저자: MarkMobius · 외국인
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시장 기술적 약세 속 외국인 매도 지속, 25,000 지지선 부근. 중동 긴장으로 유가 상승 우려, 미국 달러 약세 영향으로 달러 기준 유가 상승 전망. 중국 부양책으로 신흥국 지수 상승, 인도·대만 선호 및 중국 비중 확대는 지수 편입 때문. 인도 부동산·인프라, 반도체 설계 기업에 관심. 장기적으로 인도 니프티 1년 내 5만 목표.
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in fact let me welcome on board NES mirani as well and try and understand the technical construct of the market right now NES hi afternoon one did didn't quite see this kind of a selloff or the weakness in the market to intensify like this but this late our selling what is that what is that telling you we're down a good 300 points on the index alone so we continue to facee this selling and once the selling started continues and looks like fi are selling Non-Stop and this has been the case for the last four sessions now till the time we don't start um U recovering in a uh meaningful manner till the end of day we would look at this selling as a continuation of uh uh fi selling and reig happening China opens on Tuesday that could be another price point where we actually see a turn for now 24,800 24,750 which was the swing low and the low in September that should be an important support overall the drift is lower but I think we are getting closer to the support points at 25,000 just 200 points away from a major support Europe though has been a lot more stable I must say uh they've slightly moved up higher with the US jobs report in view uh musk of course has fallen about 70% but I can see the ca hold up nearly about half a percent the footsy MIB is up 250 points Dax though is flat but stock 600 also trading with the marginal positive buyas a quick check on the US futures as well pretty flat as of now but but let's see the street is still awaiting the September jobs report uh the markets perhaps would react to that the one of course wherein the you know bull Trend at least in the near term seems to be intact is definitely crude because now that's scaling of around that 7436 to a barrel actually let's put all of this into perspective all the developments around the globe and what does it really imply for India who better than Mark mobus chairman mobus emerging opportunities fund to talk about exactly that Mark hi good afternoon welcome to e now once again uh not quite in the pink of Health Mark unlike the color that you're wearing today uh seems to be the state of World Markets right now I mean it's almost a year now to the uh Israel Hamas conflict and now you've got Iran as the new counterpart how are you assessing firstly the geop politics at play around the world well first of all as you know the oil situation could get very dire because if the Middle East situation escalates and attacks on Iran's oil sources uh take place by uh Israel then you're going to see oil prices moving up generally speaking the unstable situation in the Middle East means that we probably are going to see higher oil prices uh the only way to solve that of course is for the US to drill more and if Trump gets in then of course you could going to see an incredible increase in US Drilling and therefore some relief on the oil uh price but that remains to be seen the other thing that's happening of course is the stimulus package in China is pushing up uh the Chinese market very remarkably and of course that means that the Emerging Markets index is moving up because China represents significant almost 30% of the index when that happens the combination of India and China moving up means that now the Emerging Markets are outperforming the US market so uh China's move is actually going to help India because more and more investors will be forced to buy Emerging Markets index and that means India not only China but India so uh India looks like it's in pretty good shape however with sebbi cracking down on derivatives that's the reason why you're seeing some Rec some back tracking of the Indian market uh I think that will probably continue for a while but it won't be serious lot of talking points and food for thought there mark but let me pick up on the first point you know the fear about oil getting back to 100 we've seen that previously as well and that definitely doesn't spell good news for oil importing countries and economies much like India and China both you think the world world can once again go back to that reset in oil if at all the situation is to escalate and we were to get back to those 100 or even higher levels from right now I think we are going to go up on oil for a number of reasons one the problems of the Middle East but more importantly you must remember uh oil prices are denominated in US Dollars and the US dollar is getting worth less and less as a result of inflation money printing in America here again the us election will mean a lot in this situation if Trump gets in you probably will see a strengthening of dollar and therefore some relief on the US dollar price of oil but other than that I think we're going to see higher oil prices in US dollar terms so so let's talk about what you know you're penciling in when it comes to America and the elections there because it's getting pretty close to call and the event as well is much closer just too months away yes exactly it's uh we're it's all on pins and needles we don't know what's going to happen right good afternoon Mark there a Sher also joining in the conversation and let's sh Focus to what is happening in emerging markets and Emerging Markets is a space that you've always been bullish on but given the fact that over the last uh few weeks we've seen actually the China stimulus Blitz if you could call it uh in China how do you think that that actually Alters the way how you would allocate your funds to the Emerging Markets now well of course ium would be favoring uh India and Taiwan of course Taiwan benefits from upturn in China because there's a lot of trade between Taiwan and China um in fact some people consider of course Taiwan as part of China but that remains to be seen what we're going to see going forward I believe is a big big increase in Chinese prices with some corrections along the way because the Chinese government is determined to see the Chinese market move up therefore they've allocated something like uh$ 30 billion dollar in money for stock markets purchases so that or is well for not only China but also for India because as I said 50% of all money going into Emerging Markets is index money and as the index moves up uh people have to buy not only China but also India exactly the point because you know while uh China may be in a whatever it takes kind of moment and they perhaps this is not it perhaps we will see more measures by way of stimulus uh but that's the fact right because Mark here back home the fear is that money is going to pull out of India move into China but if it's an index allocation it it you know it may be a higher weightage for China but it's not like you can skip India definitely not I mean as I I said uh going forward in our portfolios India will still be much bigger than China of course we continue to look at China we've looked at China even before this upturn but we find that there are more Bargains more opportunities in India at this stage now that can change of course right uh Mark when you talk about uh your investment strategy you've also been of the view that uh it makes sense to keep significant portion of your allocation in cash to be ready to actually deploy uh that when there is a volatility in the markets can you can we now say that this is the time that you should go ahead and allocate or deploy your more cash in the markets given the fact that we are seeing volatile moves across the globe oh definitely there's opportunities all over the place and we've always been trying to be fully invested at all times because you uh the world is Big there's lots of opportunities around even when the General market is down the index may be down but there could be very good opportunities among companies that are not index stocks so Mark let's start off with the shopping list what's it that you're buying when it comes to India because we too have seen a fair amount of EAS off from the top and continue to see so even right now uh what we're doing now is looking more and more at the property stocks and also the infrastructure stocks those are the two that seem to be interesting I can't give you names but those are the sectors that we looking at more closely many believe that you know the allocations whenever they get up for India and if fi participation comes back which it did sporadically the last two months and then again sort of pulled back in the month of October because of the volatile Global movements that private banks that as a segment in India has underperformed and that's looking at as the most attractive bottomup story would you Al allocate some to private banks at all when it comes to India that's one area that we're looking at because the numbers look very attractive uh generally speaking uh we are not excited about Banks not only in India but globally because there's a a degree of uh problems with transparency and knowing what their loan book actually looks like but uh as I said some of these banks in India are beginning to look interesting Mark do you believe that amidst the world markets China as a pool is going to outperform uh as opposed to even India or for that matter us uh that remains to be seen uh China of course has outperformed dramatically in the last few weeks but uh uh we'll probably reach a turning point soon because it's moved up too far too fast so probably see a correction but India will continue its upward rise uh with some corrections along the way Mark you've always been a long-term India bull um we've corrected just a wee bit from the top we're still at 25,000 in the Nifty but uh what are the targets that you're looking at before the year ends U probably 50 or or more who knows not before the year end but by next year okay that's great so that's almost double of where we're sitting at uh but other than you know property and infrastructure Mark you've been a long-term India bull what are the spaces where you think that um not just fresh investment but you would continue to buy more and more on declines well now uh what you're going to see in India is the development of uh the chip industry uh you're going to see a very rapid development of semiconductor production and that means all of the infrastructure and all of the support for the development and design of uh of chips so what we're going to see is many many opportunities to buy these companies these are basically software companies they call them fabulous companies they don't have Fabs they don't have factories but they design and of course these companies are going to be coming up in India more and more Mark last time uh when we had this conversation with you you did mention that you're looking at at the mining sector very closely uh with what's exactly happening in China the way how the metals counters have moved over the last few trading session have you actually uh looked at them more closely and more deeper now the mining sector as yes mining is very very interesting now because you know commodity prices are moving up if you look at Copper has jumped up and a number of other Commodities are looking good besides oil of course uh generally speaking we are not too excited about mining companies companies that actually do the mining but or companies that drill the oil but we're more interested in the companies that Supply the equipment for these industries so in the case of mining would be heavy Contracting equipment in the case of oil the oil servicing Industries these kinds of people because their earnings tend to be more steady longer term so Mark if you had $100 to invest across asset classes and markets how is it that you're going to divide that equities are always the top there's no question about that uh a little in Gold 10% in Gold uh but all the rest in equities uh from time to time of course when we have cash we put them into short-term fixed income but that's not something that we would hold for longer term I want to cont wise division mark on how that 90% is going to be uh distributed across uh world market equities well it' be uh at least 20 30% in India 20 30% in Taiwan uh maybe 10% in China uh 10% in Korea uh then the rest scattered around uh Vietnam Thailand Indonesia Malaysia turkey and a little bit in Brazil how is it marked that us has completely skipped your list what's that again no I was wondering how us is not part of this 90% allocation at all uh well uh us uh is there but it's reflected in these countries so for example there are a lot of stocks listed in the US that are actually uh Indian Chinese U Malaysian whatever stocks had done in ADR form also there's some stocks in the US that have an incredible exposure to Emerging Markets so there will be some of those uh in the portfolio all right then Mark we leave it there and as always you've been a long uh long on India always a big bull on India and Nifty a target of about 50,000 till next year is what you have mentioned uh but uh I I I wanted to understand also your target for sensex then if 50,000 for Nifty by next year year and Target do you have anything for sensex probably a hundred I I've made a prediction in the past as you know and we're not too far from that so we're you're going to probably see much more upside Mark always a pleasure having you on the show thank you so much and do uh ping us when you're uh down in India next yes I look forward to it actually I'll be in India the end of uh this month I think so maybe we can get together oh yeah absolutely we must we'll not leave that opportunity and we'll have our team get in touch with you good uh good speaking with you and look forward to meeting you thank you all the best thanks there comes a time when your heart calls for you to arise plant your feet solid into the ground decide your own limits and then break right through them become something more it's my time to rise
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