저자: SashaYanshin · 외국인
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테슬라 기가텍사스 증설 발표는 실제 생산 램프 속도가 과대평가됐다고 주장. 기가상하이 3월말 이후 봉쇄로 2분기 생산·수출 차질(약 4만~4.5만대 감소 추정), 사이버트럭·세미 양산은 2023~2024년 이후로 지연 전망. 이에 따라 2분기 실적 우려와 주가 하락 가능성을 제기하며 하락 후 저가 매수 기회를 언급.
다듬은 글
hey guys it's sasha tesla held their cyber radio event to mark the opening of giga texas last night and it seemed like a great party and this morning everyone seems massively excited about tesla but there is a massive problem with tesla stock that everyone seems to be avoiding so i thought i would talk about it last night elon musk made a few announcements that really got the crowd excited and every tesla youtube channel is singing elon's praises the problem is if you dig a little deeper into the context of what was being said together with everything else that's happening around tesla i think the tesla shareholders could be in for a very rough couple of quarters ahead now first up elon musk mentioned the giga austin will ramp the model y production line to 500 000 units per year making it the highest capacity production line in the world we're aiming just with the model y program alone to get to half a million units a year and then we're going to start manufacturing cyber truck here next year and that is great the problem is that he also said that the cyber truck production will then start after the model y production is ramped and everyone was delighted about that but we are in april 2022 and giga austin has only just opened the tesla website currently has 572 different job roles available on their jobs website in austin and i am guessing that many of these roles require more than one person like this production associate one for example so tesla have thousands of people that they are yet to hire into that factory and after they do all that hiring which is going to take a while those thousands of people they'll then need to train them and after training those people will then need to build up some experience in order to run production now tesla is very good at production but this is going to take some time tesla has only recently started to ramp up the manufacturer of 4680 cells in austin all the footage you see here is from this factory because the model y cars coming out of austin use those 4680 cells in structural packs in addition to the 4680 cells that they're getting over from california and there was precious little said about the volume or the ramp of production of those cells elon just said that over time giga texas will become the biggest battery cell factory in the world but that makes it very difficult to gauge how effective the production line is right now or will be in the next few months and on top of that the global supply chain crisis is still here and the russian invasion of ukraine continues to affect raw material and energy prices now giga shanghai was only producing around 24 to 25 000 cars a month in giga shanghai in january and february 2021 well over a year after that factory opened and yes giga texas is much bigger and tesla have learnt a lot from building giga shanghai so the ramp should happen faster in austin and austin is also now tesla's global hq so naturally there will be probably some kind of co-location and synergy benefit to ramping 2 but the indicators are that at best if everything goes to plan perfectly and if giga texas ramps significantly faster than gage shanghai then tesla might be hitting their 500 000 cars a year run rate in texas maybe in q3 next year at the earliest so when we're talking cyber truck production the sound bite is that we'll only start talking about it or thinking about it at the end of next year and then there's the issue of building the cyber truck production line in the presentation elon musk showed a plan of gigger texas and he referred to it as the new all-in-one production facility which is much better in some ways than having a disparate set of different buildings that are responsible for different parts of the production line and in one way that is true however there is a little problem gigatexas has two levels with the battery production upstairs remember the aim is to create the biggest battery cell production factory in the world there and downstairs is where the cars are made there are some parts of upstairs that are used as well and you can see that just over three quarters of the factory is being used for this production line that will eventually produce five hundred thousand model wise and maybe they can apply the same approach as they do to shanghai and manufacture model threes on the same ish production line and this is a really big production line so the likelihood is that the 500 000 per year mark is also somewhat conservative but the cyber truck is a fundamentally different product the construct is entirely different the materials use the difference of the casting and assembly processes are entirely different could they go and build a parallel production line in the same space following the same route through the factory for the cyber truck well maybe that is the plan but based on the drone videos of the inside the current layout i'd say that it is quite unlikely they will probably want to have a dedicated space for it this thing here marked future production looks like the place reserved for the cyber drug but by all accounts the cyber truck production process will require at least as much space for the major hard manufacturing components stamping and body in particular as the model y and those bits alone will take up the bulk of that future production space i am guessing that the battery drive units and paint shop could in theory be used for both production lines but i am not sure if they will support the additional capacity because especially the paint shop is going to be in some way limited on that front plus the drive unit and general assembly parts mean that the paint job is separated from the future production line as it stands the bit where the cyber trucking theory would be made so it's possible they will set a part of the production line upstairs and route it that way and use both floors but to me it sounds more likely that tesla will wait to expand the current facility to phase two before building out the cyber drug production line based on the layout that they have confirmed and they haven't even started work on that yet at all so if that is the case then the cyber truck is absolutely not coming this year obviously we know that not coming in 2023 probably will struggle to come in 2024 so we're looking quite a long way out and then there's the tesla semi also apparently going to be manufactured in texas rather than nevada which is where the prototype trucks were built and they showed off the truck during the presentation and had a live version of it but there was a lot of noise at the back of last year that the release of the semi was imminent the pepsi ceo in an interview on cnbc even said that they're expecting deliveries any day and they even build a special supercharger at their facility for those new semis but we're now being told that 2023 is the target year for the semi so we are way out and that will almost certainly need a new phase to be built so it sounds like the semi is probably not going to be there in 2023 so we're looking at at least 24 or 25 for that as well and here is the issue giga shanghai has been closed since 28th of march because of a complete lockdown in shanghai and remains closed as i'm recording this video unconfirmed reports say it will stay closed until at least the 18th of april that is 18 days in april and another four days at the end of march that the factory has been shut that is a long period of time and remember the factory was also closed for two days in the middle of march in addition to that this is very significant because the 22 days of delay before those two additional times is about 24 percent of the quarterly volume coming out of giga shanghai and to tell you that is going to be about 40 to 45 000 cars down for q2 compared to their previous run rate and given that tesla made 310 000 cars globally in q1 in total that 40 to 45 000 is going to be very noticeable when the q numbers are published but it's even worse than that because in the first two months of the quarter giga shanghai predominantly makes cars for export so in april and may those will be the months when export cars are produced in shanghai and then shipped out and then june's production is sold locally in china the export cars are loaded onto ships and those ships take a few weeks to go and get to europe to australia wherever they're going so the hit on production at the beginning of the quarter means that those cars are not going to be reaching their european buyers this quarter this is critical even if tesla restarts the production at the end of april we're going to have a massive shortfall on deliveries for the quarter in europe as a result so production numbers will be down but delivery numbers based on this assessment are probably going to be down even more especially because the factory closure started at the end of march when the initial work and the components for cars that will then be manufactured in april would have already started if the 18th of april does hold and there are no further delays we're still going to probably lose another day or two for the restart of the machines and the process that was down for three weeks but shanghai's lockdown seems to only be getting worse the zero covert policy in china means that the immunity levels are low and the number of cases is still spiraling so there is every chance that the shanghai factory will be closed beyond the 18th of april deadline which will make this problem only worse now gigabilin has started production a few days ago and opened up publicly but only has a reported run rate of about 500 cars a week at the moment maybe gradually rumping from that but we're probably looking at three to five thousand cars a month at best towards the end of the quarter on the 20th of april we have tesla's q1 results and those results will probably be okay slightly up on q4 by the way i will be covering them live on this channel so if you want a bit of analysis and a bit of commentary as they come out make sure you subscribe and make sure you're there on the 20th after markets close but i actually think that the stock market will not care for what the q1 results look like because that is not even that important right now the important bit will come in the q a at the end when inevitably somebody is going to ask for some specifics on production numbers and then tesla will either have to dodge the question which won't look good by itself or they'll have to go and come out and say that q2 production numbers are significantly down and that is going to be waving the red flag to the bull because that alone is going to be a trigger because tesla happens to be a company that many people love to hate especially in the media then at the beginning of may beginning of june and beginning of july we're going to have the monthly updates on china production and sales in those two reports that come out and we're going to begin seeing the big drop in those numbers come through and we'll already know that it's coming and then we'll get the quarterly total production numbers probably on the 2nd of july and that's when we're going to see that drop i'm guessing a drop of 20 to 30 000 cars if they ramp up production in fremont and if they would get this small additional number of cars coming out of berlin and austin so maybe something like 290 000 cars produced for the quarter but on top of that we're going to have the ongoing updates about the cyber truck and the semi that will more apparently not be coming anytime soon and very possibly still be two to three years out at best and this shanghai log down will also mean this is a crucial point that nobody seems to be talking about that the extension to the factory that was due to be completed at the end of april is now on hold and has been on hold and that extension will probably now be pushed out to june or july and even then when the extension is complete the shanghai factory has to shut down again to re-reach the internal production line using that extension then after that when 4680 production for tesla actually ramps whenever that may be maybe late on this year if everything goes well or probably at some point next year more likely whenever that happens shanghai will have to stop the factory again for another reported three weeks to move from using 2170 cells to 4680 cells and berlin is going to have to do the same thing because they have the same problem they started manufacturing with the old 2170 cell battery packs as well so the problem we're going to have is that despite berlin and austin ramping individually and potentially doing quite well we're going to have issues with production numbers that will be very public and the media are going to make a big deal out of it and an impact on the commercials is definitely going to come as well when we see the quarterly results and at the same time there will be a lack of clarity on any specifics around new models arriving there certainly is a massive lack of clarity on that right now because the deadlines keep being pushed out but no specifics are being given at all about where or how they're going to be manufactured and at the same time it is unclear when phase 2 development might start in berlin or austin because that phase 2 development is probably necessary for the semi in the cyber truck and when it does start it will take at least 18 months based on previous experiences with the three factories they have built for those to complete but probably more like 24 months and we still don't know where any new factories in new locations might be located tesla promised to announce that at some point this year so it's all good going up on stage and talking about extreme scale talking about robots and an age of abundance and all that good stuff but the reality i think is that tesla stock is likely to get hit relatively hard as projections suffer big time on the back of all of this happening the good news for those who understand that this is a short to medium term issue that doesn't have long term implications is that we might have a decent stretch of time to load up on tesla shares that will be priced lower as a result if you want to see my full tesla valuation model please feel free to check out this video right here where i go through it in detail thank you so much for watching i really really appreciate it and as always i'll see you guys later
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