저자: MarkMobius · 외국인
요약 보기
글로벌 증시의 최근 반등이 단순한 기술적 반등(릴리프 랠리)이라기보다 비교적 지속될 수 있다는 견해다. 유동성 측면: 연준의 긴축으로 통화량 감소 추세는 이어지겠지만 올해 초보다는 완만할 것이며, 고금리 예금·채권으로 자금이 이동하면서 일부 자금이 주식시장으로 유입되고 있다고 설명했다. 경기 측면: 미국 정부의 우주, 반도체 등 분야 지출이 많아 경기가 시장 예상보다 양호하며, 고용도 양호한 수준이라고 평가했다. 은행 리스크: 최근 은행 문제는 금리 상승으로 장기채 평가손실이 생겨 예금 인출 공포가 커진 것이며, 연준의 대규모 지원으로 해소된 상태라고 봤다. 이는 경기 건강성과는 무관하다는 입장이다. 시장 전망: 주식시장은 경기를 선반영하며 이미 금리 충격에 대한 조정을 거쳤고, 횡보하며 회복하는 모습은 올해 경기가 비교적 괜찮을 것이라는 기대를 반영한다고 해석했다. 다만 경기 확신은 완전하지 않다는 단서를 달았다.
다듬은 글
Perhaps you could start by explaining what's going on with this pullback rally we're seeing across global equities. From the lows of March we've had a significant rally, and all around there's been so much gloom and pessimism. What do you think is going on here?
Well, it's all about money supply. As you know, the Fed in the US has been trying to pull back on money supply, and they've been doing that by raising interest rates. But in the meantime, there's still an awful lot of money left out there. One of the things that's happening is that people are finding that with higher interest rates, they can put their money to work in fixed deposit instruments and bonds, which are paying higher rates. And this extra cash they receive can also go into the stock market. So it's really a kind of respite from what's been happening with money supply. We expect money supply to continue to decline, but not at the rate it was earlier this year.
So would you classify this as a relief rally, or something more durable than that?
I wouldn't necessarily call it a relief rally. I would say we're in better shape than a lot of people think, simply because the US government is spending an awful lot of money on things like space, semiconductors, and a number of other areas. So I think that means the economy is a lot better than people imagined. And as you know, employment is at a good level.
So you're not in the camp that believes the US economy is hurtling toward a pretty bad recession? Over the last couple of months, the news from the banking sector led people to believe that such bank failures typically occur before the US goes into recession. Do you think that's the wrong way to think about it?
No. The bank problems were simply the result of interest rates going up. The banks were holding long-term maturity bonds that were losing value, and a panic was created by the fear that these banks would not be able to make good on their deposits. That's over now. The Fed has moved in very aggressively to help the banks and has supplied money to the market to ensure that happens. That has nothing to do with the health of the economy. The health of the economy is really based on what's happening in industry and the service industries as well. With the government spending an awful lot of money in a number of directions and unemployment at a relatively low level, we think the US economy will do fairly well this year.
Would that translate into a positive return from the stock market, do you think? Because even as of last month, most analysts seemed to believe this would be a difficult year to make any kind of positive return from equities.
Well, the stock market actually reacts ahead of what's happening in the economy. They were expecting a downturn as a result of these interest rate problems, so the market has already had this correction. Going forward, the market is telling us it's not completely certain the economy will do well, but it's certainly not telling us the economy is doing badly. You can see the market has recovered a little, and there's a sort of sideways movement, which indicates that the expectation is the economy will do fairly well going forward.
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