Warren Buffett On Bitcoin | May 6, 2013

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결론: 비트코인은 부정적으로 평가되며, 두 출연자는 법인세와 은행 규제, 연준 정책에 대해 견해가 엇갈리거나 경계적 입장을 보였다. 비트코인: 먼저 Charlie Munger는 비트코인을 "쥐약(rat poison)"이라 부르며 "매우 불안정하다(deeply flaky)"고 평가했다. 가격 방향 예측이나 투자 권유는 없었다. Warren Buffett은 정부가 여전히 지배적 역할을 할 분야라고 언급했으나 구체적 가격 전망은 없었다. 법인세: Munger는 미국 법인세율이 다른 나라보다 높으면 불리하므로 법인세율을 약간 낮추는 것이 좋다고 주장했다. Buffett은 기업 수익성이 매우 좋고 세수가 GDP 대비 1.7~1.8%로 낮아 기업에 더 많은 세금을 부과해야 한다고 반대했다. 은행 및 규제: Buffett은 웰스파고와 U.S. Bancorp에 대한 투자에 긍정적이었다. Munger는 은행가들이 과도하게 행동해 피해가 크므로 은행 규제를 강화해야 하며, 대형 파생상품 포지션을 제한해야 한다고 주장했다. 연준 및 거시: Munger는 현재 상황이 매우 불확실하며 경제학계조차 혼란스럽다고 평가했다. 과거 그린스펀 연준이 버블 때 긴축 대신 완화를 택한 것을 비판했고, 현재의 대규모 부양 조치가 어떤 부작용을 낳을지 아직 알 수 없다고 봤다. 명확한 금리·지수 방향 예측은 없었다. 종합: 대상 자산 중 1~3개월 가격 방향에 대한 명시적 예측 발언은 없었다. 비트코인에 대해서만 부정적 평가가 있었으나 방향 예측이나 매매 조언은 아니었다.

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01. for your bitcoin right we need to talk about bitcoin in a minute i can't wait to hear what charlie munger has to say about this let's bring in charlie munger the vice chair of berkshire hathaway bill's going to move over so you can come sit in good morning charlie good morning i just had to get your thought on bitcoin this this this digital currency that's out there that people say oh it might be the next big thing what do you think i think it's rat poison put him down as undecided do you understand what they're trying to do with it no but i regard it as deeply flaky deeply flaky okay bitcoin bill what do you think uh i think it's a technical tour to force but that's an area where governments are going to maintain a dominant role bill warren i think either charlie or bill is right either one of those guys charlie one of the things that i noticed during this this weekend meeting was that you and warren disagreed on a couple of issues but the one that struck me the most was your issue on corporate tax rates warren feels that corporations should be taxed more they have the money you say no why well i i think it's a disadvantage to have your tax rate less than the tax rate elsewhere in the world and so i don't think we're in total control of our own tax rates meaning i think we should i think would be crazy to have a tax rate in the united states fifty percent and have it twenty percent generally throughout the rest of the world do you think that for higher taxes but i think this should be on individuals and consumption and so on i don't think we i like a low-tech corporate tax rate do you think it should be considerably lower than what it is now here in the us no just slightly somewhat yes somewhat slightly warren you disagree yeah i think that incidentally charlie and i have disagreed on lots of things over the years we've never had an argument over 50 years but we do disagree sometimes and u.s taxes are corporate taxes are 1.7 1.8 percent of gdp uh frequently i mean if you go back some years they were four percent we did well under those conditions business is doing extraordinarily well and since we have to raise money from some place uh and i see these returns on equity and in business compared to the interest rates being at incredible levels uh i just think that if you're looking for who to tax more i think that corporations should be part of that act the banks sure have have moaned a lot about how they feel they're over taxed and that they're over-regulated you both disagreed on that a little bit you actually feel on the entire banking issue that banks look healthier nowadays you feel very comfortable about your investments in wells fargo mmt um you know u.s bancorp u.s bank corp as well but charlie you're less optimistic in the long term about banks what worries you i think too many bankers go crazy it does too much damage when it happens so i'm for more bank regulation not less what form should it take i would deny their ability to have huge derivative books and all kinds of things do you think the derivatives are still too large a position on some of their books sure how do you regulate something like that well if you let me do it it would take about a week what's lacking is the will not not the power the will not the power of let's talk quickly about the fed you had a great quote during the the shareholder meeting where you said that back during the first bubble alan greenspan that instead of taking the punch bowl away before people got totally drunk they increased the alcohol proof i think that's right what is i think he's regretted it since which is to his credit but what are we doing now is there a punch bowl is the alcohol proof too heavy right now how do you see it well what i said was if you're not confused by what's happening now you don't understand it even the people in the economics profession are confused we're we're sort of uncharted waters in germany yeah now we had a huge huge problem so it it undoubtedly required a lot of medicine but we have not yet seen medicine like this dosed out and then the after effects