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Ray Delio is here he's the founder of of Bridgewater chairman chief investment officer um we're always thrilled to see you and spend time with you here in Davos and uh always get your ideas about where you think uh the market is and how the machine you've always talked about the machine and your principles uh work right now so um where are you so I think we let's let's particularly talk about the us but I think it's generally true of the world we are in this Goldilocks period right now in which um we have had a beautiful deleveraging the inflation isn't a problem growth is good everything is pretty good with a big jolt of stimulation coming from the changes in tax laws and and such that is going to at the part of the cycle we're at the later part of the cycle so if you look at the operating rates and you look at the GDP Gap and measures we're going to have a a jolt of stimulation into that um and there's a lot of cash on the sidelines I don't mean just investor cash I think banks have a lot of cash corporations have a lot of cash so we're going to be I think in undated with cash I think that that's going to produce a lot of stimulation and I think um perhaps a market blowoff in other words uh we're in a situation where if you're holding cash you're going to feel pretty stupid and and with that everybody is going to become more deployed classically this is late cycle behavior and as you get that movement then the interesting question is how does the Federal Reserve react or how do other central banks react I think it's a very difficult thing to get monetary policy precise that's why we have recessions because you never can get it exactly right I think it's particularly difficult to get it right now because of the fact that uh with interest rates so low all assets the Pres trade at the present value of the future cash flow so interest rates affect all assets because the duration of um bonds and debt lengthened it just takes a little change in interest rates to have a bare market and so the things that we look at are in terms of the tightening of monetary policy will it be tighter than is discounted in the curve right we have a very small amount of tightening which is built into the curve if it is greater and interest rates right are greater that can affect all asset prices but you're not necessarily talking about four moves instead of three you're talking about something a little greater greater than a quarter percentage point off right um it's all a matter of degree right we are entering that part of the cycle right that last part of the cycle that last part of the cycle I think can last a year um but I would say when we come back here next year probably when we're dealing it the issue of the preciseness of monetary policy the delicacy is going to be a particular issue so I think that what I think you're going to get um a reaction I think that the FED should think about how much of it is this jolt to stimulation and they should let it go that the notion of inflation worry um what is the problem with inflation there's struggling to get it to 2% all the central banks are struggling to get it to 2% we're not going to probably even hit a core inflation rate of 2% because there are other things that are happening in the economy so let it go enjoy it but probably were entering the last then you got to get the but if this is the last if this is the if this is the last leg not only does the FED have to get it right you as the investor have to know when to be in and then clearly when to be out that's my game right I mean that's right I got to know it we all got to know it so we need to recalibrate what we think is is a high interest rate and what is a low interest rate because even if like historically I'm I'm just conditioned to think that I don't know I'm used to six and 7% so this time 5% could be high and that could be enough to to dislocate we need to rec I think I think to calibrate it you have to ask what does it mean for asset prices first and then what does it mean for economic activity if you look at asset prices um if they're all calculated as the present value of future cash flows so if the bond market goes down to put that in perspective if there's 140 basis point rise and bond yields you will have the greatest bare Market in bonds ever that the biggest bare Market because and and when you do though we're still at a relatively low level historically you can't you can't have a significant rise in interest rates without knocking over the whole asset markets all markets private Equity Real Estate everything in terms of markets is trading at cap rates or yields that are very low if all of a sudden you raise the discount rate on that they're all going to go down right so you have sensitivity from asset prices the average increase in the tightening cycle has been about 500 basis points I don't think you can have 100 or 125 basis points from here without knocking it over the same thing is true just about a fine point on it Joe mentioned 5% you're talking 4% potentially like four yeah I I I don't think you can get yeah okay and then so for for asset prices and then if you look at the nature of there has been a leveraging up of a many parts of the company corporations um the return on Equity was high relative to the return on cash so the typical companies leveraged two to two and a half times what they were before now did they get that right okay that's the the key thing so what you're going to have a sensitivity to that you're going to have you still have a fair amount of of debt so there's a lot of sensitivity much more sensitivity to interest rate changes than there has ever been ate on
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