Stanley Druckenmiller says he bought GE stock

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드러켄밀러는 미·중 무역전쟁 격화와 경기 둔화 우려로 주식 비중을 93%에서 순매도 상태로 낮추고 국채를 대량 매수했으며, 향후 연준 기준금리가 18개월 내 0%까지 내려갈 수 있다고 전망했다. 배경: 트럼프 행정부의 대중 관세 위협(5월 초) 이후 시장이 급락했고, 시장은 9월까지 연준 금리 인하 확률을 60% 이상으로 반영하고 있었다. 유로달러 선물 등 단기금리 선물이 급등하며 금리 하락 기대가 강해졌다. 국채 및 자산 전망: 국채는 덜 매력적이 되었지만 경기가 악화되면 여전히 최선의 선택이며, 금리가 추가로 2%p 이상 하락해 0% 이하가 되면 더 좋다고 봤다. 경기 판단: 경기침체 여부에 대해 명확히 답하지 않았으나 여러 경고 신호를 봤고, 트럼프가 취약한 경제를 다음 선거 전에 망가뜨렸을 수 있다고 우려했다. 과거 2018년 12월 경기 지표가 경고권에 들어섰다고 경고한 바 있다. 정책 관련: 연준이 12월 금리 인상을 하지 말아야 한다고 주장했고, 연준은 이후 금리를 동결했으며 6월 회의에서 인하할 수 있다는 관측이 나온다. 중앙은행의 마이너스 금리와 대규모 완화 정책이 다시 논의되고 있으며, 2009년식 비전통적 정책이 경기침체 시 2년 내 제로금리까지 갈 수 있다고 봤다. 탄핵 관련: 트럼프 탄핵이나 수정헌법 25조 발동은 시간이 너무 오래 걸리고 국가에 큰 혼란을 준다며 비현실적이라고 봤다. 헤지펀드 업계: 대대적인 구조조정이 올 것이라 보며, 수수료를 넘어서는 가치를 내는 펀드 매니저는 5~10명 정도이고, 4,000개 펀드 중 200~300개만 남을 것이라 주장했다. 비트코인: 가치 근거를 이해하지 못해 롱도 숏도 하지 않으며, 보유하지 않겠다는 입장을 유지했다. 출연자 전망 요약: 대규모 주식 매도와 국채 매수, 연준 금리 0% 가능성, 경기 둔화 우려가 핵심 메시지이다.

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01. Druckenmiller dumps all his stocks piles into Treasuries expecting rates to hit zero on Monday the market found a newfound appreciation for Edwards gloomy perspective as September euro dollars sought 14.5 ticks following Bullard comments green-lighting a Fed rate cut the EDM 90 DS at nine has plunged more than doubling in just a few days as low as minus zero point four eight five bits per second today in a move that shot rates traders and left them speechless as the market is now pricing in a 60% chance of two cuts or more by September but it's no longer just Albert who sees a deflationary tsunami flooding over the US the karachi perma bear was joined by billionaire Stan Druckenmiller who said he could see the Fed Funds rate going to zero in the next 18 months if the economy softens and there be recently piled into Treasuries is the US trade war with China escalated when the Trump twig went out I went from 93 percent invested to net Platt and bought a bunch of Treasuries Druckenmiller said monday even quoted by bloomberg referring to the may 5th week from trump which threatened an increase in tariffs on China and which sparked the most vicious bout of trade war related selling yet explaining his decision druk said that it's not because I'm trying to make money I just don't want to play in this environment incidentally for those confused what going from 93% investors of flat mean the answer is he liquidated his entire equity book in an interview by Keith Square Capital Management founder Scott Besson at the Economic Club of New York Druckenmiller went against conventional and Beijing wisdom which believes that Trump will capitulate ahead of the 2020 elections and said that at the moment he doesn't see Trump giving China room for negotiation because the President sees tariffs as a winning strategy for the 2020 election that of course could change if the economy and markets get weaker he said if you can analyze Donald Trump more power to you I've been more wrong footed by this guy and shame on me Druckenmiller summarized these feelings toward Trump at the same time as we noted earlier when we pointed out that several of dollars key warning indicators are flashing an Amber Alert while the former chief strategist for George Soros wouldn't say whether the US is headed for a recession he said he sees many warning signs adding that he was concerned that Trump may have broken a fragile economy going into the next election and assumes he won't be reelected in 2020 looking at other asset classes drunken Lewis said that while Treasuries have become less interesting and with a furious rally in recent days they remained the best game in town if the economy deteriorates and certainly if rates tumble another two percent to zero or below that's not bad either he added as we reminded readers earlier today last December Druckenmiller warned that trading conditions could worsen and that while the indicators he historically used were not read yet they were deep inside amber territory alongside former Fed governor Kevin Walsh truck also urged the Federal Reserve not to raise rates in December and while central bank did not follow his advice that time it has since kept interest rates steady and may cut rates as soon as the June meeting which is suddenly seen as light below courtesy of Bloomberg are some other highlights from the interview of the hedge fund legend whose average returns of 30 percent over three decades speaks for itself no impeachment it would be crazy at this point to try to remove Trump through impeachment or the 25th amendment because it would take too long and the country would go through hell it doesn't make sense major shakeout in the hedge fund industry is coming there's probably five to ten people women and men who are worth more than their fees now he said there are still going to be superstars but we need to get back to maybe 200 or 300 from 4,000 funds staying away from Bitcoin he wouldn't be short or long Bitcoin as he doesn't understand why it's a story value I don't think I'm in the and erful which is what I've been called when I've said I didn't want to own Bitcoin Druckenmiller is parting words were the most memorable responding to a question from the audience if the Fed is going to use negative rates here's what Druckenmiller said they're going to do the works stuff that I thought was brilliant in 2009 and should be used once every 50 years is now being discussed as part of the toolkit even for like a recession I can easily see two years easily going to zero and I would say the odds are very high they would cut 50 to a 100 bits per second in the next year everything I see out of central banks globally is radical policies ahead he's full interview is below thanks for watching this article was originally published on Zero Hedge check the link below to read the full article