저자: BillAckman · 외국인
요약 보기
Ackman의 외식주 투자 이력은 강력한 것으로 평가됩니다. 외식업에서는 "손해를 본 적이 없다"는 평가를 받고 있습니다. 그는 단순하고 예측 가능하며 현금을 창출하는 프랜차이즈 사업을 선호합니다. 논의된 보유 종목은 다음과 같습니다. McDonald's, Wendy's, Burger King/Restaurant Brands, Chipotle(현재 최대 비중, 약 20%), Starbucks(매도 후 Domino's로 교체), Domino's(약 6%)입니다. 포트폴리오 규모는 약 107.6억 달러로 성장했으며, Chipotle과 RBI는 시간이 지나면서 비중을 줄였습니다. 평균 보유 기간은 약 16년입니다.
다듬은 글
hi and welcome back to the food fund where we analyze investing in food stocks if you love food and love buying food stocks beverage stocks and restaurant stocks you will love this channel in this video we will be doing a deep dive on Bill amman's restaurant stock Investments and exploring the portfolio changes of his hedge fund in the most recent quarter if you haven't already please click the like button it is the only way YouTube really knows that you like the content subscribe and click the notific if ation Bell to make sure you catch the latest videos it is free to subscribe and your support really does so much to help grow the food fund YouTube channel so please consider subscribing we have a lot to cover so let's go ahead and Dive Right In cue the logo bill akman is clearly a strong Public Market investor with a net worth of about $4.3 billion he clearly is getting something right over the years he has shown a particular interest in food beverage and restaurant stocks with some of these Investments having turned into huge money makers for Amman let's watch an excerts from a recent interview on why he loves restaurant stocks the beauty of the restaurant business and we've actually our best track record is in restaurants we've never lost money uh we've only made a fortune interestingly investing restaurants a big part of it it's a really simple business and if you you know get your pootle right and you're at 100 stores you know it's not not so hard to Envision getting to 200 stores and then getting to 500 stores right and the key is maintaining the brand image growing intelligently having the right systems uh you know now when you go from 100 stores to 3,500 stores you have to know what you're doing there a lot of complexity right you know if you think about your local restaurant uh you know the family's working in the business they're they're watching the cash register and you can probably open another restaurant you know across town but there very few restaurant operators that own more than a few restaurants and operate them successfully and the and the quick service business is about systems and building a model that uh a stranger who doesn't know the restaurant industry can come in and enter the business and build a successful uh successful franchise acman likes investing in restaurant companies because they tend to be easy to understand businesses and are fairly predictable sentiment is usually positive around restaurants and consumer Trends tend to change very slowly compared with other Industries he also likes that great restaurants are essentially systems that scale very well Bill amman's portfolio reflects his interest in restaurant companies as well as other food and beverage stocks if we look at amman's portfolio starting at the end of 2007 we see that McDonald's held the top position in his portfolio at that time it comprised nearly 40% of his $ 2.44 billion portfolio from that point on Amman would dabble in VAR restaurant food and beverage companies including Wendy's Yum brands McDonald's again and mandes he first entered mes as a second ranked holding in 2010 and it occupied 30% of his portfolio meles would grow to become the number one holding a couple of quarters later in 2012 he sold out of mle and largely abandoned food and restaurant stocks until opening a position in restaurant Brands International at the end of 2014 this position will grow to become his number one holding by 2016 comprising about 22% of his portfolio a few quarters later he opened a small position in Chipotle which was under duress due to food quality issues at the time in the following clip akman describes what drove his Chipotle investment so Chipotle we're back to core purging Square kind of Investments so instead of investing in Chipotle when they're doing extremely well on the stock 730 we wait for an otherwise great company with a great brand to make a mistake and for people to lose confidence in the company and the management the board and that's when we can be most effective and we you know we've been very effective in fast food you know uh first investment in fast food was Wendy's doubled our money uh McDonald's similar kind of uh Burger King at one point Burger King we're still major shareholders it's now called restaurant Brands we made three and a half times our money uh with that company so it's a space we know well it's a simple predictable free cash flow generative uh business uh it's an unlevered company with a strong balance sheet they own all their stores which is very important because they can when you have a problem it's easier to fix it if you control uh the store base and it's the first uh I eat on a regular basis at Chipotle I eat on a less regular basis at the other fast food companies we've invested in so I like the food I think it's healthy I think it's good for America I think they got a sustainable mode around their business and I think the food safety issues they've had uh I think they've addressed properly it's a matter of time before the customer comes back his Chipotle position quickly grew and replaced restaurant Brands International as the number one holding by 2019 we can also get a better understanding of why he loves Chipotle and made it his number one holding in this next clip what's interesting about Chipotle is what they've achieved is difficult right they're not buying frozen hamburgers getting shipped in they're buying fresh you know sustainably sourced ingredients they're preparing food in the store that was a first right the quality of the product of Chipotle is incredible it's the highest quality food you can get for you can get a serious dinner for under2 bucks uh and eat really Health you know healthfully and very high quality ingredients and that's just not available anywhere else and it's very hard to replicate a quarter earlier Amman had started a position in Starbucks his thesis for the investment was very strong as he shared in an interview talk about Starbucks for example so we made an investment in Starbucks a couple years ago not quite a couple years ago and uh what we saw was a simple predictable free cash FL business casual generative business that we could understand and so it met the the first screen you know you think about coffee you know people have their coffee habit Starbucks has built a in our view a very durable franchise they earn very high Returns on you know every store that they build and uh it's a uh it's a habit that people don't like to break and so we had confidence in the durability and you know the benefit of the call it the restaurant business is once you understand the economics of one box and then you have a company that's build you know thousands of boxes over time it becomes more predictable and easier to understand what that business will look like over a very long period of time this holding would go from a 133% position to an 11% position before Amman exited in 2020 he then rolled those earnings into Domino's Pizza as he would explain in this next clip we sold Starbucks which is really an amazing business um largely because it got to a price that was hard to earn the kind of excess returns we like to earn over time you know Kevin Johnson's done an amazing job the team's done an amazing job it's really a great great uh business but the stock just recovered too quickly too fast to to and I think investors will do well with Starbucks but for a very brief moment another restaurant company that we followed very closely over a long period of time dropped dramatically in price for reasons we didn't understand and we were able to swap strabucks for Domino's Pizza oh okay well that's been get as much as we would like but we own a little under 6% of the company eventually Chipotle and restaurant Brands International would go from the number two and three Holdings to the number one and two Holdings respectively in the most recent quarter amman's portfolio has ballooned to 10.76 billion and still has Chipotle as his largest position at 20% after selling nearly 10% of that position restaurant Brands International has dropped a number three and comprises 177% of his portfolio diving and deeper into his individual positions we see that Amman has actually been selling chunks of Chipotle since 2018 though he has maintained the Mexican restaurant at roughly a 14% to 23% position for restaurant Brands International Amman began selling in 2017 reducing his position from 41% to 9% in 20120 however he bought at the bottom of the market in 2020 and seems to have been selling only a little to keep the holding less than 18% of his portfolio it is clear that Amman was content to collect dividends from restaurant Brands International as the company has consistently raised dividends for nearly 10 years so what can we learn from Bill amman's food and restaurant stock moves for one it is clear that Amman recognized the changing consumer trend from food to restaurant spend and sold out of his food Holdings in 2018 leaving only restaurant Investments if we go to market share we can see that the food industry while larger is actually losing market share versus the restaurant industry which is gaining market share as indicated by the red color for market share loses and green for market share gains it is no mistake that over the past 5 years consumers have shifted to spending more of their eating budget at restaurants another lesson from acman is to focus on the longterm Amman prioritizes holding companies for many years and has an average holding period of 16 years long-term holds can help AR raise investment mistakes and good companies and can allow for compounding in great companies I have learned a tremendous amount from Bill amman's Investments and look forward to learning from other food and restaurant super investors as well these portfolio reviews are super insightful for me and I hope you find the same value from videos on this channel many thanks for watching what are your thoughts on bill akman and his food Investment Portfolio over the years please share your thoughts below it is all always great to hear from you please check out some more videos right now and don't forget to put your money where your mouth is
Comments 0