저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
버핏 인용 및 레버리지 ETF 설명 영상으로, 특정 자산의 1~3개월 가격 방향을 예측하는 발언은 없음. 버핏 관련 내용: 장기 저금리가 이어질 경우 30년 채권보다 주식이 매우 싸 보이며, 10년 투자 시 10년물 채권보다 S&P 500 보유를 선호한다고 함. 과거 연말 버크셔가 현금을 쌓은 것은 대형 인수 후보 때문이었다고 설명하며, 주식은 여전히 매력적이지만 시장이 계속 오르고 있어 매수가 어렵다는 취지. 레버리지 ETF 관련 내용: 레버리지 ETF는 수익을 몇 배로 키울 수 있지만 손실도 같은 비율로 확대된다고 설명. 과거 변동성 ETF UVXY에 투자해 약 18% 수익을 냈으나 이후 그 수익의 거의 두 배를 잃었던 경험을 언급. 진행자는 초보 투자자에게 레버리지 ETF를 추천하지 않는다는 개인 의견을 밝히며, 반도체 섹터 하락을 예상할 경우 인버스 레버리지 ETF를 활용할 수 있다는 예시를 들었으나 이는 가격 예측이 아닌 예시임. 전반적으로 신중하게 접근할 것을 강조. 특정 종목·지수에 대한 1~3개월 방향 예측 발언은 확인되지 않음.
다듬은 글
if you tell me that three percent long bonds will prevail over the next 30 years stocks are incredibly cheap okay because even you know i mentioned that kraft heinz earned 6 billion on 7 billion in tangible assets even if you pay 70 billion and you earn 6 billion on it that's better than having 70 billion out in 3 governments interest rates cover and everything and and if there were a way to short 30-year bonds and and own the s p for 30 years i would i would give you enormous odds that the s p is going to be 30-year bonds now we've had this period of extended long-term low rates not only here but around the world and now it looks like we're not going to jack them up very fast so we may be in a new world the world that japan entered back in 1990 and if so stocks will when we look back on it will look very cheap but you know this has not been the history of the united states to have these continued low interest rates so uh i there's no if i if i had a choice today for a 10-year purchase of a 10-year bond that whatever it is or 10 years or buying the s p 500 and holding it for 10 years i'd buy the s p in a second well that brings us to a question that a viewer wrote in this is t-67 uh pierce pant says from the annual report in the 13f it looks like berkshire was the least active in the public markets in the quarter when the stocks were the cheapest you also did fewer buybacks in the fourth quarter when berkshire was cheaper was taking the foot off the gas in the fourth quarter a conscious decision and based on what you just said we got all these signs that that looked like the fed was not going to be raising rates in the fourth quarter too so why wasn't that a buy signal for you well i thought stocks were buy in the fourth quarter just like they did in the third and second and first quarter but sometimes we have other things in mind too that may use a lot of money and sometimes they work out and sometimes they don't but but what does that mean you were holding your cash in case a deal came through we had at least one deal possibly women very large and uh so uh we i liked stocks in the fourth quarter but uh uh i like i would like buying a business even better is that and incidentally i i did say in the annual report that we expect to be buyers that buyers of stocks and this year we have not been that buyers i should point out i mean the market's gone pretty much straight up uh i still think stocks are more attractive but i have trouble buying it one every day it's up okay guys let's talk about leveraged etfs that's leverage exchange traded funds okay so folks have said that it's possible you you know level up your return so for example rather than getting 10 you can invest in a leveraged etf and get 30 you can triple your return literally all right and that's a statement of fact if you invest in the s p 500 and you get two percent and you invest in an etf like tqqq all right you could get like you know six percent that's three times whatever you get on the ordinary index similarly if you want to streamline yourself to financial services if you invest in the fas etf you could get like triple the return or thereabout of what you could get investing in just a regular etf but the problem is this guys the same way you could magnify your gains you could also magnify your losses and it's usually very steep so this video is just to give you a sense check in in case you're thinking of going into leveraged etfs for the benefits you also need to be aware of the negatives i invested once in the volatility etf uvxy and i made some good money um i made quite some huge gains because it popped up like 18 and i was very happy and so that made me invest much more in that and guess what happened you go check the charts of uvxy all right i lost nearly double the gain i made on that particular you know fund etf now i'm not saying that they're not experts that can maneuver their way around this of course you have the people that can always make their way around it you know they know when to jump in they know when to jump out but the truth is this guys if you're an investor you want to have your peace of mind you want to sleep well at night you want to just focus on you know the movie when you're watching the movies and not calculate you know what's going on while you're watching the movies you want to just play with your kids without thinking hey what's going to happen to our family finance you want to be very careful with leveraged etfs can you make money with them absolutely have i made money with them yes i have will i recommend them to beginner investors or investors starting out not necessarily by the way these are personal opinions i'm in no position to recommend anything to you but i'm just saying be careful guys and one last thing if i drop off this very quick video if you have the conviction that a certain sector is going to pull back for example if i feel that the semiconductor sector is going to pull back then i could invest in an inverse leverage etf in that sector to make money while the stocks in that sector goes down but then again guys i'm just giving examples right here on ways you can use these etfs but be careful guys do not jump into leverage etfs because you see video saying hey magnify your return hey this and that when they gain they tell you when they lose they don't so be careful it's your money it's your decision it's your finances it's your future so that's about all i got for you in this very quick video as always special thanks to all my subscribers and you my viewers are yet to subscribe thank you so much and hopefully i'll see y'all again in the next video
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