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hey guys how's it going and thanks for coming I'm Nick and this is real life money if you like this topic don't forget to subscribe for more so a billionaire hedge fund manager Ray Dalio has been talking about a recession in 2020 in his perspective so the outline in this video we're going to be going over that what he personally thinks and some recent examples that could support it possibly happening very soon next we're going to go into the possible strategies that Ray Dalio is going to suggest anyway so you could avoid losing money in the next stock market crash and at the end something a little interesting we're gonna be talking about possible bubbles that are out there that could lead to the next stock market crash and that could definitely be fun to talk about I mean not fun to live through but you get the idea so if you're not aware of Ray Dalio he is a billionaire in the hedge fund industry like one of if not the top hedge fund manager out there he released a book called principles that goes over the principles that he learned throughout his life and also released a recent article originally on LinkedIn of paradigm shifts I would definitely recommend it I actually did another video going into detail about that but he definitely has information out there that we could all learn from now the interview that he just went through he said there is a 25% chance that there will be a recession in 2020 now everyone has different perspectives everyone has different ideas and no one really has a crystal ball of what could possibly happen he did say 25% other people are saying different things other hedge fund managers economists and everything could be like the last innings so it really depends who you talk to however it's definitely good to prepare now the definition of a recession is two consecutive down quarters so we're kind of waiting for that it hasn't happened yet so that will technically be the start of a recession some examples that support a recession in 2020 or you probably heard of it before the inverted yield curve we just went through that kind of up and down through that there was a two-year and the tenure did invert the only times that has happened is previous recessions now something that no one is really talking about and I want to give a shout out to another channel that goes out into this stuff every single day but his name is Gregory Mannarino I'll leave a link in the description so you could check him out he is fantastic he goes over everything that's happening every day he has at least two videos a day before the market opens and after the market closes and he really dives into this but he did mention that the Fed is going back into quantitative easing it hasn't been announced but you could check this chart right here you could see they have been steadily declining for a while now but only recently the beginning of this month they are actually starting to buy more Treasuries that's what happened in 2008 or so like that area again he's great definitely recommend checking him out now to prepare yourself what Ray Dalio is popular for is his all-weather portfolio and the reason for that is because there are essentially four different seasons in the market the economy could be growing or it could be falling those are two and then the other factor to look at is inflation there could be increasing inflation or decreasing inflation also known as deflation this strategy was originally announced in Tony Robbins book money master the game I'm rocking my book right here BAM but I'm going to give you the information of the idea of the all-weather portfolio so like we said before if the economy is rising there's growth in the economy then stocks corporate bonds and commodities and/or gold is the investment to hold now if the economy is falling then more Treasury bonds and tips also known as inflation linked bonds basically if there's inflation then the bond returns whatever the inflation is let's say like three percent it's going to give you an additional 3% to the face value now that's the economy growth side now let's talk about the inflation side so if inflation is increasing then the investment to be in would be commodities or gold and also tips like we said before if there's inflation then these are kind of hedges against inflation or essentially the dollar and on the opposite side if there is deflation then the investment to being would be Treasury bonds and stocks now this is the big moment hopefully you guys could see but this is the actual portfolio allocation of his all-weather portfolio so this basically determines you don't want a bet of what you could be right in because chances are like we've been wrong in the past chances are we're going to be wrong in the future at some point so instead of betting that you're going to be right you're probably bet on being wrong and this is exactly what his portfolio goes over so he has get your note pads out and write this down but there is only 30% in stocks which is actually very low compared to other people's allocations then he has a huge holdings in bonds he suggests 40% in long-term bonds and 15% in intermediate or like middle row like medium-term bonds now the other 15% is split in half seven and a half for being gold and seven a half should be in commodities again so the reason for this if the economy does drop then stocks would fall and then other parts of the portfolio will hold it up so you do not lose as much as you would normally so bonds could hold it up and gold usually skyrockets during the crash and that's why he recommends it a lot of people do not like gold however if you are aware of history gold does hold its value especially in an inflationary economy now to give you like an actual example of how a portfolio similar to this like just diversifying a bit away from stocks because especially when you're younger you really don't care about it you know you want to put everything in stocks because that has more returns however look at this portfolio this is basically a bunch of everything like Ray Dalio is example so more bonds more gold and cash and this is what the portfolio actually does so it actually drops well actually it doesn't drop at all really it definitely drops less than the overall stock market and you can see it outperforms and holds its value over time now over the long term yes stocks do outperform however if you do structure your portfolio in this way there is less volatility less risk and then on the rebound you could then kind of get back into more equity so hopefully that kind of opens your mind up a little bit it definitely helped me out because I just thought put everything into stocks that's it you can do that and you don't have to worry about it if you're just gonna sit there for like thirty plus years go for it however looking at this me you know it really depends how you want to play the game but this could definitely help you avoid the risk of a drop now what could be the main cause of this next drop we're going to be talking about two possible bubbles in the recession well in the economy right now now I don't want to give like too much information kind of just want to keep it a very basic level basic ideas so we all could follow this but if you guys have seen the movie the big short if you haven't definitely recommend seeing that but that goes over or based on the investor that invested or bet against the stock market or essentially the real estate bubble in 2007 and 2008 he made like billions of dollars and he just recently came back out and saying that index funds could possibly be the next bubble and that's really interesting because if you were an investor in any kind or if you're a beginner you probably heard of index funds you know you don't know what stock to pick so pick them all right you just pick an S&P 500 fund and it's super passive super simple it could set it up easily and a lot of people love that that could possibly be the issue because so many people are getting into index funds I could definitely see his perspective especially if they are like inexperienced and let's say the stock market does start to tip those people are going to get out of those funds and caused the crash even harder so that could definitely be more of an exponential effect of index funds and the other possible bubble not talking about Bitcoin although that's are helpful now going into that however I did hear a bunch of different economists and different investors it did mention there could be a possible bubble in the bonds market and that's very interesting now recently you did see the inverted yield curve a lot of people are piling their money into Treasuries because bonds are safer right well there are is out there that hold negative yields which is like completely insane imagine like lending some more money and you have to pay them because you lent it to them it doesn't make any sense but there are countries out there and if we go into negative territory which could definitely be possible gonna keep a basic level here but if we do go negative then these bonds we're gonna have to be paying interest on the bonds that we bought so then bonds would not be attractive whatsoever which is why every Dalio suggests to have at least some percentage of your portfolio in gold it works well in inflation it holds its value you could preserve your wealth so it might have been a lot of info try to keep it slow and steady because that's how the race is won but we went over some possible effects or when the economy could crash starting with Ray Dalio next with his strategy of how to prepare and then ending with some possible bubbles out there so if you guys have any suggestions any thoughts or opinions that could lead to the next stock market crash do you think it's going to be in 2020 2021 do you think we're gonna have another ten years I really I highly doubt there's going to be another ten years but you never really know so that's why all whether you're betting on yourself pink wrong so if you guys have any questions comments concerns leave them down below in the comment section so we could talk about this because we probably shouldn't be listening to news channels out there that they don't know what they're talking about we might so thank you so much for watching guys definitely appreciate it and I do have other videos going into more detail of this stuff especially paradigm shift by Ray Dalio that just put that out he goes over like the possible transition our economy may be going through but thank you again for watch and I really appreciate it in the next one
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