저자: DanIves · 외국인
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테슬라 주가 가치의 상당 부분이 머스크 개인에 묶여 있다고 주장하며, 머스크 보상 패키지와 의결권 통제 문제가 AI·로보틱스 성장 기대와 맞물려 있다고 설명. 머스크가 이탈하거나 지분을 대량 매도하면 주가에 부정적이므로 이사회가 보상안을 신중히 다뤄야 한다는 입장. 과거 Twitter(X) 인수 관련 손실 및 델라웨어 소송 배경도 언급.
다듬은 글
when you think about Tesla so many people and I think even yourself you don't just value it as a car company you value it as all of these additional elements does this mean that Elon Musk has absolute leverage when it comes to telling the board you either get along or I won't go along with anything else and putting that into the Tesla basket look the reality is musk is Tesla Tesla is musk and when you think about the AI robotics the disruptive technology you know that we've talked about in the program that's significant I mean musk is worth probably 60 70% of the value of Tesla when you think about where everything's heading so this is a little game of poker that's going to go on with the board I think It ultimately gets resolved that was sort of the streets View today but but no doubt I mean will it's the last thing you want to see is this sort of high stakes drama played over acttion I don't think I have heard any institution investor really put it like this in the last one or two years that Elon Musk alone is wor worth 60 to 70% of Tesla's valuation I remember Gary black saying maybe about a year ago that if Elon quit Tesla the stock would drw by maybe 10 to 15% but nothing like 50 60 70% I don't think Dan I thinks that if Elon quit that the stock would immediately drop by that much I think that's basically just his Tesla stock valuation I personally think that Ela musk is worth the Tesla lot more when things go badly because Elon can overcome almost any crisis really when you think about it when you look at his track record when things are going well I don't think there's a lot a lot a lot of upside to having Elon there's definitely a lot of upside still but I'm just saying Elon is much more valuable when things go badly well how do you think they should strike the the balance between seeding to him a little bit but at the same time not you know having to engage engaging tens of billions of dollars worth of BuyBacks and potentially to the detriment of investors if we do see for example an economic downturn yeah and I don't think they do necessar in the BuyBacks I think here now clear the comp package being held up because of the lawsuit in Delaware that that's still ongo from 2018 I think what ultimately happen the new comp package will get him up there from a you know from a percent probably to 18 20% with incentives but then there's also thoughts are there going to be new structures in terms of almost an AI unit within Tesla where musk maybe has more ownership of that and then Tesla as a company has ownership of that because the reality is is that five years from now I think Tesla looks a lot different in terms of Robotics Optimus and AI that's going to be I could argue you have a stock that could double you know over the next four or five years as FSD and AI ultimately play out and that's and I think must recogn izes that as well took the actual value if we basically have a FD soled and investors think that there's going to be material changes to Tesla's business because the bot will make a lot of money for Tesla I think just a doubling would be way too little I think there would be a lot more of an increase in Tesla's valuation then he's in the position that he's in right now because he sold down his stock because he was trying to fund a number of different things X is obviously the one that stands out the most should the board then be asking for some kind of guarantee from Elon Musk that you know if this is the the sticking point this 25% that he's barred from or he has to put it in Lockup in escrow that that 25% stake so he never goes below or or something to that effect because you know the big complaint about Investors is when he sells down the stock Tesla gets absolutely beaten down well and that's the frustration I mean if you look at Hy he had 22% before the Twitter X purchase so here it's like okay you purchased for 44 billion an asset it's probably worth 5 to 10 billion today and now the board should give you more money and that's the frustration right and and I heard it from investors you over the last 24 hours but then it comes down to the biggest asset for Tesla is musk if musk ultimately took AI outside of Tesla that would change the dynamic of the Tesla story and I think the board recognizes that which is this is going to be a little sort of old western standoff happening between musk and the board once the Delaware coure clears occasionally Dan Stakes are in line with the Market's emotions but here I don't see really any emotion coming from him he does recognize that it's extremely important to have Elon work at Tesla and I think that's the best way to really think about it oh Elon is so rich why make him even richer well if he cannot control 25% of Tesla then he cannot control or influence the developments of Tesla's AI he may not want to have much to do with it and therefore Tesla would lose a lot in terms of future product development I think whatever your opinion is on this subject you need to slow down a little bit relax for a moment really think it through I don't see the world as a fair place so I never use arguments like oh it's unfair therefore now I am not going to do as well my first reaction is always what can I do about this interestingly I started making a lot more money when I changed my thinking from oh everything is so unfair I'm so unfortunate to okay well it is what it is how can I deal with this would you want Elon to leave Tesla and by the way if he leaves Tesla likely he would sell a lot of his stock with within the next few years perhaps and that would certainly lower Tesla's stock price whereas if he stays at Tesla in the long term he will still sell Tesla stock but it won't be huge chunks most likely all at once it will be a trickle a slow trickle which will still influence Tesla stock price a little bit but I don't think the effect would be as much because if Elon sells a lot of Tesla stock at once that creates this negative domino effect where short sellers will be thinking oh El is selling Tesla stock therefore Tesla stock will go down therefore we should sell we should short Tesla stock and then some medium to short Tesla stock investors even if they think the company's going to do okay they don't really care about that they just think oh well Tesla stock is going to go down so I might as well sell now and that further makes Tesla stock go down so the situation is not exactly super simple here and if Elon sold Tesla stock like that this wouldn't be just a shortterm thing that's going on no this would be impacting Tesla's valuation because that would mean Elon is no longer as committed as he was before so think about that before deciding whether you want Elon to have a new compensation package or not why did musk choose this time to express himself or has this been a longstanding issue look this is just another head scratcher in terms of this comes out the blue onx over the weekend in typical must fashion now and there has been some growing frustration because of the comp package but then you go back 2018 the reason he's the richest person in the world is because of that comp package but I think a lot of this has to do with AI I mean even what H what happened with Alman and and as it all played out from an AI perspective mus does want more control from an AI perspective within Tesla I think that's why the voting control is so important but this is going to have to play out you also need to ultimately appease investors that that sort of play here you know as this issue really starts become a hot button one within Tesla Community being a Tesla stock investor is sure never boring this is like a new Tesla stock season and is likely going to be just as dramatic as the last two years YouTube is not able to resolve the issues with the AL Clips Channel immediately it will probably take at least a few weeks so I will probably just upload all of the clips to this channel only so if you are not subscribed but you want to see the clips go ahead and click on the link in the description and subscribe to this new channel and if you haven't seen the whole discussion about Ela musk sort of wanting to not quite leave Tesla but sort of because he said he would take uh future AI products outside of Tesla watch this clip it summarizes the whole thing
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