저자: TaylorHorton · 외국인
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결론: 지수는 최고가 부근에서 스퀴즈 상태이며 방향 확인 전까지 개별 종목 진입은 신중히 봐야 한다는 취지. 시장 상황: S&P500·QQQ가 최근 며칠 횡보하며 시간봉 스퀴즈 중이다. 스퀴즈가 위로 터지면 상승 모멘텀, 아래로 깨지면 개별주도 동반 하락 가능성을 언급했다. 페이스북(META): 2월 아닌 204달러 저항선이 핵심. 돌파 시 상승 지속, 저항 거부 시 204 아래 숏 전략을 고려할 수 있다고 했으나 테이프 읽기로 매수·매도 압력을 확인해야 한다고 강조했다. 마이크론: 전날 실적 발표 후 시간외 급등. 반도체 업종 전반에 영향을 줄 수 있다고 봤다. 엔비디아(NVDA): 스퀴즈 중 콜옵션을 미리 매수해 약 70% 수익 상태라고 밝혔다. 232달러 저항 돌파 여부를 주목하며, 돌파 시 100% 수익 가능성을 언급했다. 추가 진입은 권하지 않았다. 테슬라: 신고가를 경신했으나 주가 역사상 390달러대 부근에서 반복된 하락 패턴을 짚으며 주의를 당부했다. 구체적 매매 권유는 하지 않았다. 정치 뉴스: 탄핵 관련 소식이 있었으나 시장 영향은 제한적이라고 평가했다. 포지션 공개: AMD 풋 스프레드는 최대 이익 근처, SPX 아이언 콘도르 3개 프리미엄 수취 중, 엔비디아 스윙 포지션 양호한 출발. 리스크: 지수 스퀴즈 방향 실패 시 개별주 동반 하락 가능, 테슬라 과거 고점 패턴 반복 가능성.
다듬은 글
all right family good morning to everybody I hope everybody had a good day yesterday let's make today a better day okay few things to talk about heading into this Thursday session we always got to start with the market right so S&P 500 after this all time high party the last few days was pretty quiet there on Tuesday was once again quiet yesterday on Wednesday and we're still here inside of this hour the squeeze heading into this Thursday morning session so with the market being so strong taking a breather here consolidating on the hourly charts what we're looking to do here is focus on the indexes is our quote-unquote compass if we get the squeeze breakout to the upside we could be looking for some momentum to the upside and the individual names if this squeeze here fires to the downside and we're breaking support right here you may expect the individual stocks to follow suit as well so big-picture thinking for the market things are very strong right now we've taken a breather over the last 24 48 hours let's see if we can get a move outside of this squeeze today if we can depending which way this thing goes that could shake up the rest of the stocks on your watchlist you always want to follow the big money so when the index itself is in a squeeze paying attention to that can be a good indication of the next move not just for the index itself but probably the majority of names on your watchlist so keep in mind guys S&P 500 QQQ taking a breather the last few days are they resting for another move to all-time highs are we going to see this thing roll over we'll find out here today and I'm sure as many of you guys know we got a little bit of Trump news once again as we typically do Republican Party voted yesterday to try to impeach the president doesn't look like the market really gives that big of a [ __ ] right now I don't think he's gonna get impeached but I'm not here to talk about politics and please guys I don't care about your opinion on politics you shouldn't give a [ __ ] about my opinion on politics let's focus on the market all right so putting all that [ __ ] aside let's take a look here at Facebook so as you guys know last week Facebook gets a little bit of negative news here on Thursday it takes a good dump here below this level of support it's came back like a champ right it hits the floor here and goes on this nice move to the upside we did run up here towards that 204 resistance yesterday it ultimately stopped right there so beautiful move out the open yesterday the brakes get Pumped here at this 2:04 level of resistance if you're looking for a continuation of the market to the upside is a good chance Facebook sees that some continuation so very basic stuff here guys support resistance potentially going to look for a breakout above 204 but if the market is weak we could also look to short this thing beneath 204 now we don't have to sit here and try to guess which way this thing is gonna go you guys got to learn how to read the tape so when the group this morning guys those of you in the focus trades fam we're going to keep an eye here on Facebook but we're going to be looking at the tape as we open up here underneath this level of 204 do we see a lot of selling pressure on the ask if it's too much southern pressure we could get a fade underneath that level of resistance if there's an absence of selling pressure and we see the big continue to raise you could get the breakout above 204 so basic levels of support and resistance can lead to good trades but if you don't know how to read the tape and you don't know you know you don't understand the supply and demand behind the game it's kind of a coin flip the breakouts work when the buyers have taken control you know resistance shorts work when the sellers have taken control so it's one thing to wake up it's one thing to you know identify a level of resistance here learning how to read the tape is going to be the game changer for you guys so we're gonna focus on that a lot in the group for those of you guys who subscribe here on YouTube learn how to read the tape and if you don't know how they we can definitely help out with that but nonetheless Facebook underneath 204 it could be a nice break out it could be a nice rejection depending on the direction of the market and depending on the tape that's one play we might be thinking about here today alright and oddly enough micron had earnings last night so I thought earnings season was behind us for whatever reason micron has earnings at an odd time so nonetheless they have earnings last night they make a big move here in the after-hours micron is a semiconductor stock oftentimes a reaction in one of the names can really affect the other names in the group my focus here today is going to be Nvidia now I've got some long calls here in Nvidia that I bought days ago inside of the squeeze here during this quiet consolidation before the move before the implied volatility started to spike so what I'm gonna be focusing on here today guys as far as video goes if the market is strong if this thing begins to head towards that 232 level of resistance can you get a breakout now it's the same concept here as we just discussed in Facebook it's one thing to identify a level of resistance and you can flip the coin and take your entry if it happens to poke its head above that level but it really is going to matter here guys is the tape the buyers versus the sellers so with the potential catalyst for the semi names with micron exploding this morning after beating earnings I will be looking for a continuation a breakout above this 232 level here in Nvidia will I be looking for an additional entry I don't think so if you guys don't have a position yet that could be a nice little play right there but as I said I kind of like to get calls guys before the move starts before the IV spikes inside that consolidation heading into this morning I'm about 70% on those calls if we can break out might be looking at a hundred percent on this one if we do end up fading we got a few levels of support you can keep an eye on but with micron beating earnings I will be paying attention in this thing seeing if we can finally get that break above 232 here this morning now speaking of squeezes if you guys watched yesterday morning's prep video we identified a few good-looking squeezes and Tesla was one of them I've mentioned over the last few days guys why Tesla is such an interesting stock right now given where this thing is big picture wise it broke the squeeze yesterday after a lot of sloppiness early in the session but it was a breakout out of the squeezed on the left and the freaking thing finally hit its brand new all-time high I'm not looking to trade this thing I'm kind of treating this as a television show it's a good entertainment we'll see what happens here right you should just look at the history of the stock guys up around this range and granted this is a brand new all-time high but nonetheless if we flip here to a weekly chart putting aside the fact that we got an all-time high this is you know a pretty sketchy territory here for the stock historically maybe that's all done with you know maybe we're working our way towards a new ground there's also the potential for that dump so I'm not going to give you guys a suggestion or how to trade Tesla here I got no ideas on what you should do I'm not gonna be doing jack [ __ ] but just respect the stock respect historically what has taken place here time after time after time again these big moves towards 390 could history repeat itself absolutely could this be a new chapter for Tesla only times gonna tell so I want to keep reminding you guys and notices a name and the headlines you're seeing all over Instagram the you know stock universe on Twitter be a little bit careful that's all I can suggest so those are the things I'm looking at this morning guys Nvidia Facebook the market in the squeeze I've got an AMD put spread that hit max profit yesterday just about max profit I have three SPX iron condors those are all collecting premiums my Nvidia swing is off to a great start that's about it for me this morning guys so I appreciate you watching I wish you the best of luck in today's session and as always if you're not in the focus trades group yet you can look at the link in the description of this video the group is $10 a month guys I promise you it's going to be the most hands-on value-packed trading group out there and I'll give you the first month free so best of luck today guys go kick some [ __ ] ass I'll talk to you all in the next morning prep video
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