저자: JimCramer · 외국인
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한 줄 결론: 대형 반등은 과매도와 공포 심리에 따른 일시적 랠리로 보며, 펀더멘털이 나아지지 않아 지속성은 낮다고 봄. 시장 반등 배경: 다우 765포인트 급등, 거래량 많음. 지난해 11월 이후 랠리는 대부분 숏커버링 중심이었음. S&P 독자 오실레이터는 -10 수준으로 과매도였고 종가는 -9.25. -5 아래는 보통 매수 기회로 해석. 주간 약세 심리도 극단적. 금리: 2년물 국채금리가 급락(4.35~4.4%에서 4.11%로 하락). 연준의 금리 인상 속도 둔화 기대가 반영된 것으로 봄. 랠리 지속성 회의론: 과거 하루짜리 랠리 후 애널리스트들이 추정치와 목표가를 하향하는 패턴이 반복. 특히 기술주는 중국 의존도 때문에 리스크가 큼. 마이크론 실적 악재 직후라 이번엔 다를 이유가 없다고 봄. 거시 리스크: 유럽은 러시아 천연가스 의존과 우크라이나 전쟁으로 겨울 에너지 위기 우려. 중국은 봉쇄 정책 지속, 시진핑 연임 관련 불확실성. 미국은 임금 상승과 식품·주거 인플레이션이 여전함. 비료 부족, 조류인플루엔자로 계란·닭고기 비용 상승. 주택은 전년 대비 하락했으나 팬데믹 이전보다 높음. 유가 급등과 OPEC+ 회의 우려. 결론: 지금은 교과서적인 과매도 반등이며, 과매도 해소 시 현금을 확보해 다음 하락에 대비하겠다는 입장. 개별 종목 문답: IBM은 배당 매력은 있으나 해외 매출 비중과 실적 불확실성을 이유로 당장 실적 전망에 베팅하지 않고 기다리겠다는 입장. 맥도날드는 220달러대 회복 시 매수 의향 표명, 달러 강세 우려는 있으나 긍정적으로 봄. 코카콜라는 달러 강세 우려가 과도하다고 보며 긍정적 평가. 기타: 10월 유방암 인식 캠페인, 퍼미안 리소스 등 에너지 종목, 히스패닉 문화 관련 협찬성 코너 안내.
다듬은 글
that money welcome to Craig America uh don't I just entertain but to put incredible dancing today into in a market that has been so horrendously how the heck could we rally like crazy based on nothing I mean this was one of the best days of the year Dow surging 765 points has to be soaring 2.59 that's that full volume 2.27 and after last week's hitting yourself very few sold this one coming of course every rally since last November has been a mugs game so I can't blame anyone for wanting to just to dump I mean like sell sell sell sell all of their stocks in this colossal Vance no rally ever seems to have follow-through these days although we have said repeatedly if we can just get through September we will live to play again that's why we need to ask ourselves if this move could be different or it'll be another temporary move that goes nowhere but extensively about this with the club today and we've said that you've got to do a little selling but first let's acknowledge some things we're incredibly oversold many Traders got way too negative on stocks as an asset class you know I like to look at the S P's proprietary oscillator to measure this a a coming into today it was at -10 that historically means that a rebound is inevitable because there's just been too much selling by the way we finished the session at minus 9.25 that's this day's number that's still very positive because anything greater than minus five typically means buying opportunity last week we also had historic levels of bearishness according to a host of different uh different Services I get when you have this many bears sentiment was terrible second the most important single indicator we have for the direction of the market the two-year treasury soared today sending its yield dramatically lower now when the two-year hit 4.35 last week in Florida with 4.4 most of the experts figured the next stop was going to be five percent at which point charge used to be a much better bet than most stocks today though the two you're headed back to 4.11 really quite a surprise and the mood brightened considerably given that this piece of paper is generally viewed as a proxy for what the Federal Reserve is going to do we heard a lot of chatter about how the FED might be less aggressive with its rate maybe some weaker data ahead incredibly bullish that is if it's true so that's what's different on a daily today though I think it's more important to consider why these rallies tend to be one day wonders sure we had a summer rally that gave you a nice return until everything fell apart again in August hey that could happen again we certainly turned the page from miserable September didn't we good news because that is typically the worst month of the year for the most part this year's rallies have been short covering Affairs where the people who've been right the short sellers take profits by buying back their stocks at their shorts and they do that to close out the positions and that does tend to send the market higher now you know the shortcoming rallies because there are no buyers once the shorts are finished and the socks come right back down big after almost every single one day Wonder session I want you to remember this concept because there are so many big hedge funds that make giant bets against the market so when the average is full they like to take profits it's just that they or that in order to do that they have to buy to ring the register uh they're negative but they have to buy because they have to close out the position more importantly there are so many negatives environment it's to the point where the most impressive thing about today's Valley is that it happened at all my feeling is that today's bounce is all about sentiment getting too negative because nothing's really changed on a fundamental level yes it is true we finally got a weak PMI manufacturing meeting this morning that was quite a surprise but we've had so many strong numbers meaning numbers that fly in the face of the fed's attempts to cool down and overheat economy that this one cold report is not enough to cause the FED to Pivot toward a less hawkish side so why don't we do this let's consider what failed previous rallies and see if anything's changed so we're ready well the first thing that happened is that we have been having a tough time ever since Russia invaded Ukraine right it turned Europe upside down Western Europe especially Germany went all in on Russian natural gas as part of a misguided effort to defend the environment although shutting down nuclear plants in favor of fossil fuels sure seems like the last thing an environmentalist would want they didn't realize they're ignored that the Russian governments become increasingly hostile to the West now Europe's economy is totally Hostage to Russia even as their sensitivities lie with the democratically elected government a few quick while Russia is losing the war in the field it's threatened to unleash nuclear weapons while also conscripting hundreds of thousands of soldiers the winner beckons and with it comes the cold weather cold weather that could do a real number on fuel star of Western Europe that's a giant part of the global economy and could be in real trouble not a great background for a real turn China's the second big issue today almost every Tech stock rallied enormously taking their cue from the strength and treasuries but so much of tech is dependent on China much more than you realize meaning their houses to the Chinese government's endless lockdown house lockdowns they've embraced because they refuse to use good coveted vaccines there's no sign of any change in this policy even as the convention that will give president XI another term is just a fortnight away when I got to do quarter after quarter after court of all these type forecasts I kept I keep seeing that China's way on earnings like at Anvil that goes for many of the stocks that rally today hard to see how they can keep running what happens next well look at what's happened after every other one-day rally analysts come in tomorrow morning and they cut estimates they slash price targets and they downgrade stocks Galore especially Tech can't think of a reason this time would be different not after we just had that horrible Micron number last week then there's the biggest real issue our economy we have what I've been calling you wfh problem here and that's not work from home we have a problem with wages with food and housing inflation not one of them has changed from say uh last week perhaps we had a weaker employment number on Friday one that shows no meaningful wage growth that would certainly justify the rally or maybe the unemployment rate went from 3.7 to 4 that would allow the FED to back off too but I think we'll have hourly wage earnings and no real change in unemployment but we're going to wage growth no change employment well that's going to make a mockery of today's rally food it's only gotten worse there's a huge fertilizer shortage developing because so much comes from Russia Ukraine and Belarus now we have a wave of bird flu that's forcing to kill millions of chickens transport costs remain too high finally housing hasn't resolved itself either as is the case so often with these aggregate numbers housing has fallen year over year it looks very encouraging but it's still up usually from before the pandemic we have tons of bidding works for homes all over the country and while most of the Commodities that go into our houses have indeed come down the home builders talk endlessly about how difficult it is to find help and I'll have to pay up to do so that's not what the FED one to hear the good news for the stock market we're getting reports that home builders are trying to offload as many homes as possible at discount prices given the newly High mortgage rates I think housing inflation will soon be beaten but the bad news real estate's inherently local and there are many areas where we simply don't have enough homes even with seven percent mortgage rates own by the way let's not forget that the one commodity that had been cooperating oil soared today ahead of this week's OPEC plus meeting if crude climbs for more than one day we're going to hear that Trump beat and it will crush the rally that you saw today the bottom line Ukraine China wfh inflation have only gotten worse now oil's going the wrong way too doesn't mean there's no hope does mean that we're merely experiencing a textbook over sole rally and as we told club members members of the CMC investing club that I want you to join as we get less and less oversold we will delightedly raise cash and get ready for the next downturn let's go to Dan in California Dan hello Jim greetings hey very much appreciate your great show and advice ah you're terrific thank you buddy what's up hey there IBM hey I'm a true blue believer in the company with this great dividend however the strength strength time should I buy hold or sell you know what you're a wise man Dan because it's exactly what I'm worried about it's why I am not going to stake my reputation right now right here uh on the earnings forecast given the fact that so much of the business is overseas why don't we wait why don't we wait the stock has been hammered it could go lower Eduardo and Maryland Eduardo hola gems how you doing man I'm doing fine how about you Eduardo good man I've been watching you since 2005 and I'm also a club member okay thank you I want people to join the club we got some good stuff coming what's going on hey man I have a portfolio position a fast food company I purchased it as a recession play Given how well they did during the last recession so now with the dollar strengthening and potentially impacting overseas earnings should I hold sell or buy more McDonald's I happen to like McDonald's stock very much it did trade in the 220s and if it gets back there then I would indeed pull the trigger I think you've nailed it there is some dollar worries but otherwise I think it's terrific hey let's go local let's go to Greg in New Jersey Greg Kim this is Greg from Lawrenceville New Jersey my stock is Coca-Cola KO buy seller hold okay there are people worried about the strong Dollar in Coca-Cola I think that that is misplaced I think it's totally factored in Cocoa yields three James Quincy is doing an amazing job I think the stock is a bye-bye all right we're experiencing what I regard as a technical Governor sold rally I'm not sure it will have legs oh man money today October is breast cancer awareness month so I'm checking in with one player focused on making Women's Health a top priority do do not miss my exclusive with whole lodging then there's a new oil play on the street so is Permian resources the best way to play the exploration production space I'll give you my take and right here we have money celebrating Hispanic Heritage Month by talking to agua media to learn more about how 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