저자: HowardMarks · 외국인
요약 보기
시장 타이밍은 대부분 투자자에게 실패 확률이 높으므로 가능한 한 장기간 투자 상태를 유지해야 한다는 주장. 마크스 본인도 50년간 시장 판단이 맞은 건 5번뿐이었다고 언급. 과대평가가 곧 하락을 의미하지 않으며, S&P500은 1920년 이후 연 10~10.5% 복리로 상승해 왔다는 근거 제시. 인내와 장기 보유가 핵심 전략이라는 결론.
다듬은 글
Now, I believe that most investors should be invested most of the time. The idea of being able to get in and get out and get in and get out, what we call market timing, is not a good idea for most investors. It's very hard to do. You have to understand the market. You have to stay the economy. You have to study your psy psychology.
And you have to operate against your psychology. You have to buy when things are really bad and sell when things are really good. This is hard for most people. So I I don't think that the average viewer should try market timing. They should invest either all the time or almost all the time. Now it would be great to try to reduce your risk when the market is really high.
Hard to do. Maybe worth trying. But that's about it. And market timing most of the time uh is too hard to try. Now [snorts] when I was working on my book about the cycle, I said to my son, who is a very important uh sounding board for me, I said, you know, I think my market calls have been correct over my career.
And you know what he said to me? That's because you did it five times in 50 years. This is very important concept. And you know he he he looks at all these questions with fresh eyes and makes great observations. Five times in my life the market was here or here. [snorts] And on those occasions the error was obvious, the argument was compelling.
The chance of being right was very high. Here or here? What about here or here or here or here? In between it's not so obvious. And uh the chance of being wrong is quite substantial. That's why people should not try this on a regular basis. And we don't try on a regular basis. We don't change from month to month or year to year.
only in the extremes and and you know and we're professionals and we think we understand the process and yet we don't try that often to time the markets. Um and think about it this way. [snorts] Let's say I told you that the market is 10% overvalued. Let's say I'm correct. What's the probability that it's going to go down over the next year versus up?
My guess would be 55 to 60%. It's it's very common for the market to be overvalued and go up further. And in fact, if the market c went down every time it was 10% overvalued, it would never get to 20% overvalued or 30% overvalued or 40%. And we've seen those gain and and and we would never have bubbles
which we do from time to time. So clearly overpriced and going down tomorrow are not synonymous. And so I think for most people market timing is not the solution. For most people, the the the answer is understand investing. Figure out a rational way to do it, whether it's picking good companies or or going into funds or hiring a manager or something like that.
Don't expect too much, you know. Uh I go to people, I say, I think we can make you 8% a year. I think we can make you 12% a year with our riskier products. I say maybe we uh uh I think we can make you 20% a year. Then the next guy comes in. He says, "We'll triple your money." He gets the money, but of course his his activities are not founded on a solid foundation.
We're not going to produce miracles. If you can compound your money at at 10% a year, it's a great accomplishment. And most people should not expect to do that or or do better than that. The the the S&P 500, the main stock index in the United States, has risen at about 10 12% since 1920. Now, since 1920, we've had 17 recessions, the Great Depression, several wars, including a world war.
Mhm. Now we've had a pandemic, many geopolitical problems, many economic problems. We've still compounded at 10 and a half% a year. And if you put a dollar in the S&P in 1920 and you held it strongly, you never bought, you never sold, you know what you'd have today? 8,000. That's the magic of compound growth without interruption.
So for most people, the the answer is put your money in, understand what you're doing so that you can be steady. Don't mess it up. And um I I think that uh there's a great American investor named Bill Miller who has one of the greatest records and he said I quote him as saying it's time not timing that produces success.
Just just put your money in and let time pass. Every investor has a different style. Some trade fast, some buy and hold, and some look for values. Some chase growth. But here's one statement that almost every legendary investor agrees on. It's not about timing the market. It's about time in the market.
Think about it. Warren Buffet, Peter Lynch, Bill Aman, Howard Marx, Rakkesh Junjunwala, completely different strategies, different personalities, different markets. Yet all of them became successful by staying invested and letting time do the heavy lifting. Why does this work? Because in the short term, markets are chaotic.
Stocks can move up 50%, fall 50%, and swing widely from their 52- week highs and lows. News, emotions, fear, greed, everything pushes prices around. But zoom out. Over the long term, the noise fades. Charts start look clearer. [clears throat] Trends become clearer. And most quality businesses move in one general direction upward.
As Howard Marx puts it, the biggest investing error comes not from factors that are informational, but from those that are psychological. That's why patience is not just a virtue in investing. It's a strategy. When you stay invested, you allow compounding to work. You avoid emotional decisions. You stop reacting to every headline.
And suddenly, your chances of long-term success go up dramatically. Howard Marx explains this beautifully. He says most people lose not because they choose bad assets but because they could not stick with good ones during tough times. So when you hear time in the market beats timing the market, it's not just a catchy line.
It's a principle that has built fortunes. Different styles, same truth. Stay patient, stay invested. Let time do the work.
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