저자: JimCramer · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 종목의 주가 반응은 투자 시계(시간 프레임)에 따라 맞을 수도 틀릴 수도 있으며, 확신이 있다면 반응 구간을 매수·매도 기회로 활용하라는 메시지. 주제 1 - AMD 상·하향 엇갈린 애널리스트 의견 - 바클레이즈가 AMD를 매수로 상향, 주가 약 10% 급등(전일 기준 시장 반응). - 번스타인은 AMD를 매도(하향)하며 단기 실적 악화를 지적, 당일 AMD 2% 이상 하락. - 크라머는 두 의견 모두 맞을 수 있다고 봄: 번스타인은 단기(근접 분기), 바클레이즈는 장기 관점. 주제 2 - 반도체 업황과 재고 문제 - 팬데믹 기간 과잉 주문(더블 오더링)으로 PC 업체 등 고객사 재고 급증. - 지난 분기 대부분 반도체 기업 실적 부진, 일부는 실적 사전 발표. - 마이크론은 공급 과잉, 삼성은 신규 라인 주문 축소 등 공급 조정 움직임. - 2023년은 실망스러운 해가 될 가능성을 인정. 주제 3 - 엔비디아·퀄컴 등 반도체 관련 상향 - 바클레이즈가 엔비디아(목표가 상향, AI 플랫폼 관련), 퀄컴을 상향. - 크라머는 AMD·엔비디아가 실적 충격을 받을 수 있으나 반등 시 매수 기회로 본다고 언급(장기 보유 의견). - 기관 투자자는 대량 매수에 시간이 걸려 2024년 대비 미리 매수할 필요성 언급. 주제 4 - 경기민감주 강세 - 레이시온(항공 수주잔고), D.R. 호튼(주택건설), 파카(트럭) 실적 호조로 주가 급등. - 캐터필러 등 경기민감주 언급. 주제 5 - 기술주 규제 및 마이크로소프트 - 법무부의 구글 반독점 조치로 테크주 부담. - 마이크로소프트는 깜짝 실적 상회, 클라우드 호조로 강세. 주제 6 - 개별 종목 Q&A - 웰스파고: 17% 손실 상태, 크라머는 장기 관점에서 추가 매수 권고(목표 구간 언급, 2018년 62달러 수준 회상). - 리얼티인컴: 배당 매력 있다고 긍정 평가. - 에너지 섹터·오일서비스 및 로지텍 실적 부진 관련 논의 예고. 주제 7 - 리스크 및 결론 - 시장 반응은 시간 프레임에 따라 맞을 수도 틀릴 수도 있음. - 확신이 있다면 주가 급락 구간을 매수 기회, 급등 구간을 매도 기회로 활용 가능.
다듬은 글
thank you Great America I do want to 's not just to entertain put it in context educate call me 1-800-743-60 tweet me at Jim Kramer you and me we need to talk about the hardest part of investing we can all more or less figure out the so-called macro the big picture economic situation including the Federal Reserve which will feed into the market we can figure out individual companies or if we're willing to do the homework especially now that we're in the heart of early season and all these on Enterprises are giving us the quarterly updates we can get that but there's a third Factor nobody talks about and we're going to change that tonight we need to talk about on this ultimately sedate day we're Dow Advanced 104 points this would be dip 0.07 that's at the climb 0.27 said we got to talk about why stocks really move and that's about time frame the time it takes for a good story to come to tuition this is something that Jennifer's even the professionals so don't feel left out if you're an amateur or a Home gamer let's take a recent example yesterday a prominent Wall Street analyst upgraded AMD Advanced Micro Devices shares to the equivalent of a Byron saying that it's time to buy AMD it's the shares simply don't reflect the greatness of the semiconductor company's future call moved this talk up nearly 10 yesterday a remarkable achievement given that it was really just entirely from one analyst suggestion today though amdk back a big chunk of those games down more than two percent but way lower mid morning why because another analyst downgraded from by the hole don't bother don't buy don't buy in this case because yesterday's Monster Run simply doesn't reflect the near term not the long term but the near-term future which is unremittingly bad and possibly getting worse who's right the bull or the bear you think they can't both be right wouldn't you wrong they're both absolutely right this dichotomy is one of the things that makes it so difficult for people to pick individual stocks including AMD which we still want for the travel shots precisely because of this timing issue all right the bear sandals right as rain because amd's business is awful now and shows no sign of improving but over the Long Haul the bullish analyst is going to be right because eventually the semiconductor downturn will end and when business comes running back so will the stock of AMD the difference between these two calls is simply the time frame first you need to know that CEO leases who was transformed AMD from an also ran semiconductor Enterprise into a dominant chip maker in gaming personal computers and high performance Computing think the Big Data companies and how much power they need to run their web services think Microsoft tonight which talked about how great Azure is doing unfortunately all these businesses haven't repeat for now in fact they Peak while MD was still pumping out chips for those end markets like there was no tomorrow now some of that was a judgment the business remained strong seemed reasonable but a lot of it came down to what's known as double ordering where clients like the PC makers Place more orders than they need because they're so desperate to keep up with the man they're afraid to miss out some of it's because everybody in the industry misjudged the short-term nature of the semi-ductor shortage at least the part that's involves that I'm talking about it lasted roughly as long as the pandemic then evaporated every client was suddenly stuck with massive amounts of inventory every middleman provides shifts to suddenly overflow with them and still the semiconductor companies get pumping them out they're often the last to know they found out the hard way last quarter though in almost every Semiconductor Company blew up meaning the urns were so poor So Below the earnings estimates of The Brokerage force that they had to pre-announce their weak numbers because of the giant inventory Glide ever since then the chipmakers have been trying to get back into wall Street's good graces but they just can't they've made fewer and fewer chips in some cases like Micron which has a hellacious glut compounded by the unwillingness of competitors Samsung to slow its lines down have actually cut back orders for machines to make new Chips well that's one way to stop a glut but only if everyone else goes along so now let's get back to why both analysts the Barclays bowl and The Bernstein Bear could end up being right let's start with today's downgrade then on the gist of the piece pretty simple there's no let up in the lack of demand for the end products it still makes no sense for amd's clients to order more chips there's still a glut in fact bursting insists that the inventories only gotten worse not better which is my boy given the fact that PC sales were down 22 percent year over year in the fourth quarter I think the bursting could be right about an overall continued decline so how can the bullet Barclays be right because he actually concedes the 2023 is going to be a big disappointment there's nothing in this upgrade for AMD and a host of other semis including two more Capital trust names Qualcomm which also got upgraded in Nvidia which received a used price Target increase that in case she's looking for upside surprises for this quarter even the next one but that's really Nvidia alone it has to do with a particular kind of AI platform they have however you have to understand how big institutional money managers work if you truly believe this horrendous inventory Global and in the industry you can get back on track then you can't possibly wait until the end of the year to start buying something like AMD in anticipation of 2024.
if you're an essential Institutional Investor and you have to buy millions of shares in order for your position AMD to make a difference your overall portfolio that takes a lot of time you also want to get in ahead of everyone else especially if it turns out that a reopened China begins ordering more chips by the Fall that's possible but if you're Bernstein Bear you're thinking Bill wants to go through the hell that awaits you if you own AMD this year so you might as well just get out now right into the sink created by that Barclays upgrade it helps with some of what happened yesterday was clearly short covering not natural buying the semis have been a losing Battleground for ages for the Bulls so why not do a little bullfight knowing that the near-term quarters aren't going to be bad so in the crazy world of Wall Street it's not enough to think about the company or the sector or the asset class or the macro including the fed you also need to consider the reaction and even the reactors themselves I personally believe that AMD Nvidia Qualcomm could indeed get hurt by earnings but I also know from yesterday that from now on the Bulls will use every decline in these stocks to do some buying in anticipation the next upcycle because it always is that way you always have to jump the gun you just don't want to be too early but I think we've seen the bottom we're sticking around in these stocks for the chapel trust because as we tell members of the investor Club we're willing to be patient for great companies and that precisely with AMD and Nvidia are eventually they'll turn around I don't know when but I'd rather be too early than too late of course this isn't just about semiconductors but we saw so many Cyclone stocks erupt today because some cyclicals are actually just doing really well right now even with higher rates that's the feeling I got from Raytheon it was so great he's just putting on squawking the street amazing story about Aviation backlog same with Dr Horton gigantic home builder putting up some amazing numbers best of all was paccar might not know the design and produce trucks which is fantastic for everything that goes into a truck and for Kramer fave and Trust holding caterpillar bye bye bye bye bye the one area that seems just testing for hardship though remains Tech today the justice department decided that it wants more competition in the marketplace so it's taken that goo shot at Google again 10 years ago we coined the term Fang on this show the group remained snake bit and fortunately Microsoft hey that M never got into Fang reported a gigantic upside earning surprise very strong Cloud numbers much needed good news after the recent layoff announcement but the bottom line as we head into the harder Burning Season I need you to understand that the reaction is often right depending upon your time frame however it's not to be wrong as we'll talk about later either way if you have conviction the reaction can often be a great opportunity to bye bye bye or sell sell sell let's start with Barry in Florida Barry hi Jim thanks for the opportunity to be on the show uh I've been you're quite welcome I've been a club member since this Inception uh thank you disregarding sorry Apostle this morning my question about uh well is about Wells Fargo uh it represents a larger segment in my portfolio and the result of a failed strategy I am down about 17 uh with the X date coming up in early February I don't believe it's a cell but I'd like to get an idea from you as to whether I should buy more or just hope okay I want you to buy more Wells Fargo it's a big vision for my trust one of the biggest I have to tell you that there was a machine breakdown where I had it down to 40 today and a squawk on the street I said I want to buy every share hand over fist but Wells at 44 with Charlie sharp doing his magic is a great buy don't worry about being down 17.
take the long-term view the stock was at 62 in February 8th of 2018. Bill in my Homestead of New Jersey Bill Hey Big Bergen County boo yaski Daddy from a giant oh man how much do I love burgundy and one of my favorite counties in New Jersey just for the record but I'm still licking my wound through the giant fan gym I need your help I got some capital I want to put to work and I'm thinking about realty income Court I like the dividends I like your idea I think your idea is a great one I wish more people had your uh common sense because letter O is a terrific buy a lot of people don't think it has the growth they're wrong I like it very much I'd like to take another oh you know what I am not going to be able to and you know what that's a shame um anyway if you have conviction the reactions will be a great opportunity to get in or get out oh man money tonight NASCAR holy cow where's my helmet it's already in 75th anniversary and I'm learning more about the Brand's Legacy and fusion with the organization's top press and racing Legend Jeff Gordon joins me as well then energy was the top performing sector in 2022 but not so great the second half and now the 2023 is in full swing what should you do with the oil service companies I'm drilling down on a handful of Thanksgiving my take and Logitech one of our faves plummeted after three earnings so now that the report has been handed in what did Wall Street dislike about the story I'm getting some answers with the CEO
Comments 0