Peter Schiff Says Bitcoiners Owe Him!!

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Schiff은 비트코인 고점 논리를 강조한다: 금 대비 비트코인 가격은 2021년 고점보다 약 10% 낮고, 이는 고점 신호일 수 있다. 비트코인은 변동성이 크고 투기적이며, 신규 자금 유입 둔화 시 폰지식 구조가 한계에 봉착한다. 금은 안전자산으로 비트코인과 반대로 움직이는 음의 상관관계를 보이므로 여전히 필요하다. 비트코인이 금 대비 신고가를 갱신하지 못한 점을 근거로 큰 하락 위험을 경고한다.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. I'm here joined, you guys all know him, the legendary Peter Schiff. Peter, thank you so much for joining us. Oh, my pleasure. Thanks for inviting me. Peter, what are you doing at a Bitcoin conference? What are you doing here? I I this is literally what I've been doing for the last 10 years of my life.

02. Yeah. Well, you know, I mean, I I' I've got a little bit to do with Bitcoin. I mean, in fact, I find out, you know, by being here that most of the people here only own Bitcoin because of me. I'm I'm the one that educated them on economics, on sound money, and because they listened to me, they read my books, they ended up buying Bitcoin.

03. Now, that was not my intention, but they ended up doing it anyway. Yeah, absolutely. And no, 100%. And I mean, I think you've had such an influential role in the community by taking uh you know, essentially a a I don't want to say anti- Bitcoin stance, but you've taken a stance like kind of against Bitcoin for gold.

04. By the way, as a Bitcoiner, I'll tell you I'm a big fan of physical gold. Uh even despite being a Bitcoiner, uh I just think Bitcoin's better. Um but you know it have you come around? Have you have you seen like okay you know uh number keeps going up? Uh to give you credit gold's been performing amazing recently.

05. Right. Well I mean gold's done well ever since I first started uh recommending it. It was under $300 an ounce when I began uh you know buying gold for my clients and recommending that they buy gold. Uh so since the very beginning it's outperformed the stock market but you know it hasn't been a straight line.

06. A lot of the gains were from 2001 to 2011. Then gold kind of went sideways up until 2014 really or not I mean 2024. And it was in that environment really where gold was going sideways that Bitcoin really gained a lot of momentum. Uh and people who were getting frustrated with gold who might not have bought gold until after its first move and then it wasn't going anywhere and then they saw what was happening with Bitcoin.

07. uh a lot of people, you know, changed horses and started buying Bitcoin. Uh so gold really started to move uh at the beginning of last year. But I think what's interesting if you look at the peak of Bitcoin in 2021, right? That that peak, gold today or Bitcoin priced in gold is 10% lower now than it was almost four years ago.

08. So, with all of the hype and all of the ETFs and the Bitcoin Treasury companies and the strategic reserve and the Bitcoin president and these massive conferences like we're at now, Bitcoin is actually lower in real terms than it was then. So, I would look at the failure of Bitcoin to really make new highs in terms of gold over that time period could be indicative that it's topped out and that the next big move in Bitcoin is not to move up to a million uh but a big move in the other direction.

09. So I think that there's a lot of risk in Bitcoin. Um there is upside but to me it's not worth it. I don't think you know there's enough. Yes, you know there was big money made in Bitcoin obviously if you got in a long time ago and that was a point I tried to make you know when I spoke yesterday that money is made in Bitcoin by the people who sell it right and their money comes at the expense of the people who buy it.

10. It's a a transfer of wealth. It's a greater fool dynamic. So you have to ask yourself looking around at the grandeur of this event and it is a spectacular conference and I mean I got to hand it to David Bailey you know who uh you know put this together. Most conferences lose money you know that I go to and they're tiny compared to this and he you know he's making a killing.

11. I can't imagine how many of these whale passes he's been able to sell. It's amazing uh uh that what's happening here. But when you look around at this exhibit hall and the expensive booths and all the people around here, to me, this is not now the ground floor of something. You're not like getting in early and you're going to make a killing.

12. You may be the bag holders, right? The greatest fools may be the ones that are here when it comes to the investment dynamic of uh of Bitcoin. So, I think people should be cautious. And again, you know, it reminded me I I tried to make this point, but you know, Natalie kind of didn't let me finish it.

13. But when I came to the uh mortgage bankers conference in 2006 in Vegas, you know, and and you know, that conference was tiny compared to this thing, but there were about 3,000 people there and they had, you know, fancy boos. I think they had tigers and stuff. I mean, they were spending a lot of money, but that was the peak of the real estate bubble and the mortgage bubble.

14. And I was there telling people, you know, hey, this is not going to end the way you think and you better, you know, you better do something. I suggested shorting the subprime market. But I think this is the same dynamic. I mean, people here that are all in on Bitcoin, take some chips off the table. You know, it's a good analogy.

15. We're here in Vegas. You know, bet a little bit on something else. I mean, even if you like Bitcoin better than gold, own some gold anyway, just in case. Diversify, you know, own some foreign stocks, dividend paying stocks, emerging markets, commodities, you know, other assets. You don't have to sell all your Bitcoin.

16. you know, keep some of it and if it does go to a million, well, great. You'll make money on what you kept. But if it goes to 10,000 or a lot lower than that, at least you at least you got something. And you may make money, you may make more money in what you buy uh with, you know, what you cash out of Bitcoin.

17. Even if Bitcoin goes up, other assets could go up more. So, there's a lot of things to unpack there, right? So, and that, by the way, Peter is 100% correct when he says this. Bitcoin has made all-time highs in dollar terms since 2021, but it has not made all-time highs since 2021 if you price it in gold.

18. He's 100% correct about that. That's something that I've been talking about for many, many months now, despite all the hype, right? Another thing that you mentioned as well is 100%. I mean, how the the amount of money that it would take for Bitcoin to 10x from here compared to when the market cap was significant smaller is orders of magnitude, right?

19. Oh, yeah. And you know, and when people were originally buying it, you know, when it was a dollar, you know, like when I first looked at it, it was somewhere around there. When people were buying it, they were throwing, you know, real small amounts of money at it, play money. I mean, people knew it was very risky.

20. They didn't really know what was going to happen. But now, people are putting serious money, put their retirement money into it, stuff like that. So, it it's very different. But when people look back and say, well, it's, you know, how great it's performed, they always go back to the inception when it was nothing.

21. But for a lot of people, you know, most of the people who own Bitcoin, their average price, I'm sure, is north of $50,000. And in fact, even Michael Michael Sailor's average price is $70,000. So, it's not like he's made a lot of money in Bitcoin, his stock has gone up a lot because he got into Bitcoin.

22. But Micro Strategy on Bitcoin itself, he'd probably be about the same if he just bought gold. But the difference is if Micro Strategy had bought $40 billion worth of gold, it could sell it today without moving the market very much. But if it tried to get rid of its Bitcoin, it would crash the market and he would end up selling at a loss.

23. Yeah. So, and and you know, and again, I I respect the you've made very valid points in terms of the the market cap and in terms of Bitcoin not making all-time highs. Um, and I think it's a it's a point where we have to agree to disagree and we shall see how this plays out, right? But I will say that yes, if you're class of 2020, class of 2021, class of 2023, um you know, if you weren't buying Bitcoin below 10,000, I think, yeah, I mean, look, it's the law of big numbers, right?

24. It comes into place. Um, and you need even bigger because when you have the dynamic in order to move the needle now, a lot more people have to, you know, come into this ecosystem. In order for money to get out, new money has to come in. And it's harder and harder to attract. I mean, that's why none of these a pyramid or a Ponzi, they can't go on forever because you run out of that dynamic, right?

25. Because if you know, if it can go on forever, Bernie Maidoff would still be in business, right? But he's not. And and they're illegal for a reason because they they don't work. Yes, they work for some people who get in early, but at the expense of everybody else who gets in late. But but you said you like gold and Bitcoin, but you like Bitcoin better.

26. Why why is Bitcoin better than gold? Because of its physical characteristics. But it doesn't have any physical characteristics. Let me say because of its characteristics. So it's absolute scarcity and it's your ability for you to actually custody in an efficient manner. So if I have millions, billions or trillions of dollars worth of gold, I need to outsource that security to another third party, right?

27. And I need to trust in their ability to custody my gold. Unless you have a giant safe in your house and you have millions of dollars of gold in that safe. Well, for for most people, right, gold is very portable and it's very valuable. So, you know, for for but it's also very heavy after it gets to a certain bit.

28. Well, okay. So, look here. See that this bracelet that I have around my wrist, right? It's not that heavy. There's about $20,000 worth of gold in this bracelet. A lot of people don't even have $20,000. I mean, I'm carrying it on my wrist, right? So, you know, you can put a million dollars worth of gold in a shoe box.

29. So, and and so it's not that, you know, you need a lot of space. Yes. If you're Michael Sailor and you want billions worth of gold, you probably want to have third party custodians. You want to have reputable uh safes that you could keep it, right? You probably or you, you know, you could have your own safes.

30. But what I will say though is try crossing a border with that bracelet on. Well, no one's going to It's jewelry. I mean I I I mean if if that country is in a pickle they will take that off your wrist. If I fly on a commercial airline which I try to avoid but if I do I don't have to declare this this isn't jewelry does it's not even though this is I could memorize $20,000 in my mind.

31. Yeah I can't I'll forget it. No no but that that's the point I'm trying to make. Listen Peter uh great conversation. Thank you so much for joining me. I really appreciate it. Before we leave though, I wanted to finish this point on and I guess you you could tokenize gold, right? Which is something that has been done that I intend to do myself too, but you could tokenize gold and you can leave your gold uh with a with a third party and you can, you know, transact it through the internet through the blockchain much faster, much cheaper than you can with uh with with with Bitcoin.

32. But your other point was that you know exactly how much Bitcoin there is, right? 21 million Bitcoin. But you know to me a bitcoin is just a random bundle of satoshi's. Each bitcoin is 100 million satoshi's. So you're really talking about 2.1 quadrillion satoshi's. So in that sense they're not really scarce.

33. There's lots of satoshi's. Plenty to go around. Well I mean there you don't know how much gold is flying in outer space. You don't know how much gold is in the ground. You can't get it. Well because of the economics of it, right? Even if Bitcoin goes to 10 million, you can't mine more Bitcoin out of the ground, right?

34. But what you can do is create virtually identical cryptocurrencies to Bitcoin that have the same properties as Bitcoin. You can't do that with gold. I can't make another gold. Well, you can't make you can't make another Bitcoin. They've tried that. You can't. No. No. They And they've succeeded. Look at all the other ones.

35. Look at the tens of thousands of tokens that are out there and they've all failed. They haven't failed. They haven't made all-time highs against Bitcoin. I don't know. Solano's done really well recently. It's done. But if you if you price it in Bitcoin, it hasn't made all highs. Well, what about Farcoin?

36. Same thing. I don't know. I mean, they they they ran up. They ran up in the short term, but in the long term, they all trend to zero. Well, they're not at zero yet. A lot of these coins still have, you know, bit what is Bitcoin? Is it about 40 50% of total crypto market cap? I don't know it off the top of my head.

37. I think it's maybe like above 60% right now. Yeah, but it's not 100%. So, there's a lot of other coins out there that people, you know, I think I think people would I think people love to gamble. I think that's really what it is. Yes. And that's Bitcoin is in there because you know the the Bitcoin maxis and probably if I was in this, right, I would be a maxi too.

38. I guess I would have to like, you know, think it's just Bitcoin and everything else is shitcoin. But when you really, you know, drill down to it, there isn't that much difference. Bitcoin has a lot more in common with all these other coins than it has differences. I disagree with you there. I think it's very unique.

39. I think it has the virgin birth. Uh and I think it's the only cryptocurrency that has true decentralization and im immutability. It is it is the most popular. It will probably be the last man standing of the cryptos. I would I would you know say that but I don't think it's superior to gold. You and that's where we disagree.

40. But you know, but just to be just to hedge your bets, own gold because gold, look, gold is a is a safe haven asset store of value. Right now, Bitcoin is a highly volatile speculative asset. I don't I don't disagree with you, which is why I said I'm a fan of not paper gold, but physical gold, like gold bars you can hold in your hand, right?

41. I'm a fan of those, but I'm a bigger fan of Bitcoin. Right. But for today, for the the way it is now, Bitcoin and gold move in opposite directions. There's a negative correlation. So when people want to gamble and they're buying tech stocks, they're buying Bitcoin and they're selling gold. When people are worried, there's a problem, there's a crisis, they're selling tech stocks, they're selling Bitcoin, and they're buying gold.

42. So recognize that even though you think that maybe in the future Bitcoin will be a safe haven the way gold is now, it isn't now. And so to the extent that you want to have some protection, you want to have to take d-risk and have something that's reliable that you can count on in bad times, Bitcoin ain't it.

43. But that's that role is still being performed by gold. And so you need to have gold if you have Bitcoin for now. For now. All right. Well, until it changes. But it hasn't changed. Yeah. Peter. All right. Thank you so much for joining me. Appreciate it. Sure. Thanks for having me on. Need liquidity without having to sell your Bitcoin?

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