저자: StockBookie · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 현재 시장은 펀더멘털보다 시장 전체 흐름에 따라 움직이는 '마켓 트레이드' 국면이며, 발표자는 CMG·ULTA·NVDA·TSLA·GILD는 약세, IBB는 단기 반등 후 조건부 강세로 본다. [시장 전반] 증시는 하루 급락 후 급반등을 반복하는 상황이며, 최근 두 달간 거래량이 부족해 방향성이 뚜렷하지 않다. 발표자는 고점에서 분배(distribution)가 일어나고 있다고 보고, 연준과 강세론자들이 주가를 더 올려 추가 매수자를 끌어들이려 한다고 주장한다. 거래량을 주시하라고 강조한다. [치폴레(CMG)] 일봉에서 상승 추세선과 피보나치 38.2% 되돌림 아래로 내려갔으나, 장 막판 반등해 추세선 위로 올라섰다. 다만 아웃사이드 바 반전 후 종가가 그 봉 아래면 약세로 본다. 월봉·주봉은 20 이동평균선이 하락 전환해 여전히 약세이며, 시장이 하락하면 아래로 갈 것으로 본다. [얼타(ULTA)] 고점에서 이탈 후 횡보하며 20일 이평선이 말려드는 약세 패턴이다. 발표자는 단기 반등 후 다시 하락할 가능성을 보며 228, 궁극적으로 213.65 수준을 목표로 본다. 주봉상 20주 이평선 회복 여부가 관건이며, 246~250 부근 회복 시 강세 전환 가능성을 언급했다. [엔비디아(NVDA)] 일봉상 50일 이평선 부근에서 지지받고 반등했으나, 발표자는 횡보 후 하락 패턴이 나오면 하락 가능성이 크다고 본다. 주봉으로는 60~66 저항을 회복해야 하며 현재 75 수준에서 종가가 형성됐다. 월봉은 아직 판단 보류. [테슬라(TSLA)] 주봉에서 큰 음봉 이후 약세 흐름이 이어지며 횡보 중이다. 발표자는 7~8주 횡보 후 이평선이 가격으로 말려들면 하락할 것으로 보며, 하락 시 166~150 부근까지 갈 수 있다고 본다. 상승 시 188 돌파, 213~225 구간이 목표다. 단기적으로 하락 쪽에 무게를 둔다. [길리어드(GILD)] 모든 이동평균선 아래에 있는 기술적 약세 상태다. 주봉 기준 79.55 회복 전까지 약세로 본다. 상승 시 80~82 저항, 하락 시 76~68 이탈이 중요하다. 시장이 하락하면 함께 하락할 것으로 본다. [IBB(바이오 ETF)] 일봉에서 장악형 반전 캔들이 나왔고 갭을 메우며 반등했다. 발표자는 20일선 위 유지 시 288~291, 이후 294~300을 목표로 보며, 50일선 이탈 시 조심할 것을 강조한다. 월봉은 여전히 내부봉 약세 패턴으로 253 방향 하락을 본다. 추격 매수는 하지 않겠다는 입장이다. [MCD] 일봉에서 반전했으나 20일선 아래라 약세 입장이다. 주봉은 50주·20주선 회복이 필요하며, 시장 급락 시 함께 하락할 것으로 본다. 월봉은 과거 대비 과열 되돌림 중이다. [리스크] 발표자는 모든 종목이 시장 흐름에 연동되어 있어, 시장이 급락하면 개별 차트 신호가 무력화될 수 있다고 경고한다. 브렉시트 당시처럼 급락 후 급반등하는 패턴을 언급하며 '안심 유도' 가능성도 지적한다. [출연자 전망] 전반적으로 단기적 시장 불확실성을 인정하면서도, 개별 종목 다수에 대해 약세 쪽 전망을 유지한다.
다듬은 글
, Alta, Nvidia, Tesla, Gilead, IBB, and MCD McDonald's. we're going to get into Chipotle on the daily, but first I want to want to tell you guys something here. Everything right now is a market trade. Just like on Friday when it tanked, everything went down. Just like today, we had a great rally, everything went up.
Now we're going up, down, up, down, up, down. We're going to see what tomorrow brings. But it it should get really, really interesting. They, as in the Fed and the bulls, they need to get this thing up a little bit higher so they can get more people on board. The problem is you get distribution at the highs.
And that's why this, you know, one day we're up, one day we're down. But the last two months have been just no volume. And that's why we really haven't been doing anything until Friday and until today. So keep an eye on the volume. Again, it's a market trade. SPY IWMQs go up, everything goes up. Those go down, everything's going down.
You'll get some strong ones like wind was a strong one uh for the last two days when we were down. Wind was up and then wind caught a nice bid today, but wind is getting close. We're at double top on that one, but that's a different video. All right, let's look at CMG. So, we talked about this top here when we came into it and closed on uh on Friday.
And I talked about, yeah, we have some pretty good support, but we also have this line down in here, which is the uh 382 retrace. So, we got below it. Oh, and then one more here. We have this trend line here as well. So, we got below it. I said there was going to be some support here unless the markets dump.
The markets did not dump. They had a nice bid today. So, guess what Chipotle did? It's up 235 on the day and really not that big of a showing, but it still got above this trend line and it still almost recaptured the 750 retrace on the upside, but this bar is still showing me uh Chipoti could be a little bit weak.
When we have an outside bar reversal and we close below this bar here, that tells me the stock is weak. So now we're going to wait for pattern on the daily. See where this thing can g. We tried getting above these trend lines, could not make it. And these trend lines go back, you know, back and back.
Couple two different ones. Nothing big. This pivot as well, but we got under, got above, got under. Now they're trying to attack it. Last week we were actually up and then the last Friday, boom, we reversed down. So we're still below it, but overall we're still down sideways in a bearish manner. monthly chart still not you know this down move kind of up down again and then now we're going consolidating in a bearish manner with the 20 MA curling down this is bearish still I mean we could get some news this thing can pop up or what have you but again if everything's a market trade so if this stuff starts to sell Chipotle will be heading its way downward ulta this was a highf flyier but we talked on the daily chart that we did come into a little bit support into this yellow line around 23921.
We hit it. We closed on top of it. We did have a gap fill right down in here. A lot of stocks had gap fills today. Filled the gap. Boom. We went right back up. Almost engulfed that candle on Friday, but this thing's been just getting a beatd down. We talked about this pattern. Couple more going sideways and then these things curving down into it.
So, I think it was a little bit premature. So, what we're looking for is maybe some up action or we come back in, get some more consolidation sideways, these curl into price and then shoot its way down. I still think we're getting to the 22853 level. If we retrace back into the 618 in this uh these moving averages, I would short again.
If you're short already, just let it play out again. If we come back up, I would short it. But this is a nice bearish pattern. I wish we would add a couple more days in that curl in the price. I'm still thinking 228, ultimately 21365. So, we got below the This is a weekly chart. We did get below this area on the 20 MA.
They tried reversing it and trying to recapture it. Again, this is weekly, so we're going to see if this thing can recapture the 20. If you are bullish on the weekly close, you need to get above this 20 MA. And it would be really nice if you could get above the 24627 or the 25 retrace coming up. If you get above there and close, we're going to have to wait till the following week to see if we could get a little bit of follow through, get a little bit of volume coming in here, and then possibly we come up into that area on the daily where the uh where the moving averages are or even, you know, we've been overshooting a lot, so maybe 266.
But we'll see. We'll see how this pattern plays out. Do we or do we reverse or just go straight down tomorrow? It's going to be interesting. These markets aren't really giving us too much right now other than the float, then the drop, and then a massive reverse. Kind of like the Brexit stuff. So, everyone's kind of conditioned to say, "Wow, you know, the Brexit did the same thing, and then we went up and up and up and up." Oh, man.
They It's It's It's conditioning, guys. I'm sorry. That That's what these guys do. They don't want anyone selling. They're going to keep telling you the hopes and dreams and everything's fine until it isn't. And then because you know why? Because they're distributing at the highs right now. That's what these guys are doing.
So the monthly chart, we're going to have to wait for the close, but right now we're trying to recapture the uh 25 retrace or the 750 retrace going up. So right now, not too much to do on Alta. It already it already did its thing, basically. But what a nice drop. We talked about the high-f flyier for a while at earnings.
It had great earnings and it still dropped. All right, let's look at Nvidia. This is another highf flyier, let me tell you this morning. Look at that, though. Gosh, everything everything's coming into support. We talk about this as well. So man, you know, I I when it came back in and filled this gap, I was saying, you know what, there's some support in here.
There's a 25 retrace. It barely touched. And then you have the 50 or the 50 moving average right down in here. And let's see, you do have a gap. Look at that. Almost gap fill. What is that? 25. Yeah, just missed gap fill, but it hit the 50 MA. That helped this one really bounce up, but we ended up coming in.
It was a$123 up. So, it wasn't that, you know, it was a 2% move, but not huge. But again, they got it almost closed above the 6060 or no, they did close above the 6069 area. So, they're right on top of this low, these low pivots. Tomorrow, I'd like to see more follow through. If it does not, then we'll wait for pattern to see where this thing could be going next.
If it sets up sideways in a bearish manner, we're definitely going to possibly, well, not definitely and not possibly, we should go down. But again, it's a market trade. If the markets start to dump, this thing is going lower. Weekly chart, uh, we're trying to get above the 6066. We recaptured it today.
We're at 6075 on the close. So, we're going to see if this thing can have some momentum and get up. We did have a nice pattern going here until Friday and then it kind of broke it up. But look, we came into the inside bar today, filled the gap, bounced it right up with the markets. Markets floated, this floated and everything's okay again on Wall Street.
Let's go to the monthly. Monthly, same thing. just a high flyer. Moving averages is around 33.88. This one will start curling up. Right now, we don't really have too much on here. It's a monthly chart, so we still have a couple weeks to go. We'll look at this uh we'll look at this one in a couple weeks.
Maybe we wouldn't even do the monthlies, but you know, it's still important to look at because just in case we have MAS, high-f flyers, there's really nothing to look at other than the extension. All right, let's look at Tesla. Tesla was up almost four bucks today. We did short this one. We got like a buck something out of the first half and then a buck 25 out of the second half and then of course we covered and it kept going down.
You know, typical. Where did it end up? Not yet. Went about a buck. We're about a buck 25 lower from when we covered it. But again, they're fighting with this thing. You know, we went we retraced up, came back in, closed below this low, these low pivots. Looked like it was getting ugly. They came back, reversed it, and saved the day.
So, now we're looking at down sideways. We're looking at some more sideways consolidation. We'll let this 20 start to curl down a little bit more. And if it does, we'll run into the price and that should send this thing lower. But again, everything's a market trade. The market starts going up higher, these will follow to a certain extent.
The market starts to turn lower, everything's going to turn lower. I still think uh Tesla can get to 18787, but we're going to see what it brings in the next couple days. the weekly chart. Weekly chart, same thing. In or a big red bar, sell-off candle, consolidation, boom, next week flows below this uh big red candle.
That's bearish. Now, we're starting to chop around. So, let's see if we could go sideways for maybe seven, eight weeks on this bad boy. Let these uh moving averages curl into price and that should send it on its merry way. If that happens with consolidation, we're going to blast right through 188. And I think we're going to come down here and fill this gap.
Maybe fill the gap here right around 16640. But we'll keep an eye on this one just in case. We were short though. We got those news and we we actually made some pretty good money on that one. On the monthly, we're still below this uh upper trend line. I didn't connect that. I I like this one better, but uh we'll see.
We'll see where it closes. Still holding the uh 1987 in that area. As long as it holds up here, uh we're okay. But as a bull, you need to get above this 20 MA and keep going. For a bear, you want to see how it reacts at the 17738 or the 50 MA and the 750 fib. If it does not bounce there, we are definitely going lower.
Possibly, like I said, the 150 155 area. But again, each day gives us a new piece of the puzzle. And at this point, this is bearish, but it can have a failed uh bearish pattern. And we go straight up into the uh what is that? 213 through 14. I mean, you know, nice retracing of this area. You got the 618 here and then ultimately 220 and maybe 224 225.
If it gets past all that, wow, it deserves to go higher. But until then, I still think we're possibly breaking down. Oh man. So, that was Tesla. Let's look at Gilead. Actually, no. Tesla. Let's look at the weekly. Weekly inside bar and then Yeah, that one there. Hello. Uh Gilead. Gilead is holding on.
It's trying. It was up 80 cents today. Nothing special. Still in a weak technical position. Let me pull some of this garbage out. Still in a weak technical position. We're below all the MAS. We're trying to make a run today. Let's see where this thing possibly be going. Yeah, I mean if it gets above the 20 MA and then the 50 retrace around 7944, your next area resistance around 80 809.
Then the 750 which is 8081. So yeah, that's what you're looking for. If you're a bull, you got to recapture this MA and that MA. You're going to have some big resistance up here around the $82. And if you're bearish, you want to crack below the 76u uh 68. I think we're going lower again. Everything is a market trade.
Markets go down. These are going down. Weekly bearish pattern breaks down inside bar till we get above the 7955 on a weekly close. I'm still bearish on this chart as well. And you're below the MAS. Not good. This one here though, monthly, we got a little while to wait, but this damn well better capture recapture this 50 MA and get above.
Then I could think we could get a little more upward move again though, we got to follow the uh the charts. The charts tell us everything. If the spy and everything else is going down, these are going down. Let's get to the IBB. This one this one had a rally. I don't even know where this one came out of, but uh let's go to the daily.
Man, look at that. I mean, that was an engulfing reversal candle on the IBB. Did we fill the gap 156? Gosh, just fil, you know, there was people waiting here down at this gap fill. They missed it by about 10 cents and then they just ripped it. So, guys like me who are waiting the scalpers waiting, you know, I'll be a little more patient on this.
I'll go uh the 50 even number and then maybe 4540. So, it' be 27640 to go long. Never came close to it. Then they want to get you the chase. And in these markets, I'm not chasing at all. It's you start chasing this thing up and next thing you know, they reverse it and then they slam it in your face.
But that was some good action on here. We did close right on top of the 20 MA 98. Actually, if we close a little bit above it. So, we're going to see how this thing reacts tomorrow. If it start head if it starts heading up, we're looking at like the 288, 289, then ultimately the 291, and then I'm looking at this big breakdown bar, 294, then the top of this 297, and ultimately the uh 290 number, or actually 300 number, and we'll go from there.
If you're bull, I would start taking some off the top here. If not, put a real real tight stop in because you don't want to see one of this or one of those where all a sudden you just go straight up. Boom. Like here we go. retracing back up into this area. We're going to see if it can handle that retrace.
And if not, I think we could possibly click and go right back down. If you're bullish, you need to stay above the 20. If you're bearish, you need to get below the 200 MA. And then ultimately, this pivot here around 27851 would be great. Weekly trying to recapture the uh 50 MA. What do we talk about?
50 MA got below it. Got below it. Telling you, Janet and her henchmen, she must be watching my videos because wow. They closed at 66. Yeah. So, they're above the 50 MA right now, man. Because let me This these charts were starting to look ugly and they had to do something here. I mean, we could not catch a bid for the last uh one, two, three, four, five weeks.
Went right on that 299 and pulling back ever since. We bounced up here because it is, you know, start forming up a little bit of a wedge in the support. You're going to get this little bit of bounce. So on IBB, it needs to stay above the 50 MA. Monthly, monthly still inside bar bearish pattern. I I still don't like this.
I think it's going lower in my opinion. Once we get uh to this point, I think it's going below 253. We need to recapture this 310 if you want it to go higher on a monthly basis. Let's look at MCD real quick. Got about a minute left here. Uh let's see here. Yeah, nice reversal. Still below the 20 MA.
So still in a bearish stance. Weekly love that inside bar. Needs to get above the 50 and the 20 to continue up. If not this thing that the markets dump, it will be going lower. Monthly chart, same thing. Stretch coming back in. It was up above 37, so not too bad. All right, guys. That's it for today.
I hope you enjoy watching my me an email at [email protected]. Thank you everybody. God bless. See you on the charts.
댓글 0