Wharton's Jeremy Siegel explains why he thinks the U.S. is already in a recession

요약 보기

결론: 미국은 이미 경기침체에 들어섰으며, 연준의 긴축 기대는 과도하고 물가 압력은 대부분 지나갔다는 견해. 경기 판단: 상반기 두 분기 성장률이 마이너스이고, 공식 발표 여부와 무관하게 침체라고 주장. 경제지표(데이터)가 6월에 급격히 둔화. 물가·연준: 유동적 가격(원자재, 주택, 운송비)은 이미 하락 전환. 임금은 비유동적이라 계속 오를 전망. 통화량은 올해 거의 정지 상태로 전례가 없다고 평가. 연준 전망: 연준이 이전에 긴축이 늦었다고 지적했으나, 이제는 급격한 긴축으로 경제를 망가뜨리지 않도록 신중해야 한다고 주장. 연방기금금리 전망(3.25%)까지 갈 필요는 없을 수 있으며, 데이터가 약하면 0.75%p 인상 대신 0.25%p 인상 논쟁이 나올 수 있다고 언급. 달러·금리: 달러가 약 15% 급등한 것은 매우 타이트한 시장 신호로, 미국 실질금리가 타국보다 크게 높아 핫머니가 유입. 이는 디플레이션 신호이며 연준이 과도하게 돈을 풀었다가 지금은 긴축 속도를 조절해야 한다고 봄. 리스크: 연준의 과도한 긴축이 경기 붕괴를 부를 수 있음. 여러 지표를 주시해야 함. 주식시장 하락과 소비자 비관론이 누적되고 있음.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. where are we in the markets uh right now it seems like you know we see a pullback in interest rates that's a free pass for investors to go back into the growth year names and then it's a vicious cycle here yeah most certainly i mean you know we are really in a recession there's no question the first two quarters here are negative whether the nbr calls it or not data was falling off really sharply in june i'm interested in the employment report um and you know later today we have that service ism report uh the fed has to be really careful and i said that a few weeks ago shocking people because uh you know i was the one that's saying they were way behind and should have been tightening last year and as it as they didn't you know the inflationary pressures built up and then everyone said oh my god they have to tighten dramatically and i think the market is almost over anticipating how much they're going to have to tighten look all flexible prices and now what i mean by that the commodity prices uh housing prices freight prices uh that move up and down on a daily basis they've they've rolled over now the the inflexible prices are wages and they're still they're still going up uh they don't respond like a uh like you know like the stock market or the gold market so we're going to see those wages continue to rise but really the anticipation of the fed tightening and how high they're going to have to go i think is almost excessive now i think the fed has to be careful you know i monitored the money supply and you know that told me that we were going to have all this inflation that we had well the money supply has been brought to almost a dead stop this year and that is unprecedented and uh and i said oh you know three weeks ago the fed has just got to be careful not to slam on the brakes and just crash this economy they've got to watch things yes they have to raise they have to ratify what's going on but they have to realize that most of the inflation now is behind us even though it's going to be going through the official statistics over the next six to 12 months isn't that sort of the dynamic that you described in terms of wages remaining sticky and going higher and inflation rolling over isn't that a recipe for demand not necessarily to be destroyed as much as the fed needs it to be in order to fight inflation longer term well i i think that what's happened is because wages have not kept up with inflation um and and uh really inflation rolls over then then can it well what what what we're going to see the sensitive road you know don't forget these sensitive prices went up 20 25 30 percent the cpi as recorded you know was up what eight percent nine percent um so those prices are sort of coming down they're still you know workers have still lost a lot of purchasing power we know about the decline in the stock market we know the pessimism that we see in these you know consumer reports all these things are adding up to the fact is yes the fed has to do some more tightening but you know maybe they're gonna have to don't have to go to that three and a quarter percent that the the the funds rate is projecting um we might we might get a debate about whether they're going to go 75 at the end of this month if the data continues weak and if the data gets really weak there might be a few people there saying maybe we should do 25.

02. um and that's a shocker i know but i'm just saying that you know my my look at look at the dollar you know look at dominic was saying about i mean this is incredible a 15 rise that is an extremely tight market i mean that money is flowing in to get the high real rates that we have right over here in the united states real rates of interest have jumped up so much much higher than the rest of the world hot money goes here that's a deflationary also signal that's going on fed made a bad mistake put in too much money can't slam on the brakes right now you know they're gonna have to watch a lot of indicators