저자: JeffreyGundlach · 외국인
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Fed가 당분간 금리를 동결하는 추세가 자리 잡았다는 판단이 핵심이다. 이번 회의에서 Fed는 'careful(신중)'이라는 단어를 여러 번 썼고 이는 금리 인상 종료를 시사한다고 해석된다. 금리 흐름: 최근 4번 중 4번 동결(5번 중 4번)이라는 추세가 있으며, 11월 1일 이후 채권 랠리가 시작되어 10년물 금리가 100bp 하락했고 장기채는 두 자릿수 수익률을 기록했다. 채권 시장: 11월 투자등급 채권 시장은 4.5% 이상 상승해 1980년대 이후 최고 수준의 월간 성과를 보였다. 당시 금리 출발점(약 5%)이 더 낮아 같은 기간 더 큰 bp 변동이 필요했다는 점을 언급했다. 인플레이션 전망: 기대만큼 빠르게 둔화 중이며, 근원 CPI에서 주거비를 제외하면 2%대다. 자가주거비(OER)가 2024년 중 약 400bp 하락할 것으로 보고 있고, 이는 CPI의 약 30%를 차지하므로 헤드라인 CPI 전년비는 1개월 더 3%대를 유지한 뒤 6월에는 2.4%까지 내려갈 수 있다고 전망했다. 정책 전망: 파월 의장이 인플레이션이 2%에 도달하기를 기다리지 않고 금리 인하를 원하는 것 같다고 해석했다. 과거 인플레이션 상승 모멘텀을 과소평가했던 교훈으로 하락 모멘텀을 존중한다는 것이다. 리스크 및 조건: 전망의 전제는 OER 하락과 CPI 모델이며, 물가가 예상보다 더디게 떨어질 경우 인하 시점이 늦어질 수 있다. 출연자 전망: 금리 하락 및 채권 강세 지속, Fed의 인하 가능성을 기본 시나리오로 제시했다.
다듬은 글
a new record high was trading above 37,000 for the first time ever stocks are higher and sharply so across the board yields they're going in the opposite direction they are falling and they are falling sharply look at the 10-year note yield 404 just an extraordinary uh bit of events there in Washington the Fed chair saying they're proceeding carefully they're seeing what they've wanted to see in terms of inflation coming down he mentioned their own estimates of dce continuing to move closer towards Target stocks up a little more on that he said the FED is quote likely at or near the peak rate for this cycle stocks up a little more on that Bob pazani calling what happened today about his gold El loocks as it gets our own Steve lean who's going to join us momentarily suggesting quote the FED took a step towards the market rather than the other way around joining me now is double line capitals Jeffrey gunlock he's with us exclusively as he always is once the FED share finishes Jeffrey welcome back for our final visit of the year I'm glad you're with us today yeah we made it all the way to December judge uh interesting times y That's for certain I mentioned what Pani and Leeman have called it what would you call today well was pretty doish I mean the word of the day is any last meeting the word was careful he said that multiple times last meeting Market liked that because it respected the fact the curves inverted and economy is slowing down but that any word didn't have to be inserted and it strongly suggests that the FED inserted that because they believe I think that they're done and not only are they done what a lot of people don't realize is the Fed has uh been been on hold for four of the last five meetings so it's it's a it's a trend and uh we talked last meeting November 1st that we were had started a bond rally that day and what a rally it's turned into it's turned into quite a good 6 weeks with the 10year treasury yield down 100 basis points uh and the the long Bond you know up in the double digits so he had a November to remember one of my clients said in a meeting I did with him yesterday with one of the best months ever for the investment grade bond market up over 4 and a half% in the month of November alone that hasn't happened since the 80s which is really something because last time it happened you were starting with yields up at 10% is and here you were starting with yields at 5ish so half the yield so you needed an even bigger basis point move in rates so uh I thought the most interesting thing in the press conference came near the end where if I heard it right I think Jay Powell said that he wants to cut rates before we get to two if I heard him right and uh because he's respecting the momentum that inflation uh can have just like I criticized him two years ago for going too slow slly and uh inflation overshot by 500 basis points above where they thought it was going to 4% or so it peaked out in the CPI at 9 and now it's coming down just as fast and I heard a lot of people before uh the announcement were talking about you know you can you can take three-month pce you can take it look at core this and that uh one month data and everything there's ways to get to 2% sort of numbers and I'll just add one that I didn't hear today that's uh core CP ex shelter which is at 2% and the reason I bring that up is shelter is a a bad construct it's owner equivalent rent and it lags and it appears to our research that that owner's equivalent rent is going to come down by at least 400 basis points over the course of 2024 and since that's about 30% of CPI kind of there you go so our CPI model suggests that we're only going to get one more month of a three handle CPI year-over-year and that it's quite possible at this point that the headline CPI could be 2.4 in June and if that's the case I think the FED Cuts rates because I heard J Powell I think say that you know we can't wait until inflation's at two because he respects the momentum on the downside because he learned a little bit of a lesson about the momentum on the upside
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