저자: RayDalio · 외국인
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달리오는 부채 확대와 화폐 증발로 달러의 가치 저장 기능이 장기적으로 약화되어 실물자산·대체 자산으로의 분산이 진행될 것이라고 주장한다. 통화 측면: 제로금리 이후 부채와 화폐 발행이 늘면서 통화량이 재화·서비스·금융자산보다 빠르게 늘어 물가와 자산가격이 오르고 화폐 가치가 하락한다고 본다. 현금과 채권은 실질 수익률이 마이너스가 되어 보유 매력이 떨어진다. 달러 지위: 달러는 교환 수단과 가치 저장 수단 역할을 하는데, 누적된 불균형과 재정 지출 구조 때문에 가치 저장 기능이 당분간 효과적이지 않을 것으로 본다. 유로·엔화도 비슷한 문제를 겪는다고 평가한다. 대체 자산: 부동산, 주식, 금, 비트코인 등이 달러 대비 상대적으로 오르는 형태로 자금이 이동할 것이며, 비트코인은 '디지털 금'으로 볼 수 있다고 언급한다. 위안화(디지털 위안 포함)의 사용도 점진적으로 늘 것으로 예상한다. 국내 분열: 부의 격차와 정치적 양극화가 1900년 이후 가장 크며 1930~45년 시기보다도 크다고 주장하고, 포퓰리즘과 민주주의 위협, 내전 유사 갈등 가능성을 경고한다. 2024년 대선에서 어느 쪽도 패배를 인정하지 않을 가능성을 언급한다. 미중 경쟁: 중국이 1인당 소득과 기대수명 등에서 크게 발전했고, 인구와 엔지니어 배출 규모에서 미국을 앞서며, 장기적으로 세계 최대 경제가 될 가능성이 높다고 본다. 기술 분야는 미중 양극 구조가 될 것이라고 평가한다. 리스크: 자산 가격 상승이 통화 가치 하락의 결과일 수 있어 명목 수익을 실질 가치로 착각하지 말아야 하며, 사회적 분열이 정책 불확실성을 키운다. 출연자 전망: 장기(수년 단위) 구조 전망이며 특정 단기 가격 목표는 제시하지 않았다.
다듬은 글
the three things that uh together got me to do this research of the patterns of the last 500 years so i could understand it were um the enormous levels of debt creation and debt monetization when you hit zero interest rates and you can't ease through lowering interest rates so i needed to study the rises and declines of the value of money and currencies in the cycles the second was the internal conflict the risk to democracy the measures that i used show that the largest wealth gaps and political gaps since 1900 in that internal conflict and the third is the rise of a great power to challenge the existing great power um and the existing world order uh the rise of china and challenging that and i learned before that many things that surprised me a lot my life happened uh not in my lifetime but before so i needed to see those cycles and those patterns going back to about 500 so the first one as you're pointing out the large production of debt and debt monetization um is an area that i specialize in and in terms of understanding as a macro global macro investor and that produces what we're seeing in a mechanical way which means that the value of money uh goes down in other words you could look at it very simply that um if the quantity of money and credit which is buying power increases faster than the quantity of goods and services and financial assets that the prices of good services and financial assets will rise the value of money will go down and so we see that happening now we're in the part of the cycle for that in which everybody received a lot of checks and all that money coming in and people's paper net worth then went up because he got more money but and we're not used to inflation but what is happening is then you're in that part of the cycle where there's that inflation pressure in goods services and financial assets and what that has to do is then cause reactions and those reactions are along the lines like people no longer will want to hold cash investments they will not want to hold bond investments because those will start to have a negative real return and as that inflation psychology and that investment psychology changes it changes the movement of money so it worsens the supply demand picture for month for the for money so you see you are seeing the beginning of a supply demand imbalance do you think we've passed the tipping point do you think that the role of the dollar as global reserve cut currency is uh long term fundamentally unsustainable because of debt that's already been taken on the role of the dollar as a storehold of wealth there's two purposes of a currency a medium of exchange and a storehold of wealth and because of the imbalances and the supply demand that is baked in he as we now needed him you know and also take the political issues and the types of spending that are being demanded required i might say um that means that that imbalance will exist and so you are i think for uh the foreseeable future that it will not be an effective storehold of wealth as it is now not an effective soil develop that drives not just to other currencies there are other currencies but other countries are in this type of position too to some extent and so you see europe and japan which have the three old currencies and so on in somewhat similar positions so you see the poor storehold of wealth being reflected in other items going up because you measure them in dollars but it's really the currency is going down so we've entered a period of time in which the question will be what will be the money of the future but what will be the monies of the future increasingly there will be a competition of monies um as a storehold of wealth there'll be competitions for storeholds of wealth now that could be your your real estate it could be your stocks it could be your gold it could be your bitcoin those are the choices but those assets as a whole will um be that you'll see the movement into those you will in other currencies such as china's remmb you will see gradually an increase in the usage of those currencies at the same time but don't just look at it as other currency look at it as other storeholds of wealth and and you would argue that some of the explosion of excitement over bitcoin and cryptocurrencies is just this general desire to move away to diversify away from the dollar for the reasons you're mentioning that's right because a dollar a cash and a bond which is a promise to release receive dollars are being depreciated and that's right so you will see those as digital gold you will see um other currencies you'll see probably china's remmb which um will increasingly be they'll have a digital or mmb and they'll be choices so let's move to the second point and that's just uh the significant and structural divides that we're increasingly seeing inside of democracies and of course mostly in the world's most powerful democracy the united states talk about why this is one of the factors that you consider such a big driver for a changing global order well it started with the populism that became more apparent when donald trump first came in and populism didn't exist much in the developed world and didn't exist in the us and um and i needed to study it populism of the left and populism of the right and what i meant is or what i mean by populism is um the person of the left or the right the leader who will fight for that group in a fight against the other group so history has shown that populism of the populists of the left and populists of the right then begin to gain power under this set of circumstances when there's a large wealth gap and there's the financial part so it became very relevant to me because it changed how the wealth pie was being shifted so for example when donald trump came in tax changes had a big impact on financial markets and as a result uh you could see it you know reverberate and you could also see what was happening between states start to change so i needed to study that conflict and i s and i plotted it both the wealth gaps the income gaps and i plotted uh the political gaps and all of those were the greatest since the 1930 to 45 period in fact greater than that period going back to 1900 and we could see it every day what was happening on january 6th was not a surprise in that this readers of history would see this pattern happen and as we look forward we can see that threat to democracy and the inclination to have a type of civil war occurring for example it's uh entirely possible that neither party will accept losing um on uh the presidential elections in 24 24.
so if that's amazing right because then you lose rule of law you lose the constitution as being you move to a phase where there is power that it is a matter of power and a matter of fighting to win at all costs ray when you um look at the last two years of pandemic and the fact that you know labor rates wages have gone up significantly as a response people talk about the great resignation there's been a significant amount of money that's gone towards redistribution and the rest would you say i mean i understand that that that undermines your first issue of of indebtedness but on the second point do you think this is just a blip or does it have the potential to be a more structural change that could actually improve the levels of inequality and disenfranchisement that you're describing no they go together that's right in other words i do believe that the opportunity gaps the education gaps the um um it's part of this cycle capitalism in its cycles creates great resource allocation empowers people who don't have money they get the money as their good investments and so on and it raises incomes raises living standards and it raises wealth gaps and when it raises the wealth gap it because it's self-perpetuating because people who earn the money earn more money can educate their children better and so on and there are education gaps and so on naturally those gaps widen and occur and they are a problem and so i understand those problems i can see those problems so the need to build infrastructure the need to build better education um or that or and greater equality in education has to by the way also accompany greater productivity if you want to raise living standards so now um we'll get to the most challenging piece of all of this in some ways which is the fact that this is not happening in in a bubble it's happening while another country is on track with a very different political system a very different economic system and going to in all likelihood be the largest economy in the world by the end of the decade of course you and i are talking about china are you someone who looking at a medium to long-term projection would be betting i mean all the things equal let's leave aside that you're an american citizen all the rest just as a capitalist would you be betting more on the chinese system than the american system or even the western system writ large long term at this point well i i i can say the following it's not so simple um i think um if the united states was at its best um it's a hell of a system but they've got us outnumbered you know there are four times more than four times as many chinese as there are americans and so that means if per capita income goes to half what it is in the united states china will be twice as large so china and china is growing at a faster rate than the united states is so most of those things say what you have is a big effective competitor i started to go to china i know china very well over uh since uh 1984 i started to go and when i when i first went there i would bring ten dollar calculators to uh people they never saw anything like that leaders of companies and and government officials and they thought they were miracle devices and now in quantum computing and ai and so on they're competitors since i started going there per capita income has increased by 26 times the life expectancy has increased by 10 years the poverty rate has gone from 88 to less than one percent it's certainly a powerful competitor okay and in that regard and it's and it's a bigger country and bigger means more powerful too so that's a tough competitor and i don't know that we are the united states is is doing its best in terms of being an effective competitor in its various ways in many ways yes but in many ways no because we're also at each other's throats and we have these financial issues and so um at the end of the day it will be just simply a matter of who is most powerful and most powerful will really be primarily determined on how we are with ourselves if labor is no longer as important going forward and increasingly we're looking at technology that would imply that whether you have 1.4 billion or 400 million the big thing that both the americans and the chinese have going for them is that they dominate all the technologies and nobody else does that implies a more bipolar investment pattern no that's right um but when you look at it the chinese are turning about eight times as many uh engineers out as we are the united states the population is bigger it's certainly um a competitor and we certainly have to do everything we can to be strong and that's why when i think about it you know i'm 72 years old and the america that i remember is a different and grew up with is a different america than it exists today in terms of like equal opportunity and the american dream and then and us working in a sense together and doing amazing things like the space program and uh and so on those types of things um i'm not saying we're not doing terrific things the best american universities are the best universities in the world and there's a handful of those but if you take the population as a whole and you look at the educational levels and those types of things we have the problems we're talking about you
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