저자: PeterLynch · 외국인
요약 보기
한 줄 결론: 주식은 장기 투자용이며, 1~2년 내 필요한 돈은 주식에 넣으면 안 된다. 장기 투자 원칙: 최근 10년·30년·130년 기준 주식시장은 장기적으로 가장 좋은 투자처였다. 10~30년 뒤에도 보통주가 유망하다고 믿는다면 주식형 펀드에 자금을 넣을 수 있다. 자금 성격 점검: 1년, 2년, 3년 안에 이 돈이 필요한지 자문해야 한다. 1~2년 내 필요한 돈은 주식이 아니라 MMF 같은 단기 자금 상품에 두어야 한다. 심리·변동성 감내: 주식시장에서 가장 중요한 장기는 뇌보다 위(감내력)다. 시장이 10%, 20% 하락하면 팔 것인지 미리 답을 정해야 하며, 답이 매도라면 오늘 비중을 줄여야 한다. 조정 대기의 손실: 조정을 기다리거나 예상하다 손해 본 사람이 실제 조정으로 손해 본 사람보다 많다. 본인의 경험상 13년간 마젤란을 운용하며 시장이 10% 이상 하락한 적이 9번 있었고, 그때마다 시장보다 더 많이 떨어졌지만 크게 걱정하지 않았다. 신흥국: 전문 분야가 아니라고 전제하면서도, 신흥시장은 많이 하락해 잠재력이 있고 리서치할 만한 곳이라고 봤다. 경제 전망보다 현재 상황을 본다는 입장이다. 기업 분석: 주식은 복권이 아니라 기업의 일부이며, 기업이 장기적으로 잘하면 주가도 오른다. 피델리티에서 하는 것처럼 기업을 연구해야 한다. 정보 우위: 전문 지식(예: 의료 현장 경험)이 정보 우위가 될 수 있다. 과거에 비해 실적 발표·IR 자료 등 정보가 무료로 넓게 공개되어 개인 투자자의 정보 격차가 줄었다. 편견 배제: 철도, 석유, 철강 기업이나 턴어라운드 기업, 노조가 있는 기업을 편견으로 배제하면 안 된다. 투자자는 유연하고 중립적이어야 하며, 피델리티에 좋은 펀드매니저가 많은 이유도 이 유연성에 있다.
다듬은 글
Point is would you say to yourself do I need this money in a year do I need this money in two years, do I need this money in three years, so, my longer term stock market's been the best place to be last 10 years, last 30 years, last 130 years. But if you need the money in one or two years you shouldn't be buying stocks.
In the stock market the most important organ is the stomach. It's not the brain there's always on the way to work, the amount of bad news you can hear is almost infinite now. So the question is: Can you take that? I mean do you really have faith that 10 years, 20 years, 30 years from now common stocks are the place to be.
If you believe in that, you should have some money in equity funds. I mean it's a question of what's your tolerance for pain. I mean the stock market's a very good place to be. But I could toss a coin now it's gonna be lower two years from now, higher I don't know. More people lost money waiting for corrections and anticipating corrections than in the actual corrections.
Well you ought to look in the mirror every day and say what am I going to do, if the market goes down 10 percent. What do you do if it goes down 20? Am I going to sell? Am I going to get out? If that's your answer you should be reducing it today. Well hey, this perfect record I think the 13 years I ran Magellan the market went down 9 times 10% or more.
I had a perfect record I went down more than the market. Every time it went down, I went down more so I just didn't worry about it. The point is, would you say to yourself do I need this money in a year? Do I need this money in 2 years? Do I need this money in 3 years? Longer term, stock market's been the best place to be last 10 years, last 30 years, last 130 years.
But if you need the money in 1 or 2 years, you shouldn't be buying stocks. You should be in a money market fund. Well I think emerging markets that's not my expertise. But I mean these markets have been really hammered. You know and they're a lot of countries are doing a lot better. You know I mean so i think there's potential there that's not my expertise.
But I think emerging markets could be a place to research. I never looked at the economy. The only I look at what's happening right now. You know what's going to happen a year from now? what's going to happen on interest rates? I'd love to get next year's wall street journal. I pay an extra dollar for it, that'd be very helpful.
I don't know what's going to happen in the future, but I want to find right now. Well, I think anybody that's investing in the stock market -inaudible- you buy a company. These are not lottery tickets, Behind every stock there's a company, if the company does well over time, the stocks do well and vice versa.
You have to look at the company that's what you're researching. That's what we do at Fidelity that's what I do. You could be an interventional cardiologist and you put in a heart pump. You say, wow, this really is an incredible breakthrough, preventing shock, preventing you know hemodynamic support.
It's amazing, it's a breakthrough it's great it works. But you you're actually using it i mean or you're you're assisting you're in the operating room seeing this breakthrough. That's you know you start way ahead of most people that's an edge, you need an edge on something. Well the data now is so good.
I remember when nike, we own nike, we had to wait for the mail to come to our library. Now when somebody reports earnings. It's telecast all over the world. They have an investor presentation, they show a balance sheet, so information is much better. So, theoretically the individual's edge has improved in the last 20-30 years versus the professional.
The data is there it's free. Well, I think a lot of people the problem is, they have so many prejudices, there's so many biases, They won't look at a railroad, they won't look an oil company, they won't look at a steel company, you know they they're only going to look at companies growing 40% a year.
They won't look at turn-arounds. So one thing you just don't have so many prejudices and biases I bought companies with unions. You have to really be agnostic and a lot of people they're just not flexible. I think flexibility is — and that's why fidelity had so many great fund managers. They're very flexible what they'll look at.
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