저자: VijayKedia · 외국인
요약 보기
인도 투자자 Vijay Kedia는 2014년 중국 체류 중 환경 규제로 화학 산업이 폐쇄될 것을 보고 Sudarshan Chemicals를 매수해 큰 수익을 냈다고 회고한다. 중국은 글로벌 공급망을 장악했고 성장도 계속되지만, 중국 주식시장은 16년간 지수가 정체되고 부동산은 폭락했다고 지적한다. 중국 시장은 폐쇄경제라 정보가 부족해 직접투자 대신 중국 ETF(인도 상장)로 간접 투자했다고 밝힌다. 다만 중국 데이터 신뢰성과 정치 리스크에 대한 우려를 함께 언급한다.
다듬은 글
You had told me that you are investing in Chinese ETFs these days. That was very interesting for me because we have not captured the Indian market very well and you have just entered the Chinese market. Tell me something about it, Sonia ji. I feel that China is the first wonder of the 21st century. You should visit China once.
Leave aside Almaty and Vietnam and nothing else, you should show China to your children. I will tell you, you should go there for 15-20 days, go to a big city, go to Shanghai, go to Beijing, then go to a small city. You have gone. Yes, I stayed in China for nine months. Okay, I stayed in China for nine months and from there I made the most winning investment of my life just by sitting in China.
Well, the observation that I am telling you about, I will interrupt and talk about the observation. It was in 2014, I was in China for nine months and while sitting there, the pollution there was so much. There was a lot of pollution, I went to Beijing and saw that the entire sky was completely black and in all the newspapers people were talking about the environment and pollution, China took a decision there that it will close all the industries, whatever chemical industries, whatever hydrogen chemical industries there were, they will close them there, this idea came to me and I was watching Sudarshan Chemicals for 10-15 years there, and coincidentally, nature also tells you that if you want something from your heart, then the whole universe helps in achieving it, I met people working in two different chemical companies, both of them told me the same thing, they said that Beijing Chemical is going to take over India, then I understood, there I used to follow Sudarshan Chemicals, while sitting there, I did not pay attention to four-five, three- four times, that Sudarshan Chemical, sitting in China, I bought it on the phone at whatever price I was getting today.
The price is 1200, you mean this, what I said is be observant formal, be observant, so China, I think this is the first of the 21st century, you must go to China and see, leave your enmity behind and there is no enmity, today all our programs of the entire world, be it solar programs, lithium ion programs, green hydrogen programs, all their raw material has been captured by China, without China that development is not possible in the world, you know China is the only country which says that this year it will export 6 million vehicles, it will export 60 lakh vehicles, we must be making 50 lakh vehicles, there is no comparison with China, it is okay in the economy of scale, we can be much better than them in every other thing, in culture, but as far as business is concerned, you can take all the mines of the world or whatever futuristic technology is there, China has it all, it will make an electric car and send it to you for under $18000 There are no electric vehicles in Europe below $40,000.
Now Europe is also getting nervous, that is why Trump also says that I do not know about going into electric, if I go into electric then I will have to depend on China, but now since Elon Musk's Giga factory is in India and China itself, then look at the scale of China in everything, we compare with China, with due respect to China, of course we are just getting started, as if our Amrit Kaal has just begun, we will have to achieve 25% growth to catch up with China, the GDP growth that they talk about is an economy of $18 trillion and we cannot compare at all, India is such a big democracy, China has autocratic rule, which means how can there be a comparison, there cannot be a comparison, so sometimes I feel that we are suffering from the side effects of this democracy, correct yes, in India we need a little bit of democracy and a little bit of dictatorship as well.
My personal view is that if there is nothing here then nothing gets done, right? Now it has been five years since the bullet train was started. Imagine, you have stopped it, an NGO will come and plant a flag here saying that there was a temple built here or a mosque built here or this is built, you cannot do this, you cannot cut this tree, you cannot cut that.
But when you talk about investment in China ETF, it is because the Chinese market has fallen a lot right now, so the property market has crashed there, so according to the valuation, you are saying that China ETF. Now see, in 2008, the Hong Kong index was around 32000. In the 2008 boom, within seven-eight days, even today it is 19000.
We talk in India about CAGR at 10. We talk about CAGR at 10. Our Nifty works, we talk about CAGR at 10 and we get happy. We are happy. Now think about it there, it is stuck at half the price and if we add CG at 10, then there is 16 years between AA and 24, then think about that. I want that feeling, I am talking about Hong Kong index of 1 lakh, for an example, today it is selling for 000 and that industry is also growing at 5 to 6, yesterday also the data came, China's GDP has grown at 6, how much it has grown at 5 or 6, it means it is adding trillion, brother, it has an economy of 18 trillion dollars, still it is adding, even if we add a fraction, we are going to add 250 billion dollars, so first of all our comparison is, we should understand from them that yes, brother, what are those people doing, what we should do, so I feel like I was thinking of saying this, like I told you, I try to catch anything at the end, I want to catch the Churchgate train at Churchgate and not at Mandiri, so I feel like if I add this inflation or understanding, then today I will get 32000 It is available at half the price and the Chinese market has not given any growth for 16 years.
You say the Chinese index, you are talking about the economy growing, the index did not grow, the stock market did not grow, so I think that maybe this is right, you may also be different, I do n't know, so I have invested a little in ETFs, let's see, but whenever you say the observation in your framework, right now the Chinese market, as an investor, I am saying if I want to invest in Chinese ETFs, I can go and visit whatever is happening in the Chinese market, but because of the closed economy of China, there is not much news in the media about it every day.
What is happening in the auto industry, we come to know after six months, the property market has crashed, etc., etc. So, as an investor, how do you keep tabs on what is happening in the Chinese market, that is why I invested in ETFs, I did not make a direct investment, you cannot make a direct investment like this, you can invest even with a lakh dollars.
You will be able to take it out but the calculation per person per year is what the government calls LRS, so if you do it under the Liberalized Remittance Scheme, then I am talking about Indi, that Chinese ETF, NCP is listed, NSC, BSC, etc. Well, I have done it in ETF, the fund manager understands, it is their problem, they have to show their performance, the poor guy will perform, he is studying, now of course, more money comes in direct investing, but what you are saying is the same thing, there is no authenticity of the data there, they themselves do not know which data is going to come tomorrow and the government itself does not have confidence, tomorrow someone will be put in jail, the name of the Defense Minister came up, he disappeared, what kind of people, poor guy, that wound, that Ali Baba, Alibaba, Ali Baba, he disappeared, he disappeared, he disappeared, then he is giving a speech on agriculture, going somewhere, that poor guy, from where did they make him so big, that poor guy, he has become worth 35 billion dollars.
The issue of that company was about to come, it was stopped the next day, so all these things are a big problem there, so much dictatorship is also a problem and we do not want that here, that is a problem, but for this very reason I did it in ETF and it is listed in India, you can buy as many as you want
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