저자: HowardMarks · 외국인
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결론: 저금리 장기 호황이 끝나는 '씨체인지(대전환)' 국면이므로 과거에 통하던 투자 전략을 바꿔야 한다는 주장이다. [시장 환경 전환] - 1980~2020년 금리 하락(20%대→0%대)이 자산가격 상승을 이끌었으나, 이 우호적 환경이 앞으로도 이어지지는 않을 것이라고 봄. - 2008~09 금융위기 이후 약 14년간의 저금리·완화 환경은 역사적으로 예외적이었다고 평가. - 금리 상승기에는 수요 감소, 기업 대형 프로젝트 축소, 자산가치 하락 위험이 있다고 설명. [리스크 관점] - 위험은 자산의 '품질'이 아니라 '가격'에 달려 있다는 입장. 높은 가격에 사면 고품질 자산도 위험하고, 낮은 가격이면 저품질 자산도 투자 가치가 있을 수 있다고 봄. - 가격이 오를수록 위험은 커진다는 관점을 제시. [투자 전략 (Oaktree 메모 인용)] - 주식 일변도에서 벗어나 채권 투자를 고려. 10년물 국채 수익률이 15년 만에 4% 상회. - 저위험으로도 적정 수익을 추구하고, 주식·채권·사모·벤처 캐피털을 섞어 분산. - 현금 비중을 확보해 향후 12~24개월 내 나타날 투자 기회에 대비. [기타] - 재정·통화정책은 현재 경기 확장기 말에 과도하게 완화적이어서 과열·인플레이션 위험이 있다고 지적. - 영상 내 개별 종목·지수에 대한 구체적 가격 방향 예측이나 목표가는 제시되지 않음. - 채권 금리는 장기 관점의 상승 가능성(금리 정상화)을 언급했으나 1~3개월 방향 예측은 없음.
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are you tired of missing out on investment opportunities that could change your financial future get ready to discover the biggest investment opportunity in 40 years this video will give you the inside scoop on the most lucrative investment opportunity of our time all that just at price of a mere click on the Subscribe button what else do you wish for meet Howard marks the man who's considered a legend in the investment world and ready to share his wealth of knowledge with you the sea change in investing Howard marks a billionaire and highly respected investor recently talked about a sea change in the stock market and economy that he believes is occurring he stated that there have been three sea changes in his 53 years of investing and we are in one of them now according to Marx a sea change is a major environmental transformation a complete change in attitudes Etc the first sea change was the fall of interest rates from 20 to zero between 1980 and 2020 which had a very positive effect the second was the opening of investors Minds to what is called risk return analysis where investors intelligently take risks instead of avoiding them this was a significant change in investing now Marx believes that we may be on the doorstep of the third sea change since the central banks around the world and the treasury took intense action to solve the global financial crisis in 2008-2009 we have been living in a highly stimulated very positive Easy Money environment for roughly 14 years many people may think the last 14 years were normal but they were not it was the best imaginable period for borrowers and asset owners but this will not be the best thing in the future the sea change is basically a change from the extremely low interest rate climate of the last 40 14 years I guess for that and the the climate of declining interest rates over the last 40 years uh you know ever since the FED stepped in to rescue the world in the global financial crisis they've kept interest rates low that's made it very easy to get money it's made it easy to make to make money uh I just think that conditions are going to be somewhat different in the years ahead and this is important because you you talk about the two distinctions that they're it's key to say yes we went very low on interest rates in a kind of an emergency mode after the great credit crisis and we never really got back to normal but they were declining ever since the last time we had a big inflation scare and that declining in some ways would you not agree kind of changed the mindset even more because you when you expect things to keep going down it changes the way you think about how you're going to price things and the risk you're taking well it it changed the mindset it also created very very uh salutary conditions you know in 1980 I had a loan outstanding from the bank and I got a slip from the bank saying the rate on your loan is now 22 and a quarter 40 years later I was able to borrow money at two and a quarter so we have a decline of interest rates of 20 percentage points oh steadily over that period and declining interest rates are very good for the economy they stimulate it they're very good for business they make it easier to make money they make it they reduce the cost the interest cost to businesses they make it great for borrowers they make it great for asset owners because assets become more an asset with a given uh cash flow becomes more valuable when when competing things like bonds decline in interest so salutary across the board understanding the relationship between interest rates and asset values to truly appreciate Howard Mark's comments you first have to understand the relationship between interest rates and asset values asset values are simply the things people own as Investments such as stocks bonds and real estate the value of an asset is based on the cash it will generate for you as the owner discounted back to the present day using an interest rate while this may sound complicated it's actually a straightforward equation and concept let's say you buy a stock that produces twenty dollars a year in cash for you every year for 10 years at the end of that 10 years you can then sell the stock for two hundred dollars you know how much cash the stock will produce so the last step is to determine the interest rate used to Discount those cash flows back to the present day you have to Discount the cash flows because today's dollar will not be worth the same as a dollar ten years from now if you had to choose between receiving one thousand dollars today or one thousand dollars ten years from now you would obviously want that money today this is referred to as the time value of money in investing for example a fifteen percent interest rate gives us a stock price of 100 and fifty dollars per share but as we decrease that interest rate the stock price increases bringing the interest rate down to six percent gives us a stock price of two hundred and fifty nine dollars per share notice how the amount of cash the stock produces stays precisely the same the only thing that changed was the interest rate which was powerful enough to push our stock price up by 73 percent this is what has been happening in the stock market and economy for the last 40 years as interest rates have steadily declined asset values have steadily increased even if the cash flow generated by those assets Remains the Same this is what Howard marks is warning about Easy Money environment we've been experiencing is not the norm and won't continue forever as an investor it's important to keep this in mind and adjust your strategies accordingly well number one most people equate risk with low quality assets and safety with high quality assets and they still do I mentioned the nifty 50 high quality people thought you know there's an old saying you can't get hurt buying IBM and we documented you lost 80 to 90 percent of your money on the other hand what about low quality is that a source of of risk you know when I got started in high-yield bonds back in 78 I looked up in Moody's what does it mean to be single B and Moody's defined a single Bond as follows quote fails to possess the characteristics of a desirable investment in other words low quality asset can't be a good investment well is there no price at which a low quality asset becomes a good investment you know if if we went out after this session to the parking lot and I said to you I'd like to sell you my car would you like to buy it and let's say you like my car and you have money and you need a car hopefully there's one question you would ask me before saying yes and that's what's the price and here Moody's was saying that A B rated bond is a bad investment well what about it 75 cents on the dollar what about a 50 what about a 25 is there no price and so this is the kind of herd error that you can take advantage of so risk is not quality and um you know most people believe that as something is rising in uh price it's that means that people think better of it it's less risky well I think that when something rises in price it becomes more risky impact of rising interest rates and inflation inflation has been soaring to levels not seen in over 40 years and it's causing the Federal Reserve the government body responsible for influencing interest rates for taking action they've raised interest rates at an unprecedented Pace to tackle runaway inflation which has had a massive impact on the stock market in fact 2022 was one of the worst years ever for the stock market with an 18 percent fall making it the seventh worst year in U.S history but why do Rising interest rates cause such chaos in the stock market it's all about supply and demand as interest rates rise demand decreases because it becomes more expensive for people and companies to borrow money this means that companies may have to cut back on big projects and the demand for goods and services May decrease leading to deflation however the Federal Reserve is committed to raising interest rates until inflation normalizes and this can hopefully cool down inflation as the underlying causes of today's inflation debate the FED might lower the pace of its interest rate increases but that doesn't mean that interest rates will return to zero Instead The New Normal may be somewhere between the high interest rates of the 1980s and the zero percent interest rates of the 2010s how will this impact your personal financial situation it is crucial to stay informed about the latest interest rate and inflation developments as they can significantly impact your investments in borrowing decisions will the Federal Reserve be able to get inflation under control without raising interest rates to levels seen in the 1980s only time will tell but one thing's for sure the world of Finance is constantly changing and it's up to us to stay informed and adapt to the ever-evolving landscape of course we don't know the full impact of the low interest rates we've never had them this low certainly never had them this low this long it encourages business in certain ways and it makes it easier for consumers to buy but it also has certain distorting effects it encourages risk taking in order to get good returns it makes Capital available for risky projects so I would say that the outcome is mixed monetary and fiscal policy well in in the states of course fiscal policy is very expansionary we're running big deficits Lord Keynes would say that we shouldn't be running big deficits in a time of prosperity or certainly in the 11th year of an economic expansion so we have the risk of overheating and inflation and of course monetary policy is expansive now two with rate Cuts having been made and perhaps more in the office I don't personally think that we should be stimulating in the 11th year of an expansion but the market I think likes likes it investment strategies for a changing economic landscape now that we got a handle on what's going on with inflation and interest rates it's time to talk about how it affects us as investors fortunately Howard marks has provided valuable insights on how investors should approach this changing economic landscape we've gone from the low return world of 2000 and 9 to 21 to a full return world and it may become more so in the near-term investors can now potentially get solid returns from credit instruments meaning they no longer have to rely as heavily on riskier investments to achieve their overall return targets lenders and bargain hunters face much better prospects in this changed environment than they did in 2009-21 and importantly if you grant that the environment is and may continue to be very different from what it was over the last 13 years and most of the last 40 years it should follow that the investment strategies that work best over those periods may not be the ones that outperform in the years ahead that's the sea change I'm talking about the statement that stands out is that the investment strategies that have been successful in the past may not necessarily be the most effective in the future this leads us to the question what should investors do differently in response to these changes before we share these excellent tips with you remember to subscribe and turn on notifications so you get all of our upcoming videos co-founder of oak tree Capital Management have some valuable advice for you in a recent memo he highlighted three key strategies you should employ in the current market conditions firstly Mark suggests it's time to consider buying bonds instead of solely relying on stocks for years interest rates have been so low that investors have had no choice but to invest heavily in stocks to generate any sort of return but that's no longer the case the yield on a 10-year Government Bond has recently surpassed four percent for the first time in 15 years offering investors an exciting opportunity to diversify their portfolio and reap the benefits of a higher return secondly Marx advises investors to take less risk and still generate good returns with interest rates at Rock Bottom investors were turning to riskier Investments like cryptocurrencies and meme stocks to try and make a profit but with bond yields now increasing there's no need to take on so much risk by adjusting your portfolio to include a mix of stocks bonds private equity and Venture Capital you can achieve your investment goals without putting all your eggs in one basket lastly Marx recommends building up your cash position as there will be exciting investment opportunities over the next 12 to 24 months with interest rates on the rise holding cash is no longer a hindrance to your investment returns instead it's an opportunity to pounce on great investment opportunities when they arise so there you have it Folks by taking these strategies on board you'll be better equipped to navigate the ever-changing investment landscape so what are you waiting for it's time to take action and invest wisely comment your opinions in the comments section below we'll catch you up in the next video Until then take care and keep hustling
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