will be a far worse tragedy shift also warned that the federal reserve's present practices will lead to Market collapses a massive monetary crisis and a Severe recession why is Peter Schiff not a big fan of cryptocurrency have you ever considered investing in cryptocurrencies if so then you've noticed that the tremendous increases in value you that several coins have witnessed in recent years Bitcoin is a fantastic example as many believe it will be an eventual autonomous Bank Peter who has worked as an investment counselor and economic expert for years believes this is not true rather what he believes is that bitcoin's true success is dependent on more individuals purchasing it if one holds it they must convince a large number of their friends or co-workers to purchase it since this is the only way for its price to rise Bitcoin is not something like real estate which can be rented out stocks which can be divided or bonds which pay interest it's not a resource in the sense that one can use it to create electricity like oil it's not like gold which can be used to manufacture jewelry carry electricity and be used in a variety of industrial purposes this is exactly why Peter is apprehensive about cryptocurrencies it is not supported by anything other than individuals purchasing it which reduces its worth people will only buy if they knew others would buy as well resulting in a gigantic balloon that can explode at any time with this in consideration it is probably safe to state that Bitcoin is not a good trade for everyone even though it has grown in popularity in recent years it is still a very unpredictable Market in which the price of coins can occasionally go down and also up as a result it's advisable to be cautious with your money and ensure you understand what you're doing before investing in it if things don't go as planned you might wind up jeopardizing all of your money so do you agree with Peter schiff's predictions for 2023 and believe his forecasts will be true or do you think the other way around let us know in the comments below don't forget to like And subscribe to the channel thanks for watching and we'll see you in the next one
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