저자: 짐로저스 · 한국인
요약 보기
로저스는 북한 개방·통일 시 한반도 인프라(철도·항만)와 농업 등에서 큰 기회가 생기며 한국 경제 전망이 밝다고 본다. 투자는 직접 체험한 변화의 신호에 근거해야 하며 인내가 핵심이라고 강조한다. 미국 주식시장은 소수 종목 쏠림으로 1~2년 내 경제 문제 가능성을 경고하고, 시장 위기를 대량 매수 기회로 본다. 일본 장기투자에는 부정적이었고 중국 제조업 굴기와 화웨이 5G 패권을 미·중 무역전쟁의 배경으로 짚는다. 과거 발언 위주이며 특정 종목의 단기 가격 예측은 없다.
다듬은 글
World-renowned investor Gene Rogers, in his book "Investment Scenario for the Korean Peninsula in the Next Five Years ," states that investing should be based solely on the signs of change you've personally witnessed, not on what others say . In today's video, we'll explore Jim Rogers' vision for the future of the Korean Peninsula, the opportunities brought about by North Korea's opening and unification, and the investment principles we must remember.
One of my investment principles is never to invest in anything you don't understand. Focus solely on the signs of change you've observed and the information you already know . The best way to determine whether an investment is worthwhile is to witness it with your own eyes, gather firsthand information, and repeatedly question and examine the merits of the investment.
Investing requires trusting your own judgment, not anyone else's . That's why I can't and don't want to give a hasty answer whenever people ask about a specific stock . Instead of giving people the answers they want, I tell them to consider their investment decisions as having only 25 opportunities in their lifetime.
Patience is crucial when the market becomes more challenging. Through my own experiences of failure, I've learned the virtues necessary for discerning the right time . Studying and researching the market is fundamental. What's truly essential is patience. Want to know when to start a business? You need to patiently and silently observe market trends and identify any changes taking place .
Without this process, you won't have the ability or skill to identify upside in the market or a stock . Only investors with the patience to persevere until they identify the right moment can discern the right timing. I emphasize the importance of education and study more than anyone else, but I don't believe academic background matters much .
Unlike in the past, the internet has made it possible to lower the barriers to education and provide the best education to more people . What I want to emphasize is the importance of a learning attitude. By studying the past and accumulating knowledge, you won't be afraid of every moment of change, but rather understand the trends and what you should do.
I learned the principles of the world through history, and philosophy taught me how to think and question. I've always used this habit of questioning to make timely investment decisions, and I continue to do so today. Just as I enjoyed traveling the world, personally researching and investigating potential investment opportunities, you, the reader of this book, must find something you enjoy and excel at.
The reason I chose Wall Street was because it paid me for doing what I was good at. If you're interested in gardening, become a gardener and make money doing what you love. Even if you're just a small gardener right now, if you demonstrate a talent for something you enjoy and excel at, people will notice you firsthand.
As you gain recognition, people will come to you from far and wide to pay you handsomely. As this number of people hire you and your reputation grows, you'll soon become a professional gardener— a true unrivaled expert in gardening. Then, while you're busy working, your money will be piling up. The same goes for investing.
You should invest in areas you know well and can make wise decisions about . Don't be swayed by the sweet talk of others; invest in areas where you have extensive firsthand experience to achieve success. Even if you fail, your own experience provides the background knowledge to analyze the underlying causes .
If you haven't yet discovered your passion, reflect on your current lifestyle. What TV programs or media do you watch most often ? What news do you frequently watch? What are your hobbies? Honestly, if North Korea weren't a factor, I wouldn't invest in South Korea . Isn't South Korea facing a number of problems, including rapidly increasing debt, an aging population, and a declining birth rate?
I believe the debt and low birth rate, which are obstacles to the South Korean economy, can be resolved if a consensus is reached . North Korea is virtually debt-free, so if it opens up or unifies, the overall debt situation on the Korean Peninsula will decline sharply . However , we should be mindful of the sharp increase in debt in China, a major trading partner .
If North Korea opens up, South Korea could benefit from a dramatic increase in jobs through the construction of railways and ports. Furthermore, the development of transportation infrastructure extending to China, Russia, and London will further enhance its global connectivity . While South Korea has not previously been recognized as a tourist destination compared to China, Japan, and Southeast Asia, the construction of a continental railway and new port facilities will further solidify its position as a global tourist destination.
Beyond the development of transportation infrastructure, there are still other ways to leverage North Korea to boost the economy . This is precisely the agricultural sector. Given North Korea's current low production levels, if South Korea leverages its technological prowess, agriculture could become a new driving force for the South Korean economy .
Indeed, during his first visit to South Korea in October 2007, Buffett revealed that in 2003, most of his personal portfolio was comprised of South Korean companies. He explained that in 2003, many companies in the South Korean stock market had price-to-earnings ratios of only 3 to 4. He and Berkshire Hathaway selected undervalued stocks such as POSCO, Kia Motors, Hyundai Steel, and Shinyoung Securities.
Their stock prices subsequently rose, and he sold all but POSCO. North Korea likely possesses companies that were wealthier than South Korea in the 1970s. While the communist system has destroyed everything, they possess the potential to grow and succeed again with integrity. Furthermore, the DNA of North and South Korea is the same.
Given South Korea's economic growth curve and track record, one can anticipate a future with a population of 80 million after unification. As a 2009 Goldman Sachs report suggested, an economically integrated Korean Peninsula is highly likely to surpass Japan's GDP and become the world's second-largest economy .
Even in 2019, Google and Apple stocks are rising relentlessly. However, this is a very dangerous sign. Only a few stocks are rising day after day, leading to a surge in market capitalization. This is the current state of the US stock market. If this continues, economic problems will arise within a year at the earliest, or two at the latest.
I intend to adhere to my investment approach, which views market troubles as a prime time to buy large amounts of stocks . As economist Peter Peter once said, capitalism can never be static or unchanging, and indeed, it never will be. Furthermore, as he argued , the dynamism of capitalism stems from the technological innovation of entrepreneurs, which brings about creative destruction.
In the capitalist world, the old is replaced by the new. I have generally considered investing in Japanese stocks in the medium to long term . Long before Japan experienced its second lost decade, I believed Japan should not be considered a long-term investment. The reason for the decline lies in the fact that the Japanese government, through its central bank, rescued people during the stock market bubble and real estate market volatility of the 1990s.
In such a situation, the government should have been quick to inject public funds and boldly implement structural reforms to eliminate bad debts . To understand why the United States initiated the trade war, China has achieved domestic production of components and materials for ten cutting-edge industries.
China has established its Made in China 2025 strategy, aiming to become a manufacturing powerhouse. It aims to increase the domestic production rate to 40% by 2020 and 70% by 2025, surpassing Korea by 2025, Germany and Japan by 2035, and the United States by 2045. The United States, the global hegemon known for its unstoppable rise to power, has begun to counter China's relentless rise .
Meanwhile, Huawei, with its high quality and price-to-performance ratio, has become the leading 5G equipment provider. If Huawei dominates 5G technology, it will not stop at securing hegemony in the communications sector. Oji is a technology crucial to national security, and it will undoubtedly drive innovation across all sectors, including smart factories, the Internet of Things, and autonomous driving .
The United States fears China's technological hegemony, which will lead and dominate the future 5G era. Rogers advises: "In challenging markets, patience is everything." Ultimately, investing depends on your own insight and patience, not on what others say. How are you preparing for the changes ahead?
I hope today's insight will help you on your investment journey. Please like, subscribe, and share your thoughts in the comments.
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