저자: BillAckman · 외국인
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경기침체는 저레버리지 우량기업의 본질가치에 큰 영향이 없고, 과잉 레버리지 기업만 타격을 받는다. 넷플릭스는 패스워드 공유 문제로 사업모델 재평가 후 매도했다. 펀드는 대규모 자사주매입과 저평가 보유주에 자본을 투입 중이며, 버핏을 최고 투자자로 꼽고 신입 시절 스타트업 근무 경험을 권한다. 펀en다멘털 투자의 지속 가능성을 강조한다.
다듬은 글
the value of a business unless it's a highly levered uh very economically sensitive company is not particularly affected by the on you know uh by the event of a recession right if you own a the value of a stock right the value of an interest in a company it's the present value of the cash that business generates over its life and if it's a business that should exist forever well pick Hilton for example um we can expect that over you know in in past history there's been a recession every seven or eight years let's assume the future is the same and there's a recession every seven or eight years going forward it doesn't that's kind of factored into the value of the of the Enterprise the only reason why a recession creates is destroys value is you have a company that is highly levered and then if revenues decline you know their cash flow goes negative and they can't they can't support their debt and they go bankrupt right but if you own a very well capitalized business I I don't think a recession has a meaningful impact it might affect that Year's revenues and cash flow but that's just one line item and a long spreadsheet of cash flows that you discount if you will into the present that the we have a much larger number of un unpay I.E people who share passwords than we thought or than we' at least disclosed previously uh this is causing us to reassess our business model we're going to go to you know an advertis iing model um and while we have enormous confidence and a management team that's done a fantastic job over many many years uh it's a completely new approach to their business and I think it it for us it made the future difficult to predict in terms of the future you know what what's going to happen and we own we're very concentrated investor we put a large amount of capital in each commitment we want these to be things that we can predict with a high degree of confidence over a long period of time and Netflix became if you will unpredictable for us so we sold it we sold it around $225 a share No $275 a share um and uh actually don't remember precise exit price uh it's trading above the price we exited but that doesn't mean it it wasn't the right decision to exit for us an investor who owns 100 stocks is a place for Netflix an investor owns N9 or 10 in light of the uncertainty created by the changes in how they're going to approach their Market we felt it was not something that could fit into our portfolio in general we like to own things for the long term on dominoes we actually made a profitable investment over the course of the Year our original holding period intention was not a year but the world changed in a pretty dramatic way uh one got lot more difficult to get labor lot more difficult to find drivers uh much higher interest rate uh environment and the combination of those factors and the valuation that when we sold made it in our view uh just a less attractive opportunity we' rather deploy the cash elsewhere so we put our capital in two places one we launched uh one of the more aggressive buyback programs out there uh we're buying in about a million and a half shares uh you know approaching about 34 of a percent of our shares outstanding every month that's a pretty aggressive program it's about 28% of the average shares outstanding we think that's the easiest investment that we can make right now one we're well capitalized um you know plenty of cash on hand uh two we're trading at as you know a 35% discount to neev three our companies are trading at in our view deep discounts their intrinsic values you get the benefit of that double discount uh so we think that's been a good place uh to deploy Capital The Other Place we've been deploying capital is some of these sort of more opportunistic Hedges we're investing a relatively small you know maybe 1 two two and a half% of our capital in each of these various commitments together comprising at cost you know 5 or 6% of our Capital but Investments we can make 6X 8X 10x and sometimes more that seems a better use of capital for our marginal dollar than the next big Equity commitment uh and we've looked at and a couple of things have come closer to prices where we would own them um but stocks haven't really gotten cheap enough for us to take our last dollar and buy the next big commitment during our times who do you think is the greatest investor and why um I think I mean I I hate to be boring on this I do think Buffett is the greatest investor and the reason why I believe that is um you know just that this is a 50 odd year it's a 60-year track record of compounding at 20 plus perc uh with a very modest amount of Leverage um you know in the form of principally insurance float uh and I just don't think there's a record that compares and I also think that what he does actually creates value for the world um you know I think George Soros is an incredible investor but I think what he does as an investor creates no value for the world um no I think what he does as a philanthropist I think is he creates a lot of value um but uh so I think Buffett has the benefit of I mean I think think Heins will be a much better business by the time you know as a result of Buffett's ownership you look at what he did with Geico since he bought it I think he's been uh he's created enormous he's bought businesses well but not incredibly well as he's gotten to be quite large but he's made those businesses much more valuable and I think he's also uh created a lot of messaging that's affected the way people think about executive compensation and derivatives um so I think he's made an enormous contrib ution so I think it's a combination of long-term you know kind of longitud you know and the um and the accomplishments he's had so I think he's the best by far the best even your uh relationship uh when you worked with 3G capital and Burger King what was your initial reaction when 3G teamed up with Berkshire haway to by hins in February this year my initial reaction was they're going to make a lot of money just from the fact that they're 15 Top Line businesses that make over 100 million or from selling those off or more of no look the the way three if you an interesting thing to do would be on a student trip I don't know if you can make it all the way to Miami but if you were to go to the Burger King Headquarters um and you get off on like the eighth floor there's no reception desk you get off the elevator and you walk straight out and the first desk which is a desk you might see in a third grade classroom you know just a flat desk with four legs uh you could probably buy it at Kmart or something is the CEO and then about four Paces uh to his left uh is the CFO and four Paces to his right is the chief marketing officer and literally the entire senior management team is in a completely open space no offices behind his desk is a sheet of paper it's got the five key things he needs to accomplish that year it's got green yellow or Red Dot based on his relative progress this is the CEO's progress and each of the senior reports all around the office have their own metrics on things they need to achieve with commentary so that everyone can see them um the printers are all set automatically to print on both sides you're not allowed to print uh color they um won't allow they never allow presentations where the background is black and the letters are white because it consumes uh too much ink and and ink cartridge I mean the the all the executive coach uh they share rooms at uh you know cheap hotels um if you think about that kind of culture uh compared to the typical big andw Inc Corporation of private jets and uh really a lack of regard to expenses they're just uh going to find you know I think the if I remember the company had did something like $2 billion doll of operating income and had something like $9 billion worth of sgna my guess is that $9 billion number becomes seven in relative short order and the two billion of you know operating income becomes four billion of operating income and they bought the company uh with a lot of Leverage uh even though it was a junk bond issue I think they borrowed money at 4% interest so I think the the total capital structure was something like um 50% debt which was at 4% uh and Buffett put up this 9% uh perpetual ual preferred stock uh and then the equity uh was only uh about a third of the total capital structure So when you buy a business like that with as much leverage as they did and The Leverage is longterm and on average very low cost and safe you know well the 9% is a big coupon if they can't afford to pay it there's no penalty for them paying it it just accumulates and you apply uh you know a cost uh driven restructuring of the company you're going to double and triple the value of that Equity over time so I think they're going to make a fortune and since I'm friends with them they very nicely allowed me to invest in the deal when you started your MBA program you wanted to get into investing but there wasn't necessarily classes or a major for that and um I'm wondering a two-part question first what did what did you do afterwards in order to what industry would give you the best uh skills to get into position you're in now and and the second part of that is with the rise of quantitative hedge funds and where do you see you know good old fash and financial statement analysis and reading thousands of pages of annual reports and 300 Page uh slide PowerPoints like you're so famous for and and really getting into it rather than these quantitative hedge funds thank you sure so I think the best uh thing investing business you can learn by reading you know read everything Warren Buffett's ever written watch every YouTube video he's ever appeared in uh that's a great way to learn about investing but in inves investing is more than just the way to really understand investing is to understand a business and one of the most important skills you need as an investor is distinguishing between a great business a good business a fair business and a bad business and one way to get a sense of the quality of a business is got to work for one so the recommendation I give to people graduating from Business Schools these days is this is the greatest time in in history to work for a startup there lots of incredibly interesting businesses being formed and if you can be one of the early employees you're going to learn a lot about how a business Works how to make payroll how to Market your product how to design something and those skills I think are invaluable first of all you might even find it really interesting you might have joined the next Facebook so that's one thing even if the business fails you learn a ton from that I think that's the best experience you can get ultimately to be a good fundamental investor in terms of the future of fundamental investing uh I don't think everyone can be a passive investor I don't think everyone can be a quantitative uh Trader and uh I think there will be always uh room for fundamental value investing uh because fundamentally stocks are driven and business value is driven by business fundamentals uh not supply and demand for Securities in the short term not the weather on certain days and these various signals that are used by quantitative Traders I'm not saying there's anything wrong with it but I don't think that even quantitative trading Works unless there are a lot of people making fundamental investment decisions
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