저자: GregCrossfield · 외국인
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결론: 유가가 배럴당 25~30달러까지 추가 하락할 가능성이 있다고 봄. 배경: 2014년 이후 유가가 122달러에서 26달러 수준으로 급락했으며, 그 전환점은 노스다코타 바켄 셰일 오일의 대규모 공급 유입으로 미국이 세계 2위 산유국이 된 것이라고 설명. 워런 버핏의 대응: 버핏이 철도회사를 인수하고 원유 수송용 탱크차 2,000대를 주문했으나, 송유관 확충으로 바켄 원유 수요가 줄면서 주문 일부를 늦추는 손실이 발생. 운송업체들이 유가 하락을 반복적으로 과소평가했다는 점도 지적. 손익분기점 변화: 1년 반 전 노스다코타 원유 손익분기점은 배럴당 약 55~60달러로 추정됐으나, 송유관 확대로 운송비가 낮아지면서 40달러 후반대로 내려왔다고 주장. 이에 따라 저유가에서도 생산이 유지될 수 있음. 향후 전망: 수익성이 확보된 기존 유정들이 생산을 늘리고 신규 시추도 이어져 공급 과잉이 지속되며, 유가는 현 수준에 머물거나 더 내려갈 것으로 봄. 저렴한 시추·운송 비용과 항공사의 연료비 절감 효과도 함께 언급. 캐나다 등 석유 의존 경제에 위협이 될 수 있다고 진단. 리스크/조건: 이 분석은 셰일 생산비 하락과 송유관 확대가 지속된다는 전제에 기반하며, 중국 소비 둔화가 유가 하락을 가속한다고 봄. 트럼프 정책으로 유가가 오를 수 있다는 의견은 언급만 되고 본인은 동의하지 않음.
다듬은 글
good morning this video is designed to review a number of issues related to what Warren Buffett is doing with the trading religion all prices that are going on right now in North Dakota my goal is to first review what's happened recently and how Warren Buffett has responded to it and then follow that on with the prediction of the possibility of what i call $25 all so as I covered in my first video a situation occurred which is all prices went from let's call it 122 twenty-six dollars a barrel over a one-year period this is a classic case of what's called the in economics the prisoner's dilemma so basically are the driver for this at the tipping point for this was what's going on with oil in North Dakota now North Dakota is not that far from Canada arm when I heard about the oil that was being discovered in North Dakota i actually didn't take it seriously because I thought that you know they're good a little bit of oil they dig it up ship it out and then you know just like what we've seen with the oil pipelines in Texas arm you know they'd be drilling that's a close to shore where was easy to find all of that oil is now tapped out so they keep having to move further and further out into deeper waters and got more expensive oil so is my perception that the coda would be no big deal for North Dakota and the Bakken filled with me know the deal it turns out that it's completely opposite what actually occurred is there the introduction of the oil coming from north dakota to the global oil system i was a tipping point where the United States went from the fourth or fifth largest producer of oil in the world are into the number two position and when this happened combined with things like China reducing consumption may be a little slow down the economy that combination resulted in a huge drop in oil prices that a lot of people are taking surprised by even people who are part of creating this problem or opportunity when it comes to fracking so I wanted to you know review this with you because my first impression was forget about it this is no big deal all prices will weather this as soon as all that oil is gone we're done with the issue clearly that's not the case there are long-term graft billions of dollars or billions of barrels with oil sitting in North Dakota ready to be mine the next stage of this dialogue focuses on warren buffett and his reaction to it his reaction was he purchased a railroad are moving oil-by-rail rotors is much cheaper than doing so by truck so in essence and the rail lines were already going right by where this was being pumped so warm made the quick move to go ahead and purchase two thousand double-hole tankers to carry this oil and they're on backorder because it takes a while to make these tankers what then happened was as we know after you purchase those tankers ready to move the Bakken oil suddenly there were our pipelines with own within only a few hundred miles of their that I'll get within a year were able to consume at least half of the production coming from that area so what this resulted in was Warren's train moves up a gallon or a gallon of oil for 15 of our barrel of oil for fifteen bucks arrow to the judges the refinement centers in Baltimore let's say Texas the pipeline's can get it there for three bucks a barrel so he's his facilities in our locker competitive so this brings on a further look at how and why Lauren reacted to this issue obviously the first move is to slow or maybe answer some of the order and he's done which results in some losses but the other sort of issue that he noticed are concluded was that there are certain entities a transportation companies that are have repetitively leopard for the price of oil oil and the question was for his time verizon investments typically is three to five years what was he facing the answer that I see him coming upward is that we're in a low oil price and going lower environment so that's the third part of what i want to cover right now is where I see all prices don't so what happened when i heard about this possibly lower oil prices i was like well that's ridiculous because the cost of fracking is it a certain number and therefore you can't lower that price i talked with some of my friends who are expert in the industry and they said all they have to do is lower costs and everything will work out so what's interesting is that the break-even point as of a year and a half ago for that North Dakota oil is somewhere around sixty dollars a barrel maybe was 55 arm i thought they couldn't lower their costs because they couldn't change technology fast enough to drop those costs what happened was that all the sudden these pipelines started extending into the area including the Bakken pipeline being tested right now and they're causing the break-even right let's say from before to go from the range of sixty dollars to now in the range of the high forties so that means that people could ship oil profitably by pipeline out at lower prices so what I see happening in the near future is that as as these entities start pumping more oil because they can actually make money let's keep in mind there are 5000 wells that tap because they could make money so then have to drill new wells i can just open up the library have drove and start profiting from the higher price of oil that OPEC is not brought in so what I believe is going to curve is that all prices definitely take stay where they're at I actually think there's a mandate for possibly a twenty-five to thirty dollar barrel oil and this is a legitimate threat to the economies of Canada and other places that rely on and i think that the the confluence of lower cost of racking combined with lower cost of shipping you know there's a discussion of mr.
Trump of all prices rising because it globally I'm gonna get stronger I actually see his friends that now bring more pipelines into the mix lowering the cost of goods sold for the oil people to the point where this could cause a flood of all the hit and airlines being the biggest one of the biggest manufactory especially because the airlines have now gotten down into not quite monopoly but a small number of players who can instantly bring lower cost of fuel to their bottom lines so you know this is my second drill and looking at warren buffett and the impact of oil prices on what he is doing with his investing i also think he chose the airline's because unlike other transportation companies like FedEx UPS their competitive landscape so different in terms of the number of entities that are available including Amazon that are building our facilities compete with them on the delivery side so thank you for for watching please like and subscribe and look forward to producing more in this area as we see where all prices go and how it impacts things
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