저자: CathieWood · 외국인
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양자컴퓨팅 위협론에 대해 40년간 과장된 주장이 많았다며 회의적이지만, AI 발전 속도는 빨라 위험을 가볍게 볼 수 없다고 언급. 블록체인 보안성과 비트코인 준비 상태를 논의. 비트코인 옵션 만기(약 2만 계약, 명목 19.3억 달러)와 풋콜비율 0.68(콜 우위)을 소개. 이더리움 3.4% 상승, 비트코인 도미넌스 58% 하회로 알트코인 강세 가능성 언급. 기관 채택 전망으로 2030년 비트코인 시나리오(베어 1%, 불 6.5%) 제시. 로버트 기요사키는 2025년 비트코인 17.5만~35만 달러 전망, 탐 리는 25만 달러, 마이크 노보그래츠는 15만 달러 전망을 소개.
다듬은 글
uh, you know, I've been in the business generally for more than 40 years and very focused always on technology. And for the last 40-ish years, quantum computing has always been 20 years away, right? And we really hadn't seen much progress at all. So I've been skeptical of anyone who proposes that it's about to transform anything.
Bitcoin, Zel joins Cathie Wood as she dives into the question: is quantum computing a threat to Bitcoin? Uncover insights on post-quantum cryptography, Bitcoin's preparedness, and its evolving role in the global financial system. Let's catch her up.
But I will say AI has been a wake-up call from this point of view. AI has certainly been around in science fiction, but they've been working on it for 50, 60 years plus. Recently, though, the breakthroughs have been so dramatic, Transformer architecture and generative AI, that it is slowly, slowly, then all at once. So I just want to make sure we're thinking about this correctly. I don't want to dismiss any possibilities, because I do think technologies are moving ahead faster and faster.
I would love to know from these esteemed experts, on technology and blockchain technology in particular, Bitcoin in particular, whether they see any risks. They're working deeply in it, right in the thick of it, and I'm sure they're worried all the time about what could go wrong. That's why Bitcoin is the most secure network out there.
Rod, maybe I could step back one more step from the question you asked. For our listeners who probably aren't as familiar with the technology around Bitcoin and what quantum computing's threat is, maybe we can set that up a little so people understand why this threat surfaces every now and then. The reason I ask is that the first major Bitcoin options expiry of 2025 is set to unfold today, with approximately 20,000 contracts expiring, holding a notional value of $1.93 billion. This event, while substantial, pales compared to last week's massive year-end expiry, suggesting a more muted impact on Bitcoin's spot market.
Over the past two weeks, Bitcoin has been trading sideways, hovering near the $97,000 level as traders eagerly await the market's reaction. The options contracts expiring today reveal a put/call ratio of 0.68, indicating a higher number of bullish call positions than bearish puts. The highest open interest is at strike prices of $120,000 and $110,000, reflecting bullish sentiment among derivatives traders. Deribit reported an optimistic trend in perpetual swaps, echoing pre-downturn market signals. Meanwhile, Ethereum joins the spotlight, with 205,000 contracts worth $710 million also expiring today. As crypto markets hold steady, Bitcoin remains poised, eyeing the crucial $100,000 resistance level.
So is this flurry of publicity around quantum and so forth going to change what you do on a day-to-day basis? As core developers, in terms of getting ready for the future? I'm back to the last question I asked. You're on watch and looking at all of this, and there are ways to work around the challenges that quantum computing will bring. We put our big ideas in, you know, the institutional opportunity by 2030. Our range was a bear case of 1% and a bull case of six and a half percent, and frankly, the middle part, the base case, was around four or five percent. So we're on track. We wrote our first paper, "Bitcoin ringing the bell for a new asset class," in 2020, so we've been waiting for this moment. It couldn't have happened without all of you, obviously.
The Bitcoin brainstorm we're doing has also been very important for a lot of people who really want to understand what they own. When a controversy like quantum comes up, we want to tackle it and convey that you're on it. Obviously we can't do anything about it ourselves, but knowing that you've been thinking about it for years, and that you might do something about it, is interesting. For me, the most enlightening moment of this call is Lightning coming to life, which I love. We've been waiting for that for a long time, so I'm very, very happy to hear that.
Ethereum's price saw a significant uptick on January 2, surging 3.4% to approach the $3,500 mark for the first time since December 19. The rally pushed the cryptocurrency above its 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) on the daily chart, recovering from a dip below the indicator last week. This upward momentum reflects broader optimism in the crypto market, as Bitcoin reclaimed the $96,000 level and other major altcoins like XRP and Solana also posted impressive gains.
A notable factor in Ethereum's rise is the drop in Bitcoin dominance, which fell below 58% for the first time in two weeks. This decline suggests a shift in market dynamics, with altcoins gaining ground against Bitcoin and fueling talk of an "altcoin season." Futures traders have also contributed to the bullish sentiment, with rising funding rates indicating strong interest in long positions. Technically, Ethereum is forming a bullish ascending triangle pattern targeting a breakout above $3,500. A successful close above this level could propel Ethereum toward $4,000, a potential 15% gain. Market confidence continues to grow as Ethereum's exchange reserves decline, signaling increased demand from spot buyers and further boosting the altcoin outlook.
Robert Kiyosaki, author of *Rich Dad Poor Dad*, has unveiled an ambitious Bitcoin price prediction for 2025, suggesting the cryptocurrency could surge to between $175,000 and $350,000. His bold forecast follows Bitcoin's extraordinary performance in 2024, when it skyrocketed 121% and reached a record high of $108,135 in December. Currently trading at around $97,572, Bitcoin has captured market attention as it edges closer to the pivotal $100,000 mark.
Kiyosaki's predictions come with a mix of enthusiasm and contradiction. Despite claiming in November that he would stop buying Bitcoin above $100,000, he later urged followers to accumulate more as prices climbed. His shifting stance underscores the unpredictable nature of crypto markets. Meanwhile, other experts like Tom Lee of Fundstrat and Mike Novogratz of Galaxy predict Bitcoin could hit $250,000 and $150,000 respectively, driven by factors like institutional adoption and the potential establishment of a US Bitcoin Reserve.
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