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Tom Lee and his hairstyle. Uh, you got a haircut. This... It looks... We talked about this, briefly and stylishly. You decided to do this, right? Yes. That's good. It's good that you did it. He is Head of Research at Fundstrat and Chief Investment Officer of Fundstrat Capital, and a CNBC contributor.
We no longer have to deal with people focusing on this on Twitter instead of studying your predictions. So at least we have that. Tom, August, you thought, was going to be really good, and it was good, but it's not 8,000 for the S&P. It's not 7800. Then September, you thought there might be a convergence of concerns that made everyone else a "bear" while you were a "bull." You thought they would make themselves felt in September, and maybe there would be a 10% pullback.
Yes, this is what I consider the base case scenario, because there are many conflicting factors this month. For example, Joe Lavia talks about the Fed raising rates in September, the backlash against AI data centers, and seasonality, September is a weak month, but now I think that with all these growing concerns, the market could surprise us with growth.
And I think September 15th, the Fed meeting, could be a turning point. If the Fed neither cuts nor raises rates, which is our base case scenario, I think the markets could go up very much. This won't be one of those situations where confidence is in question and the market actually wants a rate hike.
The market never wants a rate hike, right? This... This is true. I think I agree with your statement this morning that he wants to demonstrate confidence but wants to wait to see how the data develops . And if the data, we have the employment report on Friday and the CPI report in early September, I think if both are weaker, the market will not be pricing in a rate hike.
Does this mean a revision to your forecast for a fairly large, significant correction this year, or are you now talking about October or November? So, maybe it'll be moved to October, because, you know, I think the general consensus is that the midterm elections will be the starting point for stocks to move higher, but maybe October, which is usually a month of big moves, could actually be weak.
Could it be from a level above 8000? Yes. Yes. Maybe above 8,000. Then the lows might not be too different from those of a couple of months ago. Yes, maybe 7300-7400 or something like that. Which we could probably survive without much loss. But that would certainly cause a lot of fear, hatred, and everything else from people who think we're headed for 6,000 or worse.
Yes, I agree. I mean, whenever the market is flat for a week, people start thinking that a bear market is starting, you know. So I think people very easily drift into pessimistic moods. They are ready for this. Yes, I know. What about cryptocurrencies and Bitcoin? That was strange, right? What do you attribute this move to —a meeting with leaders at the White House or was he simply ready?
Yes. I think we look at it this way: first, the fundamentals of crypto have been good this year, because we know that the tokenization movement is very strong. I mean, Robinhood was a breakthrough product launch. It's truly one of the greatest hits, and AI is good for crypto, but we were in the midst of this crypto winter.
I really think the catalysts have come together and will be significantly strengthened by the end of the year, because first of all , crypto is a macro asset that shows the best results in the third quarter. Therefore, I believe that institutional placements in crypto will occur in September and the fourth quarter .
Secondly, you know, the four-year crypto cycle actually ends next month. So I think people who turned off crypto on their screens will come back. Korean investors who have been very active in crypto. You know, they switched to AI earlier this year , but we're already seeing volume growth in Korea. So, they return to the crypt.
And finally, if the Clarity Act passes, which could happen this year, I think Bitcoin and Ethereum will have a great fourth quarter. So is cryptowinter over, and will strong third and fourth quarters make up for what we saw last year and Bitcoin's decline? Yes, I think it was a very weak cryptocurrency winner.
Um, but there have been massive debt reductions , like the October big decline, and then twice more earlier this year . So I think very few people own cryptocurrency. This is why I believe Bitcoin could easily reach six figures. We will get a rate increase. What will happen in the crypto market? I think this will be a good test.
Um, but we already know that long-term rates have risen. So, if the rate is raised and long-term yields fall, this is actually a loosening of monetary policy. So it may depend on how long-term yields respond to the Fed raising rates . You said there would be a jump in cryptocurrency. I think last time, you meant that, or even more, up to 90,000?
I can't remember exactly what you said, but you thought he was Yes. will go up. I believe this is just the beginning. Yes. I think this is the first stage of growth, because this movement in the crypto market has caught people by surprise. Yes. Um, I think institutional investors are buying up cryptocurrency stocks.
This is really obvious. Trading volumes have increased significantly, a sign that they are betting on a strong fourth quarter. And you once mentioned the number 150 regarding Bitcoin. Have you not given up on such forecasts, or perhaps even higher ones ? I think 150 is still possible. Hmm, it's not that far away.
Yes. And I believe that's because the S&P also has a lot of potential through the end of the year. You know, 8200 is, I think, still a low number. This is what the S&P could achieve by the end of the year, given how much earnings have been revised upwards. We originally thought it would be 350 in 2027.
Now it's 415, but next year profits could reach 425. This coincided with our figures this quarter, but others predicted 18%, and it turned out 30%. Seriously? Yes, that's right. And that's still almost 20% organic growth, excluding investment returns. What do you think is the current baseline GDP growth rate?
Because imports, this surge in imports, has masked the actual growth rate, giving Democrats and others a reason to say that we have one and a half percent, because we hear that we have one and a half percent. What do you think we really have with corporate profits, given what we're seeing? Structural GDP looks much stronger than it has in the past 20 years, thanks to a positive investment cycle, reshoring, and energy infrastructure development.
What is this 3%? Yes, I think it's above three. Do you think it's higher than three? Yes, but this does not necessarily cause inflation, because salaries are a kind of component of inflation , and they are not that high.
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