원문 보기
neil is it cheeping even if we have a no deal breaks it I think it is yes a lot of that's already priced it so we've all seen the headlines before this stock is cheap that stock is cheap what is it exactly that makes a stop cheap let me give you an example I'm gonna put three stocks on the screen right now which one of these three stocks is genius no no no that's what I thought you said oh you have another question okay that's enough oh that's enough talking from you the answer is Google that's good to be honest with you that was a pretty easy one it seems like you pretty much know what we're gonna be going over today so why don't you tell him how you knew that did he just leave to go watching the n cat ten hours not you though you're gonna stay and hit the thumbs up button you know help me out with my watch time a little bit you know learned something today that was a weird intro but I'm kind of a weird guy and you'll get used to it but welcome back to the channel you'll laugh you'll cringe you'll learn something hopefully you'll learn something hopefully hopefully you'll laugh you might just cringe as you can see top of the day is how to value a stock like Warren Buffett we're gonna be going over two concepts that are in this book here this book is about 500 pages and I probably won't read it to you in this 10 to 15 minute video but if you want to see that two-hour video coming soon the concepts that we're gonna go over today are gonna help you invest within what Warren Buffett called the margin of safety essentially what the margin of safety is goal is to do is to put you in the best position to make gains over time not making these speculative a wild rides that a lot of people like to take and things like Bitcoin and other types of very speculative investments not downing those things if that's what you do if you're a trader do your trading thing the margin of safety is going to let us make those gains over time and just be patient hang in there like he has and just build wealth over time so we can have a wonderful adult life and retirement let's pop over to the notes here and we'll see what terms we're gonna be going over today and why they are important things that we're going to be examining in our story today are a financial condition that debt levels earning stability capital returns which is basically giving it money back to the shareholders earnings growth and a price to earnings ratio under the industry average the book recommends a 15 price earnings ratio in today's day and age my personal preference is to invest in companies that have a price to earnings ratio underneath the industry average a little bit hard in today's market to find companies with a price to earnings ratio under 15 unless they're in serious trouble so typically with those companies you want to look into those very carefully and see what's going on in the hood because something very drastically bad could be going wrong with that company so without further ado let's get into this story so picture this you're running a lemonade stand you've got one let's call him Billy I know that's not his real name but you're a capitalist now it has nothing to do with how to value a stock but this is my story Billy is able to sell a hundred dollars of lemonade a day you work Billy's 365 days a year so he brings in a total of thirty six thousand five hundred dollars in profits so now we've got our first term revenue even the fact that our business is doing so much revenue per year people should be willing to pay a certain amount for this business in theory if the business were to double its revenue people should be willing to pay twice that amount but that doesn't quite paint the full picture because we still haven't paid our employee after paying our employee $17.80 a day we come out with a nice round number of $30,000 this is our second term this is our profit now stay with me this weird story is going somewhere I promised every public company has a valuation that determines how expensive the company is as a whole this is called the market capitalization if you take the entire market capitalization and divide it by the shares outstanding or how many stops there are in the market that's how you get the stock price so you've got two things you've got price and we've got profits or earnings if we take those and put them together we've got a price to earnings ratio the question you should be asking yourself when you're looking at a price to earnings ratio is what am I willing to pay for ownership of these earnings and it's for that reason that in and of itself a higher price earnings ratio is actually a bad thing because you're paying more for fewer earnings I've had a lot of people come up to me and say like oh look at this Amazon it's got like a hundred price earnings ratio that's so high it's great I'm gonna buy in because they see Amazon's a great company and it has a high price earnings ratio but that's because people are willing to pay more for those earnings because they're growing at such a rapid rate we'll get into that a little bit so if we follow the tenants that were laid out in Benjamin Graham's book that Warren Buffett follows we want to get into the stock for under fifteen price to earnings ratio in other words if you owned 100 percent of the stock and 100 percent of the company the earnings would replace the price that you paid within 15 years assuming they don't go up or down it's pretty decent deal right on the other hand if you got a price earning ratio of a hundred those earnings are gonna take 100 years to replace the price so let's get back into our lemonade stand to purchase the lemonade stand making thirty thousand dollars in profits each year at a price earnings ratio of fifteen or under we would want to purchase a lemonade stand for a price of four hundred and fifty thousand dollars or less if I happen to be choosing between two different lemonade stands using only this method I can start to see which one is the cheapest but that seems pretty easy right it's easy to value stocks you just figure out which one is cheapest well not exactly that is the easy part but the rest is more of an art than a science because when you're buying a company for cheaper or more expensive you need to ask yourself the question why and this is where investing gets a little bit more complicated this is where things get a little bit more complicated so let's talk about current assets in Benjamin Graham's book he recommends that you have at least 1.5 times current assets compared to current liabilities on the assets side we're talking cash and cash equivalents things that can immediately pay off debts and obligations and on the current liability side we're talking about debts that are going to be due this year let's go back to our lemonade stand let's say we want to start growing so we take out a fifteen thousand dollar one-year loan to prop up more lemonade stands in theory we should increase our earning potential but this introduces risk into the business however we've got thirty thousand dollars on the balance sheet from last year and the value of the first stand is five hundred dollars therefore our current assets are thirty thousand and five hundred dollars in the event that we needed to pay off our current liabilities our current assets are two times the amount approximately of the debt that we just took out if anyone were coming to purchase our questionably run child business they would come and they would see our balance sheet and they would see that there's a really loud a lawnmower right outside my door right now he's in there just gonna keep going so I'm just gonna keep going if anyone were coming to purchase our lemonade stand they would see that we have twice as many assets as liabilities and they would say hey this is a pretty safe business in addition to above a 1.5 current ratio this book also recommends that your debt and not be more than 110 percent of your current assets we make the bill for that recommendation because our current assets are 200% of our current liabilities all right what are we missing I promised you something else capital returns so basically what capital returns are is they could be in the form of dividends or share buybacks it's basically the company taking of the money that they brought in and giving it back to the shareholders either in the form of buying back shares which essentially means there are fewer shares on the market when you buy more shares companies buy back shares the company is still worth about the same amount but there are fewer shares outstanding so the people that retain their shares their shares are worth more now whereas a dividend is a monthly quarterly sometimes semi-annually sometimes annually cash disbursement to the investors in the company all right and the last thing I want to do is just go over it the thing that is going to blow your mind and make you understand the nuance in investing and that is that not all earnings are created equal one of benjamin graham's tenants is earning stability so here with our company we're a brand-new startup we don't have it really any earning stability what he recommends is that you pick companies that have been growing over the past five to ten years basically he wants to see earnings that are increasing year over year what that's basically going to do is ensure that you're going to continue to grow your investment over time and you're going to continue to see increasing capital returns over time so let's talk about growth let's say this stock a is selling at a purchase price of $10 and earnings per share is $1 a stock B is selling at a price of $10 and earnings per share is also $1 during year 0 each stock has a price to earnings ratio of 10 stocke a is growing earnings at 100 percent whereas stock B is growing earnings at 10 percent after year one stock a has a Christ's earnings ratio of five a $10 price and a $2.00 earnings stock B has a price to earnings ratio of nine point zero nine at a price of $10 and one dollar and ten cents and earnings purely based upon buying under fifteen p/e it now makes sense to buy stock a up to thirty dollars in stock B up to a price of sixteen fifty knowing this investors will pay more initially for companies that they know are growing revenues however when prices get bit up to a certain amount there's a diminishing return on your investment so to recap you got to think about how much you're paying you got to think about growth you gotta think about earning stability and just generally the condition of the company as a whole hopefully you guys enjoyed the video if you did make sure you give it a like comment something down below I'll see you guys in the comments section and I'll see you guys in the next one you
댓글 0