저자: WarrenBuffett · 외국인
요약 보기
버핏은 금을 생산성 없는 자산으로 규정하며, 금 전체(약 7조 달러)로 미국 주식 약 1/3 또는 미국 농지 전체를 살 수 있다는 비교로 금 투자의 비효율을 강조한다. 금은 100년간 보유해도 아무 수익을 내지 못하는 반면, 농지는 매년 작물 수익을 내고 100년 뒤에도 토지가 남아 있어 장기적으로 금보다 낫다고 주장한다. 다우지수는 1900년 초 466에서 약 1세기 동안 배당을 포함해 큰 성장을 보였고, 같은 기간 금은 20달러에서 1만 1,400달러 수준으로 올랐지만 배당이 없다는 점을 비교한다. 생산적 자산은 장기적으로 비생산적 자산을 이긴다는 것이 핵심 논리이며, 단기(1년·5년) 기간에는 어떤 자산이든 다른 자산을 이길 수 있다고 인정한다. 금 투자자들이 공포를 조장한다는 비판도 있으나, 종이화폐 가치가 장기적으로 하락한다는 전제 자체는 맞다고 인정하면서 금 투자 결론에는 동의하지 않는다. 금 가격 방향이나 특정 종목에 대한 1~3개월 단기 예측은 없고, 금에 대한 장기적 부정적 견해만 제시된다.
다듬은 글
I would say that's about gold if you took all of the gold in the world it would it would roughly make a cube 67 feet on a side so if you took all the gold in the world we could have a cubit went down there 67 feet 67 feet high and that would be the whole thing now for that same cube of gold it would be worth at today's market prices about seven trillion dollars that's probably about a third of the value of all the stocks in the United States so you could have a choice of owning a third of all the stocks in the United States or you're gonna have a choice of owning that little block of gold which can't do anything but kind of shine there and make you feel like Midas or Croesus or something of the sort now for seven trillion dollars there are roughly a billion farm acres of farmland in the United States they're valued at about two and a half trillion dollars it's about half the continental United States is farmland you could have all the farmland in the United States you could have about seven Exxon Mobil's and you can have a trillion dollars of walking-around money and if you offered me the choice of looking at some 67 foot cube of gold and looking at it all day font fondling it occasionally you know and then saying you know do something for me and it says I don't do anything I just stand here look pretty and and the alternative to that was to have all the farmland of the country everything cotton corn soybeans seven Exxon Mobil's just think of that and a trillion dollars of walking-around money I you know maybe call me crazy but I'll take the farmland that the Exxon Mobil's all right that makes some sense Carl you've got a question all right we've never even talked about the supply picture but he's talking about eventually being able to increase the supply of gold you had a shareholder who asked you a question about gold over the weekend and your response was pretty instant or interesting Berkshire versus gold you want to talk about how that's performed over the years yeah but when you go beyond that but certainly when we took over Berkshire Berkshire was selling in $15 a share and gold was selling at $20 an ounce and then goals is now 1600 and Berkshires 120,000 but but you can take a broader example on that if if you if you buy an ounce of gold today and you hold it a hundred years you can go to it every day and you could you can coup to it and you can caress it and and you can fondle it and and 100 years from now you'll have one ounce of gold and I won't have done anything for you in between if you buy a hundred acres of farmland it will produce for you every year you can use that money to buy more farmland you can do all kinds of things but for a hundred years it'll produce things for you and you still have 100 acres of farmland at the end of the hundred years you could buy the Dow Jones Industrial Average 466 at the start of 1900 gold was then $20 at the end it was eleven thousand four hundred but you don't gotten dividends for a hundred years so a productive asset of any kind of decent productive asset is going to kill a non-productive asset over time now in any given one-year period five year period any asset can outperform another asset why don't you join me but and buy some cows I like your farmland but you know you're in Nebraska for Creber Iowa you love steak I mean that we we can have leather we can have manure we can have milk we can have me well employees we employ people taking care of the cows I mean it's worth 50 cent whatever we had one in here look I think it was worth like sixty or seventy thousand dollars I can get like so many head of cattle for that and be productive my point i but you like farmland you're just too lazy to take care of the cattle or something pay some people absolutely must be a dying might be hard I know I've kept a few but I've never have you tell about it I hope you have not kidding that is that's move it's cool you know I know they're sweet they're sweeping but not too bright like me get somebody else to do all the work give them a percentage of the crop and you can sit back there for a hundred years and get a percentage of the crop and you still got the land when you get all through I will guarantee you that farmland over a hundred years is going to be gold and so our solar equities why do you think gold bugs get so irate because they really come out yeah it's very interesting if you go on CNBC and say that bonds are kind of a poor investment you know people don't get mad at you you don't even hear from the Treasury I mean you can you can knock almost any investment and people may get a little dirty but we talk about gold and of course that says something about about their motivations for Honor's if they want people to agree with them they want people everybody they want everybody to get so scared they run to a cave with gold and and I caves me but I might be a better investment than gold I mean least they're not producing more caves all the time so they want they want people to be as afraid as they are because that's the bunch was gonna Bruce increase in prices incidentally they're right to be afraid of paper money I mean they have a very their basic premise that that paper money around the world was going to get worth less and less and less over time is is absolutely correct but I just disagree with the investment theory beyond that yeah yeah where they run from that and and they should run from it is where in my view they make the mistake but they have a correct basic premise okay guys we'll send it back over to you we do have a lot more coming up okay
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