Mohamed El-Erian: The Federal Reserve is playing massive catch-up

요약 보기

연준(Fed)이 인플레이션 대응에 크게 뒤처져 있어 급격한 긴축(금리 인상 3회 이상 가능성)이 불가피하다는 진단. 인플레이션 압력: CPI 6.8% 수준, 핵심 PCE 상승 전망, 7%대 가능성까지 언급. 물가 고통은 이미 존재하며 정치·사회 문제로 번지고 있다고 평가. 연준 정책: 연준이 긴축 시점을 잘못 판단할 수 있으며(정책 실수), 시장은 연준이 정확히 대응할 것이라고 가정하고 있으나 그 확률은 높지 않다고 봄. 2022년은 2021년 같은 최고치 랠리 후 훨씬 어려운 정책 환경이 될 것. 채권시장: 연준이 채권을 계속 매입하고 있어 인플레이션 공포가 채권시장에 제대로 반영되지 않음. 1분기 연준 매입 종료 후 진짜 반응이 나올 것. 수익률곡선 평탄화는 긴축 과잉에 따른 수요 둔화 우려를 일부 반영. 신흥국·중국: 밸류에이션만 보면 미국·유럽에서 중국 등 신흥국으로 로테이션하고 싶어지나, 미국이 재채기하면 신흥시장이 감기에 걸린다는 점에서 연준 정책 실수 위험과 중국의 제로 코로나 정책 때문에 미국·유럽 대비 신흥국 선호에 반대. 작년과 재작년에도 이런 주장이 있었으나 맞지 않았다고 지적.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. it's interesting the idea of the fed perhaps having to slam on the brakes to to hasten you know more rate cuts before perhaps the economy is ready for the more the markets are ready for them it cert it sort of assumes that there is a pain threshold for the fed that there's not a new framework that's going to let them be more tolerant of higher levels of inflation than there have been in the past is that something that uh you know you think is open for question so i think the pain is there i think when they look at the cpi is 6.8 when they look at people saying that the core pc is going to go up when they look at the possibility of a seven handle and this has become a political issue as well as an economic social and financial issue the pain is already there so they are having to play massive catch-up and the question is at what point do they lose their nerve i don't know what the answer is i think the marketplace assumes they're gonna get it just right and the fed has been incredibly supportive of markets so the conditioning of the marketplace is to assume that the fed will get it right but economists will tell you that it's not a it is not a dominant probability it this is going to be really tough the fed has exchanged 70 record highs and the third year of double-digit return for the marketplace for a much more difficult 2022 policy outlook does the way the bond market has absorbed this likelihood of not just a higher inflation for longer uh so far anyway but also perhaps three fed rate hikes or more you know in certain scenarios this year does it tell you anything about you know the market's ability to be resilient in the face of this you know we we have a flattening yield curve to some degree but uh we obviously have not seen the kind of inflation panic running through the bond market we have it and that's because the fed continues to buy and we're not going to really see the genuine response of the bond market till the fed stops its purchases and that's going to happen in the first quarter of the year um but you've already had the sense in the bond market of let's keep an eye out for the policy mistake you refer to it as been the flattening of the curve so we have priced in quite a path for interest rate hikes but further out the curve we've also priced in concern about demand so the market the bond market senses it but it's not fully pricing in it yet because the purchases are so dominant right now what are the implications for the rest of the world here um you know if you just look at how markets have behaved obviously asia and and emerging markets generally had a weak 2021 a lot of noise about you know covert restrictions and things like that and supply chain issues europe's done okay uh but what do you what would it mean if the you know if if the fed is going to be kind of leading the way in uh in tightening policy or having less easy policy and that's critical mike because if you look purely at valuation as some people are doing you are very tempted to rotate out of the u.s and europe into emerging markets in china that's what you would do if you evaluation focus however if the fed is in play and if the fed can can end up with a policy error you really don't want to do that because we know that when the us sneezes the emerging world catches call now add on top of that what you mentioned the zero covert policy which is going to be very difficult to maintain in china i myself would not fade the u.s and europe in favor of emerging markets in china because i am worried about the policy error and i'm also worried about what zero covert policy means for economic activity in china but some other people mike are advocating they advocated last year they advocated the year before and it didn't work out in either year