저자: RayDalio · 외국인
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레이 달리오는 과거 실패 경험이 의사결정 방식을 바꿨다고 말한다. 1980년대 초 신흥국 부채위기를 예측했으나 주가와 경기는 오히려 상승해 큰 손실을 봤고, 이후 겸손과 아이디어 메리토크라시의 필요성을 깨달았다고 한다. 핵심은 '급진적 투명성'과 '알고리즘 의사결정'이다. 회의를 거의 모두 녹음해 모두가 볼 수 있게 하고, 원칙을 기록해 알고리즘으로 만들어 컴퓨터와 함께 의사결정하면 더 나은 결과를 얻는다고 주장한다. 그는 이 방식이 감정적으로 어렵고 모든 사람에게 맞지는 않으며, 약 25~30%의 사람만 적응한다고 본다. 다만 약 18개월이면 대다수가 불투명한 환경보다 이를 선호하게 된다고 말한다. 투자 측면에서는 성공적인 투자자가 되려면 컨센서스에 반대하면서 맞아야 한다고 강조한다. 다만 이 영상에는 특정 종목·자산에 대한 앞으로 1~3개월 가격 방향 예측이 등장하지 않는다. 출연자 전망은 개인 삶과 업무에서 투명성과 알고리즘 의사결정이 확산되어 삶을 바꿀 것이며 긍정적일 것이라는 장기적 견해다.
다듬은 글
and I had lost so much money that I had to borrow four thousand dollars from my dad to help to pay my family bills it was one of the most painful experiences of my life but it turned out to be one of the greatest experience of my life because it changed my attitude about decision making rather than thinking I'm right I started to ask myself how do I know I'm right whether you like it or not radical transparency and algorithmic decision making is coming at you fast and it's going to change your life that's because it's now easy to take algorithms and embed them into computers and gather all that data that you're leaving on yourself all over the place and know what you're like and then direct the computers to interact with you in ways that are better than most people can well that might sound scary I've been doing this for a long time and I have found it to be wonderful my objective has been to have meaningful work and meaningful relationships with the people I work with and I've learned that I couldn't have that unless I had that radical transparency and that algorithmic decision making I want to show you why that is I want to show you how it works and I warn you that some of the things that I'm going to show you probably are a little bit shocking since I was a kid I've had a terrible rote memory and I didn't like falling instructions I was no good at following instructions but I love to figure out how things work for myself when I was 12 I hated school but I fell in love with trading the markets I carried at the time earned about five dollars a bag and I took my catting money and I put it in the stock market and that was just because the stock market was hot at the time and the first company I bought was a company by the name of Northeast Airlines Northeast Airlines was the only company I heard of that was selling for less than five dollars a share and I figured I could buy more shares and if it went up I'd make more money so that was a dumb strategy right but I tripled my money I tripled my money because I got lucky the company was about to go bankrupt that some other company acquired it and I tripled my money and I was hooked and I thought this game is easy with time I learned this game as anything but easy in order to Be an Effective investor one has to bet against the consensus and be right and it's not easy to bet against the consensus and be right one has to bet against the consensus and be right because the consensus is built into the price and in order to be an entrepreneur a successful entrepreneur one has to bet against the consensus and be right I had to be an entrepreneur and an investor and what goes along with that is making a lot of painful mistakes so I made a lot of painful mistakes and with time my attitude about those mistakes began to change I began to think of them as puzzles that if I could solve the puzzles they would give me gems and the puzzles were what would I do differently in the future so I wouldn't make that painful mistake and the gems were principles that I would then write down so I would remember them that would help me in the future and because I wrote them down so clearly I could then eventually discovered I could then embed them into algorithms and those algorithms would be embedded in computers and the computers would make decisions along with me and so in parallel we would make these decisions and I could see how those decisions then compared with my own decisions and I could see that those decisions were a lot better and that was because the computer could make decision decisions much faster it could process a lot more information and it can process decisions much more less emotionally so it radically improved my decision making eight years after I started Bridgewater I had my greatest failure my greatest mistake it was it was late 1970s I was 34 years old and I had calculated that American Banks had lent much more money to emerging countries than those countries were going to be able to pay back and that we would have the greatest debt crisis since the Great Depression and with it an economic crisis and a big bear Market in stocks it was a controversial View at the time people thought it was kind of a crazy point of view but in August 1982 Mexico defaulted on its debt and a number of other countries followed and we had the greatest debt crisis since the Great Depression and because I had anticipated that I was asked to testify to Congress and appear on Wall Street week which was the show of the time I mean while the debt crisis happened the stock market and the economy went up rather than going down and I lost so much money for my for myself and my for my clients that I had to shut down my operation pretty much I had to let almost everybody go these were like extended family and it was heartbroken I gained a humility that I needed in order to balance with my audacity I wanted to find the smartest people who would disagree with me to try to understand their perspective or to have them stress test my perspective I wanted to make an idea meritocracy in other words not an autocracy in which I would lead and others would follow and not a democracy in which everybody's points of view were equally valued but I wanted to have an idea of meritocracy in which the best ideas would win out and in order to do that I realized that we would need radical truthfulness and radical transparency what I mean by radical truthfulness and radical transparency is people needed to say what they really believed and to see everything I mean we literally tape almost all conversations and let everybody see everything because if we didn't do that we couldn't really have an idea Merit to meritocracy in order to have a idea meritocracy we have to let people speak and say what they want so what's the problem with being radically truthful and radically transparent with each other people say it's emotionally difficult critics say it's a formula for a brutal work environment neuroscientists tell me it has to do with how our brains are pre-wired there's a part of our brain that would like to know our mistakes and like to look at our weaknesses so we could do better I'm told that that's the prefrontal cortex and then there's a part of our brain which views all of this as a tax until I'm told that that's the amygdala in other words there are two U's inside you there's an emotional you and there's an intellectual you and often they're at odds and often they work against you it's been our experience that we can win this battle we win it as a group it takes about 18 months typically to find that most people prefer operating this way with this radical transparency than to be operating in a more opaque environment there's not politics there's not the um the brutality of you know all of that hidden behind the scenes there's an idea meritocracy where people can speak up and that's been great it's given us more effective work and it's given us more effective relationships but it's not for everybody we found something like 25 or 30 percent of the population it's just not four and by the way when I say radical transparency I'm not saying transparency without everything I mean you don't have to tell somebody that their bald spot is growing where they're babies ugly so you I'm just talking about talking about the important things so so when you leave this room I'd like you to observe yourself in conversations with others imagine if you knew what they were really thinking and imagine if you knew what they were really like and imagine if they knew what you were really thinking and what you were really like it would certainly clear things up a lot and make your operations together more effective I think it'll improve your relationships now imagine that you could have algorithms that will help you gather all that information and even help you make decisions on either in an idea meritocratic way this sort of radical transparency is coming at you and it is going to affect your life and in my opinion it's going to be wonderful so I hope it is as wonderful for you as it is for me
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