저자: JimRogers · 외국인
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결론: 장기 구조적 비관론 — 미국은 정점을 지났고 명목 마이너스 금리와 부채 구조는 결국 큰 고통을 준다. 미국 경제·정책: 미국은 역사적으로 정점을 지났으며 해외 120여 개국 주둔 등으로 적대 관계가 늘고 있다. 명목 마이너스 금리는 역사상 없었고 작동하지 않으며, 회복기에 현실로 돌아가면 큰 고통이 온다. 증시·버블: S&P500은 기업 실적이 6분기 연속 하락했고 소수 대형주만 지수를 끌어올린다. 1929년급 고통이 우려되며 가장 나쁜 시기가 될 것이라 본다. 채권시장, 미국 대학 교육, 유럽 축구클럽 등 여러 버블이 존재하며 터지면 고통이 따른다. 기술주는 붐비지만 버블 여부는 명확히 판단하지 않았다. 원자재·농업: 로저스 상품지수의 농산물 비중은 세계 경제 현실을 반영한 것이며 투자 방향 의견과 무관하다. 농업은 장기적으로 호황과 불황이 반복되며 언젠가 다시 강해질 것이다. 중국: 중국이 부상 중이지만 미국과 마찬가지로 많은 문제와 실패를 겪을 것이다. 식품·건강: 유기농·자연식품 시장은 성장하겠지만 대중화되긴 어렵다. 비만 문제는 교육을 통해 소비 행태가 바뀌며 해결될 것이다. 투자 철학: 자신이 잘 아는 분야에만 투자하고, 뉴스는 여러 출처로 교차 검증하며, 대중의 통념은 거의 맞지 않는다고 강조.
다듬은 글
Mr Rogers it is a great honor having you here with us today lots of entrepreneurs are lost without a sense of direction and when you don't know what you don't know you suffer what would be your advice for our young listeners when they are trying to figure out what is it they are meant to be doing for the rest of their lives well the main thing is figure out your own passions figure out what you love don't listen to your parents your teachers your friends figure out what you love a lot everybody loves something you just have to sometimes you have to figure out what it is and sometimes people will laugh at you if you say you know what I want to be a gardener but people will say that's absurd but if that's what you want to do and you know it then you go and become a gardener you're going to be very happy the people who do what they love never go to work they wake up every day and start having fun and those are the people who are the most successful because they're doing what they love and they they know a lot about and even if they're if they're not successful there you go they don't care they're happy they're having too much fun to worry about it so the first thing is to do only what you love follow your passions if you're going to invest same thing only invest in what you yourself know a lot about don't listen to me don't listen to the TV the internet the newspapers just listen to what you yourself know a lot about you will know better than anybody else when something new is happening something's going to to succeed and that's how you invest if I told you you only have 25 investments in your life you would be very careful you wouldn't jump around you wouldn't jump in and out you would only invest when you knew you had a sure thing and that's how you become successful at life and in the market you are very successful so you enjoy every minute of it is this what you're saying well so far yes that doesn't mean that things don't come along every once in a while and and he calls me a setback uh but yes for the most part I'm quite quite pleased and satisfied successful people build on sound daily habits what was a daily Jim Rogers day when you were working at a Quantum fund well I never set my alarm plock because I wanted to be sure that when I got to I mean if I had to set it I would there was some kind of early meeting or something but I never set my alarm clot I I wanted to be sure that I woke up fully rested and then I could hardly wait to get to to the office uh I got down to the office and just started reading everything in sight and I often stayed till 10 11: at night I mean I often stayed very late at night because I love being there and I had to know everything Diego I felt I had to know everything in order to succeed because the world is always changing and what's true today may not be correct tomorrow so you you have to stay on top of everything but I love doing it it was a wonderful wonderful puzzle me against the world you Advocate working hard doing a thorough due diligence and getting to the botom of things does it become easier with time well Diego I don't work nearly as hard now as I used to partly because I do have a little bit of money also because I have two children now that I'd much rather spend my time with them than just about anything so I have I'm doing other things in life now now partly because I did make a little bit of money and so I I have the the the luxury the freedom to do other things and these two little children these two little girls are extremely important to me entrepreneurs get sidetracked sometimes and work on the wrong things so when you are working on a line of thought how long do you stick to it until you see that you must be ready to switch oh of course I said before the world is always changing everything we think to day is not going to be true in 15 years maybe not even in 15 minutes so no you have to constantly stay on top of everything and you have to constantly prod and check and look because things everybody makes mistakes especially me so yeah you have to double double check to make sure you haven't made a mistake everyone has strengths and weaknesses because if you are super creative you not might be very reliable and the other way around you might be super analytical but not be a creative person so because one comes with the other so do you work with the team on a certain Challenge and tackle it from different perspectives or you like doing it all by yourself I I'm pretty much a loner I do things myself I don't I don't uh rely on other people nearly every time I do rely on somebody else or get a a suggestion from someone else I lose money I I don't know why it is but I lose enough money on my own I don't need other people cuz they make me lose even more but you do have to keep checking prodding turning things over to be sure you're right one way I do that I try to read newspaper or news sources from more than one place if you read one newspaper you will pretty quickly learn they have their own biases but if you read four or five or get your news from four or five different sources you will find that many different points of view you put them together and maybe you'll come up with the right answer so you keep double-checking everything as you keep saying to yourself you might be wrong because this is the way that you are is this what you're saying certainly do I wish I I wish I did more sometimes but I certainly still do it I know what's what I'm supposed to do and I try to do it because you are the way you are and you know yourself and how you approach things right well I have been here before I've been doing this for 50 years so you know it's not some things I don't have to really start I know where Belgium is I know where Australia is I know where PO is I know what steel is you know a lot of things that I already have in my my own brain from 50 years of experience but that does so it cuts down some of the time that I used to have to put in long ago but I still have to put in time and effort we get this question a lot entrepreneurs are usually hire people because they don't have a lot of money and they don't develop their companies because they don't hire people can you share a thoughts on this one everybody has to find their own way Diego I I used to listen to other people as I told you partly because I thought well they're older they're more experienced they're probably smarter than me so I used to listen to a lot of people I don't do that anymore I explained before but everybody has to find their own way I know people who have big research departments or big staffs and they do very well having a lot of people working with them you have to find your own way don't follow me don't follow anybody figure out your own way and then you'll be successful usually smart people keep to themselves as they don't connect with people because they usually don't find lots of Common Ground were you like this when you were younger who knows what I did when I was young I made plenty of mistakes I still make plenty of mistakes uh as I said I would find things either by by reading or looking out the window or observing seeing something new or something changing and I then I would start trying to figure out what's Happening Here what has happened you must understand the past in order to understand the present and much less the future so I have to figure out what has been going on with this industry this company this person whatever and then I have to build the case to the present and then hopefully to the Future coming back to the economy it's becoming pretty clear that China is taking over we are also witnessing the rise of emerging econ economies like Nigeria what do you think will happen to the us as they keep printing money as a fixed s solution and also your thoughts on Europe well I don't particularly like saying this I'm an American citizen voter taxpayer Etc uh but America has Peak certainly on an uh ABS relative basis if not an absolute basis we are in the we're the largest de nation in the history of the world we have troops in over 120 countries which are not doing us any good they're making us uh enemies around the world so unfortunately America has seen its best days this has happened to many other countries in history Spain France England I mean the list goes on goes on and on and on so it's and it's happening to us now it will happen to other people in the future yes China China's On The Rise but China will have plenty of problems don't worry there'll be plenty of failures and problems in China as it rises just as they were in the United States can you share your thoughts on this concept of nominal negative indust rates well first of all it's never happened in history second it is not working it has not worked it's a little bit of a l ludicrous proposition if you ask me but many academics are ludicrous and bureaucrats are ludicrous uh it's not working it has not worked it's not going to work and when we start making the recovery going back to reality oh dieo we are all going to suffer very very badly looking at the sheer PE we can see that the S&P 500 is still in correction territory are we looking at 1929 levels well it's certainly going to be the worst In Our Lifetime uh there's no question about that I don't know you're comparing to 1929 history does Ryme it doesn't always repeat itself H but we're certainly going to have horrendous problems in the economy and and financial markets worldwide looking at the present state of the economy the tech is a pretty crowded place today do you think we are in bubble territory in the tech space also do you think people will start going back to the basics like agriculture well we're certainly having bubbles in various parts of the world economy the bond market American T college education there are a few bubbles European football clubs there a few bubbles around uh bubbles always pop one way or the other and people suffer when the current financial situation pops we're going to have serious problem I mean American the SNP standard and Poor 500 average has 500 companies they've had down earnings for six quarters now the stocks keep well a few a few a very few concentrated big companies keep going up which drags the averages up but everything you look at in the economy facts wise statistic wise we're having problems and they're getting worse looking at the Rogers Commodity index you have a large portion allocated to agriculture why is that well here go that's a that's a Commodities index the index is you don't you cannot put in there what you like or don't like it wouldn't be an index an index is just a reflection of the world of the world around you agriculture is one of the most important parts of the world economy all over the world and my index was designed to reflect the world not just New York or you know San Francisco or something we all wear clothes we all wear shoes many many things in agriculture that are very important to the entire world that's why it's a large part of the index but has nothing to do with whether I'm positive or negative it has to do the reality of the world what I mean is we are seeing several initiatives to get people healthier at least here in Portugal there has been a rise of organic farming but it's still more expensive do you think this new agage agriculture like those vertical farms in Japan will be the new Norm in the future or it will stay like an outside and more um expensive thing well I doubt if it'll be the new Norm it's going to grow and grow a lot I doubt if everybody in the world ever will ever be uh buying and consuming uh what is the term uh Natural Foods if you will uh because it is more expensive there's no question about it but the world many many people everybody would like to have natural food if they could afford it uh and so you're going to see more and more and more of it places like China they have lot got a lot of contaminated food many places so we all want it we can't all afford it but is it is going to continue to grow do you see any way of this industry becoming cheaper in the future I don't see any way that it can ever be as cheap as mass mass farmed cotton or wheat uh with fertilizer and pesticides I mean maybe I'm maybe I'm wrong but maybe it can be but I do know that if you give somebody a choice of clean water or contaminated water they will going to take the clean water if you can give somebody a choice of uh natural milk or adult treated milk they're going to take the natural milk but again it's expensive do you see interest from people getting in agriculture like you say in your books they will be writing Lambos or do you think entrepreneurs won't get into this industry at all throughout history we've had periods long periods when the farmers were the Masters of the Universe rich very powerful controlling governments controlling economies we've had many periods when they've been in the tank uh this has been going on for thousands of years yes there will be periods again when the farmers will rule the roots don't worried it'll come back it always has and it always will in your previous talks you told me that the way to solve the Obesity problem this $2.1 trillion problem a year is by educating people and not by uniting funds and pulling lots of capital shorting companies like Coca-Cola for instance but if we did that we would be putting the People's Health interests before our own isn't this a catch 22 well if if I mean more and more people understand that some lifestyles are not healthy uh and that some foods are not healthy and as people learn and are more and more educated they change their behavior there's no question about that many people eat much less sugar now than they did before fewer people smoke than than they did before so as we learn we learn mankind has always changed its habits and it's happening again nothing unusual about it more education teaches people more and they react Mr Rogers all your books are mandatory for listeners when you wrote a gift to my children what was the most important thing the one thing that they just must know you must be curious and think for yourself you must think independently it's hard to do you must be curious about everything you read and hear and then you do your own independent thinking because the conventional wisdom is rarely if ever right I also want them to learn to beware of boys
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